22 F. average high on December 26.
33 F. high on December 26, 2014.
4.3" snow fell at St. Cloud Saturday (measured at the prison).
2.3" snow fell at Twin Cities International Airport yesterday.
December 27, 1982: A snowstorm starts across the state, and ultimately dumps 16 inches in the Twin Cities by the time it ends on the 28th.
Don't Write Winter Off Just Yet
Significant Snow Monday?
Well, better late than never. Snow lovers of all ages have been short-changed in recent months. But weather patterns are conspiring to lift the spirits of beleaguered Minnesotans scanning the 7-Day in search of Serious Flakes.
The persistence of the warm signal has been remarkable but - as inevitable as gravity - long nights and deep snows over Canada will send a jolt of cold air south of the border in time for the New Year. The arrival of this Saskatchewan Slap spins up a deep storm Monday, capable of tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Models are converging on a solution, and the normally-reliable ECMWF (the European model) prints out 5-10 inches of snow Monday night close to home. Nothing is definite (it never is) but you've been warned.
I'm predicting a Happy Numb Year with late week highs in the teens; the wind will make it feel like 0F.
Record snows have closed ski resorts in the Pacific Northwest; floods and tornadoes in the south, 70s & 80s out east.
It's been quiet here, but the pattern is shifting. The other shoe (boot) is about to drop.
This is Minnesota. Let it snow!
ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST CLOUD...TO RUSH CITY...TO LADYSMITH WISCONSIN. THIS INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 90 AND THE IOWA BORDER. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...SET TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PROGGED SURFACE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MIRROR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL ARCHETYPE OF A GULF COAST LOW SYSTEM THAT LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN TO BRING THE TWIN CITIES WARNING CRITERIA /6 INCH OR GREATER/ SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE THE SURFACE TRACK IS NOT IN COMPLETE UNISON BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO ENSUE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST TO THE EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND THEREFORE MOST HEALTHY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE ECMWF PAINTS A BULLSEYE OF 10-12 INCH ACCUMULATIONS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WHILE THE GFS SAYS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS /6-8 INCHES/ WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. SO THERE IS DEFINITELY STILL WORK TO BE DONE AS FAR AS MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT OVERALL THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED GIVEN ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER CLUSTERING. WHILE ITS TRICKY TO PIN-POINT LOCATIONS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS NEARING ONE FOOT TWO DAYS IN ADVANCE...THE PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA RECEIVING AT LEAST 6 INCHES/WARNING CRITERIA/ IS AT LEAST 60 PERCENT. THEREFORE A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
GFS Solution. NOAA's GFS model keeps the heaviest snow bands well south and east of MSP; a major snowstorm for Des Moines, the Quad Cities, Rockford, Madison and Chicago. This is why we have gray hair.
Late December Supercells. It was a classic set-up for severe weather: 70-degree dew points flowing out of the Gulf of Mexico (highly unusual for late December), sufficient wind shear from an approaching cold front with supercells spinning up east of the main squall line. The storms raced north/northeast at close to 50 mph; difficult to spot (visually) after dark - the only way to determine the location was lightning flashes and sparking powerlines.
* With a tentative tornado death toll of 22 - more Americans have been killed by twisters in the last 4 days than the entire year, prior to December 23.
Minneapolis, Victoria Take a Fresh Look at How to Deal with Major Flooding. Yes, the rain is falling harder during the warm season and managing too much (or too little) water will be a growing challenge in the years to come. Here's an excerpt from The Star Tribune: "The Twin Cities received record rainfall in 2014, but that was just the start of what experts predict will be more extreme weather for the metro area in the future. As a result, two cities in Hennepin and Carver counties — one large, the other small — are taking a fresh look at ways to manage flooding, as part of a federally funded study. The study, conducted by the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District and the cities of Minneapolis and Victoria, shows the various ways in which each city may be prepared or not for the kind of heavy rain that fell in the summer of 2014..."
Photo credit above: "Trista Boga, center, helps salvage what she can from a friend's home along Highway 178 in Holly Springs, Miss., on Thursday, Dec. 24, 2015. At least 10 people were killed in Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas as spring-like storms mixed with unseasonably warm weather and spawned rare Christmastime tornadoes in the South." (Thomas Wells/The Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal via AP)
Photo credit above: "Vehicles and debris are scattered in an area near Linden, Tenn., Thursday, Dec. 24, 2015. Several people were killed in Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas as spring-like storms mixed with unseasonably warm weather spawned rare Christmastime tornadoes in the South." (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey).
- You don't have to turn your favorite hobby or past time into your full-time living, but you do need to have a passion for your work. If your work is meaningful to you, your work life will be a joy.
- If you can't be passionate about the work itself, be passionate about the reason you do it..."
Moments of Grace in a Grim Year. Here's an excerpt of a timely Op-Ed at The New York Times: "...Humanity being what it is, the world remains a place of suffering and calamity. In 2015, catastrophes in the Middle East spread misery and terror the world over. The United States was brutalized, as ever, by the tyranny of gunfire. Our coarsened politics, so expert at keeping the populace fearful and distraught, got ever louder and cruder in the heat of a presidential race. The strutting and fretting promise only to get worse in 2016. There is ample reason to feel weary and ill at ease. Today, though, it might help to look skyward, upon the Christmas full moon and, through an act of willful optimism, to swivel the mind away from the worst of this fading year. To tune out the rancor and find reasons to believe in the persistence of better values: humility, conciliation, kindness, dignity and reason..." (File image: NASA).
Photo credit above: "A policeman talks to the driver of a motor-tricycle on a road amid heavy haze in Handan city in northern China's Hebei province Thursday, Dec. 24, 2015. Meteorological authorities in Hebei, a province which neighbors Beijing and is regarded as China's most polluted, issued its first red alert for smog on Tuesday as more Chinese cities are issuing their first red alerts for pollution in response to forecasts of heavy smog." (Chinatopix via AP).
TODAY: Partly sunny, cold wind - good travel conditions. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 21
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cold. Low: 9
MONDAY: Winter Storm Watch. Dry AM commute as clouds increase. PM snow, potentially heavy late. Plowable snowfall possible Monday night, in excess of 6". Winds: NE 10-20. High: 25
TUESDAY: Digging out. Snow tapers to flurries. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 24. High: 29
WEDNESDAY: More flurries, another coating. Wake-up: 21. High: 23
NEW YEAR'S EVE: Mostly cloudy, feels like 0F. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 9. High: 18
NEW YEAR'S DAY: Happy Numb Year! Dry, nippy. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 7. High: 17
SATURDAY: Blue sky, not as harsh. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 12. High: near 30 (late)
Photo credit above: "Former President W. George Bush, left, sits with his wife Laura Bush in the stands during an NCAA college basketball game between Sam Houston State and SMU Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015, in Dallas." (AP Photo/LM Otero)
Russia Warming "2.5 Times Quicker" Than Global Average: Ministry. Odd that even the oil-rich Russians aren't denying climate change anymore, while many in the U.S. Congress sit on their hands and swap conspiracy theories. Here's an excerpt from AFP and Yahoo News: "Russia is warming more than twice as fast as the average for the rest of the world, the environment ministry said Friday, sounding an alarm on the rise in floods and wildfires nationwide. A government report on environmental protection said temperatures in Russia had warmed by 0.42 degrees Celsius per decade since 1976, or 2.5 times quicker than the global warming trend of 0.17 degrees. "Climate change leads to growth of dangerous meteorological phenomena," the ministry said in a comment to the report published Friday..."
Photo credit above: "Southern California Gas Co. technical experts try to stop the flow of natural gas leaking from a storage well at the utility's Aliso Canyon facility near the Northridge section of Los Angeles." Javier Mendoza/SoCalGas/AP.