1 F. high in St Cloud Monday.
21 F. average high on January 18.
39 F. high on January 18, 2015.
January 19, 1994: The cold continues from the previous day with a low of -47 at Brainerd and, despite the heat island effect, the Twin Cities' airport hit -27.
Slow Temperature Recovery - A Little Winter Trivia
Data shows an average of 105 snow-producing storms hit the USA every winter. A single snowstorm can dump 39 million tons of snow. Winter cold increases a person’s appetite, which can lower libido. Couples are more than twice as likely to think about splitting up between the holidays and Valentine’s Day.
Nationwide: 74% of all auto accidents occur on wet pavement, 46% when it's raining. Only 17 percent of crashes occur during snow or sleet, 12% on icy pavement - 14% take place on snowy or slushy roads, according to Random History.com.
Yeah, I'm great fun at parties.
Expect quiet weather as temperatures pull out of a relatively fleeting arctic rut. We climb above 0F today; 20s will feel shockingly good tomorrow - there's still a good chance of a thaw by Sunday.
What's missing? Snow. We may get brushed with a coating tonight, but El Nino continues to hijack the jet stream, nudging the biggest, wettest storms well south of town.
We'll see more cold fronts (pretty safe bet) but I suspect the coldest weather of the Winter of '15-16 is behind us now. That wasn't so bad was it?
* Model temperature forecasts above courtesy of Aeris Enterprise.
59 Cold Facts About Winter. Here is a link to the site referenced in the column, Random History.com, with a few factoids that made me do a triple-take:
- The Southern Hemisphere typically has milder winters than the Northern Hemisphere. This is because the Southern Hemisphere has less land and a more maritime climate.
- While it seems counterintuitive, Earth is actually closest to the sun in December, even though winter solstice is the shortest day of the year.
- According to the Guinness World Records, on January 28, 1887, a snowflake 15 inches wide and 8 inches thick fell in Fort Keogh, Montana, making it the largest snowflake ever observed. (Image credit: NOAA).
European Solution. Check out some of these predicted snow depth predictions by Sunday at midnight. I'm not buying it yet - I want to track a few more model runs and see if they converge and agree. But the ECMWF model is fairly impressive, from Richmond and D.C. to New York and Boston. Source: WeatherBell.
Seasonably Cool and Quiet. While the media out east goes nuts with the potential for a cool foot or two of snow west of I-95 Minnesota will be lucky to pick up a coating of snow tonight - no weather drama brewing, just a warming trend. Graphic: WeatherSpark.
El Nino Signal Lingers. The 500 mb GFS forecast valid Monday evening, February 1 shows the core of the jet diverted well south of Minnesota, soaking California and much of the Gulf Coast and eastern USA, while seasonably cold and dry air lingers over the Upper Midwest. This looks seasonably chilly for us: 20s with a few spurts of 30-degree air possible. Source: GrADS:COLA/IGES.
Graphic credit: "Water levels at Naples, FL. January 17th, 2016." Courtesy of National Weather Service via www.nbc29.com Website.
Map credit: "The typical number of winter days with low temperatures below those in Anchorage, Alaska, across the U.S." Credit: Brian Brettschneider
New York City To Get $176 Milllion from U.S. for Storm Protection. Details via The New York Times: "New York City may soon be one step closer to building a new flood protection system around Lower Manhattan to guard against another storm like Hurricane Sandy. Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, said on Monday that the city would be awarded $176 million in federal funding for the proposed project, through a national contest created by the Department of Housing and Urban Development to help communities recover from disasters and better prepare for them..."
Image credit above: "
I define the American Deep State as a hybrid association of elements of government and top-level finance and industry that is able, through campaign financing of elected officials, influence networks and co-option via the promise of lucrative post-government careers, to govern the United States in spite of elections and without reference to the consent of the governed. These operatives use their proximity to power and ability to offer high-paying jobs to government officials to achieve outcomes foreclosed to ordinary citizens..."
Image credit above: "The calculus of the Deep State has been upset by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders." Photograph: Jim Bourg/Reuters.
TODAY: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 10
TUESDAY NIGHT: Light snow and flurries - possible coating. Low: 20
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, thrilled to see average temperatures. High: 25
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, chilly breeze. Wake-up: 20. High: 23
FRIDAY: Bright sunshine - light winds. Winds: NW 3-8. Wake-up: 7. High: 18
SATURDAY: Fading sun, milder breeze kicks in. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 10. High: 28
SUNDAY: Overcast, chance of a thaw. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 22. High: 32
MONDAY: Few flurries, then some sun. Wake-up: 23. High: 27
Image credit above: Shutterstock.
Here's Why Satellites Aren't The Best Way to Measure Global Temperature Trends. Here's the intro to a Guardian article at Raw Story: "Satellites don’t measure the Earth’s temperature. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and his fellow climate contrarians love the satellite data, but as Carl Mears of the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) satellite dataset and Ben Santer recently wrote ,
they are not thermometers in space. The satellite [temperature] data … were obtained from so-called Microwave Sounding Units ( MSUs ), which measure the microwave emissions of oxygen molecules from broad atmospheric layers. Converting this information to estimates of temperature trends has substantial uncertainties.Scientists process the raw microwave data, applying a model to make numerous adjustments in order to come up with a synthetic estimate of the atmospheric temperature..." (Image above: NOAA).
How Reliable are Satellite Temperatures? Here's a link to a YouTube video from Yale Climate Connections: "We often hear from climate deniers that satellite measurements of global temperature are "the best data we have"? But is that true? Here, interviews with leading climate scientists, including Carl Mears, who keeps the dataset that he says Senator Ted Cruz, and others, are misusing."
Scientists process the raw microwave data, applying a model to make numerous adjustments in order to come up with a synthetic estimate of the atmospheric temperature..."they are not thermometers in space. The satellite [temperature] data ... were obtained from so-called Microwave Sounding Units (MSUs), which measure the microwave emissions of oxygen molecules from broad atmospheric layers. Converting this information to estimates of temperature trends has substantial uncertainties.
Graph credit above: "Estimates of the temperature of the lower troposphere from satellites by RSS vs. weather balloons by NOAA (RATPAC)." Created by Tamino at the Open Mind blog.
Photo credit above: "
Warming Could Mean Major Thaw for Alaska Permafrost. Climate Central has the story - here's the intro: "If you’d asked permafrost researcher Vladimir Romanovsky five years ago if he thought the permafrost of the North Slope of Alaska was in danger of substantial thaw this century because of global warming, he would have said no. The permanently frozen soils of the northern reaches of the state are much colder, and so more stable than the warmer, more vulnerable permafrost of interior Alaska, he would have said. “I cannot say it anymore” he told journalists last month at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco..."
Photo credit above: "Thawing permafrost caused significant damage to the Dalton Highway in the North Slope of Alaska in June 2015." Credit: Alaska DOT
Cancer and Climate Change. The New York Times has a poignant and powerful Op-Ed; here's the introduction: "I’M a climate scientist who has just been told I have Stage 4 pancreatic cancer. This diagnosis puts me in an interesting position. I’ve spent much of my professional life thinking about the science of climate change, which is best viewed through a multidecadal lens. At some level I was sure that, even at my present age of 60, I would live to see the most critical part of the problem, and its possible solutions, play out in my lifetime. Now that my personal horizon has been steeply foreshortened, I was forced to decide how to spend my remaining time. Was continuing to think about climate change worth the bother?..." (Illustration credit: Tatsuro Kiuchi).
Photo credit above: " EMILY MICHOT MIAMI HERALD STAFF.
Why Climate Change is a Moral Concern for the Religious Community. An Op-Ed at NJ.com resonated; here's a clip: "...This is to say that our current commitments to reduce carbon emissions fall short, and we continue to accelerate our consumption of natural resources. God calls his people to be stewards of all natural creation. Therefore, we must protect the Earth in any way we can and push towards a more sustainable future. As humans, we are deeply interconnected and dependent on the Earth. Climate change is not an isolated phenomenon and is more than rising sea levels or droughts. Climate change has social, health, urban, and agricultural implications. Thus, it is crucial for everyone to play a part in tackling this for the well-being of others and of the world..."