36 F. average high on March 11.
56 F. high on March 11, 2015.
March 12, 2009: The record low temperature for Minnesota for the month of March is set at -35. St. Cloud also sets a new daily record low of -15, breaking the previous record of -12 that was set in 1956. The high temperature in St. Cloud was also only 11 degrees on this date, which also set a new record for the low maximum temperature. This broke the previous record low maximum temperature of 12 degrees that was set in 1896.
March 12, 1990: The temperature at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport hits a record-setting 69 degrees.
Minnesota's Weather Is Springing Forward Too
When your kids are young you teach them. A few decades later they begin to teach you.
My two 20-something sons have taught their old man some eternal truths. Less really is more. Pay for what you actually use. Waste is for dummies.
And as a rule younger people don't push back on evidence, facts and science. They see what's happening - and realize they're the generation that will clean up our messes. Which leaves me hopeful for the future.
Today's blog includes a new NAS report, linking a warming climate with (some) weather extremes; echoes of a 1964 Surgeon General study linking smoking with cancer and heart disease. More frequent blips of warmth - more rain than snow events in March are symptoms of larger trends.
Today will be the day to wander the streets in wonder; 60s under a fading sun. Showers keep us "cooler" tomorrow (only 50s) and ECMWF guidance isn't nearly as impressed with the potential for a big, slushy storm next week. We cool off into the 30s and 40s, but the risk of snow has decreased.
I see a week of jacket weather; 50s returning after March 25 or so.
* 3 PM Friday temperatures courtesy of Aeris Map Platform (AMP).
Today's record high in the Twin Cities is 69F, set in 1990. We may come very close.
4 PM Today. NOAA's 12 KM NAM model shows mid-60s across much of central and southern Minnesota, with an outside shot at 70F if clouds don't increase from the south too quickly. Perfectly normal for early May. Map: AerisWeather.
Showers Hold Off Until Tonight. Here's a product that shows future road conditions in hourly increments, rain likely across much of Iowa, but showers don't reach the metro until after 3 AM Sunday morning. Source: AerisWeather.
Not Buying It Yet. NOAA's GFS model continues to predict accumulating snow for parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday as colder air drains south. A few inches just north and east of MSP can't be ruled out, but the ECMWF (European) model isn't nearly as impressive in terms of snow.
Map credit above: "500-mb map for 00Z (7:00 pm EST) Thursday, March 10, 2016, as initialized in the GFS model." Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.
Parade of Storms from Space. High-resolution visible satellite imagery from Friday shows the nearly stationary storm over Mexico responsible for historic flooding across Louisiana - a conga-line of storms lined up for the west coast. Source: CIMSS, University of Wisconsin.
New Study Shows Severe Tornado Outbreaks Are On The Rise. Phil Plait has a good overview of new research findings at Slate; here's a clip: "...In general, seeing the variance in the number of tornadoes increase as the number of tornadoes per outbreaks increases is natural; it’s seen in other systems in biology and physics as well. But the variance is increasing four times faster than the mean number of tornadoes per outbreak, and that is unusual. According to the study authors, in most systems the variance increases roughly twice as fast. Again, this implies very strongly that something is going on in the environment that is energizing these outbreaks..."
Graphic credit above: "The number of outbreaks per year is steady within statistical uncertainty (top), but the number of tornadoes per outbreak is on the rise (middle), and the variance is increasing rapidly." Tippett, M. K. & Cohen J. E. (from the paper).
Here's What Climate Change Has Done To The Season Formerly Known as Winter. This winter El Nino amplified the warmth, but keep in mind that flowers blooming in Minnesota in March, 2012 had nothing to do with El Nino. These glimpses of unusual warmth will become more frequent, especially during the winter months. Here's an excerpt from Vice News: "...While scientists hesitate to pin any one event on climate change, the pattern over the past few decades has been for winters to get warmer and warmer, said Katharine Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. "We're still going to have cold weather, cold temperatures, snow and ice," Hayhoe said. "But what we're used to is changing. So nowadays, when we get a winter that was the typical winter when we were little, we say 'Oh my goodness, what an unusual winter.' Well, that used to be the normal winter. "Winters like this winter that are so far above average are reminders that things really are changing and we are seeing things that are different than they used to be before," she said..."
Image credit: Photo by Laurent Gillieron/EPA.
February temperature anomalies above: ECMWF.
GFS Surface Temperature Anomaly valid this morning, courtesy of Climate Reanalyzer.
Investors in Miami Are Buying Up Land At Higher Elevations. Rent, don't buy, Unless you have money to burn (or flood). Here's an excerpt from The Atlantic's CityLab: "...Even if global emissions dropped dramatically today, the city would still be locked in for 15 feet of sea-level rise over the next 200 years, says Jeff Onsted, an associate professor at Florida International University’s Sea Level Solutions Center. The rising water won’t be produced by a single weather event, but will gradually become a part of residents’ lives. And while major cities such as New York can build seawalls, Miami is defenseless because it’s built on porous limestone that would allow ocean water to come up from under the city. Already, yards and streets remain flooded even days after rainstorms have rolled through the city. But this looming threat isn’t detectable in the massive ongoing construction along the waterfront in Miami..."
File photo: Lynne Sladky / AP.
Photo credit above: "
Photo credit: Fogcat5/Flickr
Image credit above: "The sun's rays can hit some roads for up to 90 percent of the daylight hours, so companies in Europe and the U.S. are experimenting with building solar panels along or above roads. But are such projects worth the cost? In France one company is hoping to distinguish itself—and reduce costs—with solar panels that are laid directly on the pavement."
Photo credit above: "
Republican businessman Jay Faison is searching for the middle ground. His organization, ClearPath, aims to convince conservative politicians that clean energy is a winning cause. This week, ClearPath opened offices in Washington and launched a $1 million digital ad campaign to promote conservative clean-energy principles. It’s part of a broader multi-million-dollar foundation and super PAC aimed at driving GOP support for “common-sense” solutions to energy and climate problems. Winning over his fellow party members may not be easy, but Mr. Faison says embracing clean energy is critical to the future of both his party and his country..."
Photo credit: "This May 6, 2013 file photo shows a wind turbine farm near Glenrock, Wyo." Matt Young/AP/File.
Photo credit: Metacrotex (photograph by Kenneth Pinto)
Photo credit: "
Because news reporting is serious business (and nobody takes it more seriously than me), this is a video from a local news report about the recent tornado damage in Malakoff, Texas that gets interrupted when the reporter spots a dog sitting on a ride-on lawnmower. Honestly though, I would have done the same thing. "Gotten distracted?" What? No. I meant sit on that lawnmower if I was a dog..."
Photo credit: Adam Jones.
TODAY: Mild sun, clouds increase by afternoon. Winds: S 8-13. High: 65
SATURDAY NIGHT: Showers possible. Low: 50
SUNDAY: Few showers, a bit humid and slightly cooler. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 56
MONDAY: Sunny peeks, still mild. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 50. High: 63
TUESDAY: Showery rains likely. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 52. High: 55 (falling)
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, risk of a jacket. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 38. High: 47
THURSDAY: Raw, few sprinkles or flurries. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High: 42
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun, March-like. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 29. High: 39
* More perspective on the new NAS study from Chris Mooney at The Washington Post.
Image credit: National Academy of Sciences, 2016.
Graphic credit: NOAA ESRL.
Map credit: "
Marco Rubio and John Kasich Illustrate Divide on Climate Change. Memo to Marco: we are already - inadvertently - flavoring the weather, and rising seas will encroach farther into your hometown in the coming years. When you need a kayak or gondola to get around Miami Beach will you finally acknowledge the obvious? Here's an excerpt at The New York Times: "Mayor Tomás Pedro Regalado of Miami asked a question, through Jake Tapper, about climate change, fearing that rising sea levels as a result of climate change would cause flooding in the streets of low-lying cities, like his own. Mr. Rubio, saying he shared the concern of South Florida’s future, gave an answer many on the Republican side agree with: that while the climate may be changing, there is no evidence that it is from humans, and there is no way to enforce the other countries of the world to comply with climate regulations. But Gov. John Kasich of Ohio didn’t see them as mutually exclusive..."
Politically speaking, it’s always easier to shell out money for a disaster that has already happened, with clearly identifiable victims, than to invest money in protecting against something that may or may not happen in the future. Healy and Malhotra found that voters reward politicians for spending money on post-disaster cleanup, but not for investing in disaster prevention, and it’s only natural that politicians respond to this incentive.
The Unexpected Reaction Farmers Could Have to Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of a story at ThinkProgress that got my attention: "...These farmers, they’re operating on a razor’s edge,” Avery Cohn, assistant professor of environment and resource policy at Tufts, told ThinkProgress. “They need to get their crops in the ground as soon as they can, they are planting short cycle soy varieties that they need to harvest at the peak of the rainy season, and then they need to plant that corn at the peak of the rainy season, and then hope that the rainy season lasts long enough so the corn gets enough water.” If climate change leads to decreasing yields, farmers might respond by taking a certain amount of their land out of rotation, because it’s no longer profitable. Or farmers might decide not to plant a second crop — a technique known as double cropping — and instead focus on getting the most out of their primary crop, another decision that could lead to reductions in overall agricultural yields..."
File photo: AP Photo/Andre Penner.
Photo credit above: " " Credit Zach Gibson/The New York Times.