36 F. average high on March 10.
61 F. high on March 10, 2015.
March 11, 2009: Cold conditions arrive, with a new record for the lowest maximum temperature in St. Cloud for this date. The high temperature in St. Cloud was only 4 degrees, which broke the previous record lowest maximum temperature of 5 degrees that was set in 1948.
March 11, 1878: Lake Minnetonka becomes ice-free due to one of the warmest winters on record.
Spring Fever Alert - Cold Correction Next Week
"Spring is nature's way of saying 'Let's party!'" said the late, great Robin Williams. Actually, I think he shouted it. You may be tempted to shout for joy as the mercury hits 60F each of the next 5 days. Not bad for the second week of March.
To put things into stark perspective over 8 inches of snow fell on March 11, 1962. On this date in 1948 the Twin Cities woke up to a refreshing -27F air temperature. That's what COULD be floating outside your window right now.
Saturday still looks like the better day to emerge from extended hibernation, take a walk or bike ride; soaking up a mild whiff of May in March.
The same storm flooding Louisiana with 20-25 inches of rain (2 tropical storm's worth) will spin up a few rain showers here Sunday.
Steadier rain Tuesday precedes a push of cooler air next week. Expect 40s, maybe 30s in 7 days with a few obligatory snow flurries to remind you it's March. At least on paper. A mild, zonal, Pacific-modified flow returns by late March.
Not as toasty as March of 2012, but close. Another 7-month boating season in Minnesota this year? Looks like it.
Windiest Days: Tuesday - Wednesday. GFS guidance shows sustained winds of 38 mph Tuesday night, hinting at gusts as high as 40-50 mph as a potentially big storm winds up close to home. Details remain sketchy, but we're due for a "storm". Source: NOAA and Aeris Enterprise.
* Details on historic flooding underway in northwestern Louisiana from The Shreveport Times.
Image credit above:
Animation credit: NOAA CPC.
New Study Shows Severe Tornado Outbreaks Are On The Rise. Phil Plait has a good overview of new research findings at Slate; here's a clip: "...In general, seeing the variance in the number of tornadoes increase as the number of tornadoes per outbreaks increases is natural; it’s seen in other systems in biology and physics as well. But the variance is increasing four times faster than the mean number of tornadoes per outbreak, and that is unusual. According to the study authors, in most systems the variance increases roughly twice as fast. Again, this implies very strongly that something is going on in the environment that is energizing these outbreaks..."
Graphic credit above: "The number of outbreaks per year is steady within statistical uncertainty (top), but the number of tornadoes per outbreak is on the rise (middle), and the variance is increasing rapidly." Tippett, M. K. & Cohen J. E. (from the paper).
Map credit: "
It's Official: This Was America's Warmest Winter on Record. More perspective from Eric Holthaus at Slate; here's a clip: "...NOAA blames the recent warm weather on a record-strength El Niño “and other climate patterns,” most notably, global warming. As a whole, this winter in the lower 48 was about 4.6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average: a sharp contrast to the previous back-to-back frigid polar vortex winters, especially in the Northeast. But that doesn’t mean there was a lack of wintry weather: New York City, for example, had one of its warmest and snowiest winters on record, an odd combination to say the least..."
Graphic credit above: "Winters are warming, and this was the warmest one yet." NOAA.
GFS Surface Temperature Anomaly valid this morning, courtesy of Climate Reanalyzer.
Investors in Miami Are Buying Up Land At Higher Elevations. Rent, don't buy, Unless you have money to burn (or flood). Here's an excerpt from The Atlantic's CityLab: "...Even if global emissions dropped dramatically today, the city would still be locked in for 15 feet of sea-level rise over the next 200 years, says Jeff Onsted, an associate professor at Florida International University’s Sea Level Solutions Center. The rising water won’t be produced by a single weather event, but will gradually become a part of residents’ lives. And while major cities such as New York can build seawalls, Miami is defenseless because it’s built on porous limestone that would allow ocean water to come up from under the city. Already, yards and streets remain flooded even days after rainstorms have rolled through the city. But this looming threat isn’t detectable in the massive ongoing construction along the waterfront in Miami..."
File photo: Lynne Sladky / AP.
Extreme Weather Disasters Since 2010. A short window of data, but an interesting overview of state and national trends in recent years, courtesy of Environment America: "Every year, weather-related disasters injure or kill hundreds of Americans and cause billions of dollars in damage. Many of the risks posed by extreme weather will likely increase in a warming world. Scientists have already noted increases in extreme precipitation and heat waves as global warming raises temperatures and exacerbates weather extremes. The stories shared on the map show how global warming is affecting our lives as individuals. The negative impacts of global warming are felt differently by different people, depending their age, health and circumstances. For some, record heat can be life-threatening, while large snow storms can leave others trapped inside..."
Don't Mess With Ostriches. Some things you just have to see to believe. Who knew ostriches could run this fast? Remember that the next time you pass one on a bike. Here's an amazing video clip from The Telegraph: "Headcam footage shows an ostrich running at a terrifying 50km/h after a group of cyclists in South Africa."
Photo credit above: "
Photo credit: "
Because news reporting is serious business (and nobody takes it more seriously than me), this is a video from a local news report about the recent tornado damage in Malakoff, Texas that gets interrupted when the reporter spots a dog sitting on a ride-on lawnmower. Honestly though, I would have done the same thing. "Gotten distracted?" What? No. I meant sit on that lawnmower if I was a dog..."
TODAY: Outdoor lunch-worthy. Sunny and spectacular. Winds: S 10-20+ High: 63
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear and mild. Low: 43
SATURDAY: Nicer day, fading sunshine late. Winds: S 7-12. High: 65
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers moving in. Low: 49
SUNDAY: Cloudier & humid, few showers likely. Winds: SE 8-13. High: near 60
MONDAY: Dry out - peeks of lukewarm sun. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 51. High: 63
TUESDAY: Rain, possible T-storms. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 53. High: near 60, then falling late
WEDNESDAY: Rain may change to snow, very windy! Winds: NW 15-40+ Wake-up: 39. High: 42
THURSDAY: Raw, few sprinkles or flurries. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 38
Photo credit above: " " Credit Zach Gibson/The New York Times.
Politically speaking, it’s always easier to shell out money for a disaster that has already happened, with clearly identifiable victims, than to invest money in protecting against something that may or may not happen in the future. Healy and Malhotra found that voters reward politicians for spending money on post-disaster cleanup, but not for investing in disaster prevention, and it’s only natural that politicians respond to this incentive.
The Unexpected Reaction Farmers Could Have to Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of a story at ThinkProgress that got my attention: "...These farmers, they’re operating on a razor’s edge,” Avery Cohn, assistant professor of environment and resource policy at Tufts, told ThinkProgress. “They need to get their crops in the ground as soon as they can, they are planting short cycle soy varieties that they need to harvest at the peak of the rainy season, and then they need to plant that corn at the peak of the rainy season, and then hope that the rainy season lasts long enough so the corn gets enough water.” If climate change leads to decreasing yields, farmers might respond by taking a certain amount of their land out of rotation, because it’s no longer profitable. Or farmers might decide not to plant a second crop — a technique known as double cropping — and instead focus on getting the most out of their primary crop, another decision that could lead to reductions in overall agricultural yields..."
File photo: AP Photo/Andre Penner.
Highest Ever Annual Rise in Carbon Dioxide Levels Reached. New Scientist has an update; here's the intro: "It is not just temperature records that are falling. The average carbon dioxide level recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, during February 2016 was 404.02 parts per million – 3.76 ppm higher than the average for February 2015, according to preliminary figures. That is the biggest ever increase over a 12-month period. The previous 12-month record at Mauna Loa was 3.70 ppm, from September 1997 to September 1998..."
Photo credit above: "Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii." NOAA.
Darkening Greenland Ice Sheet Melts Faster. Here's an excerpt from Climate Home: "Greenland is getting darker. Climatology’s great white hope, the biggest block of ice in the northern hemisphere, is losing its reflectivity. According to new research, the island’s dusty snows are absorbing ever more solar radiation, which is likely to accelerate the rate at which the icecap melts. The Greenland icecap covers 1.7 million square kilometres and contains enough ice to raise sea levels by seven metres. Right now, the rate of melting is on the increase, and meltwater flowing off the icecap could be raising sea levels by 0.6mm a year..."
Photo credit above: "Greenland’s white ice sheet is not as pristine as it looks." (Pic: NASA/Flickr).