49 F. high in St. Cloud Friday.
44 F. average high on March 25.
38 F. high on March 25, 2015.
0" snow on the ground at MSP International Airport and St. Cloud.
March 26, 2012: This is the record early ice-out date on Mille Lacs Lake.
March 26, 2007:
Temperature records are shattered across much of central and southern
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. The following records were set: 69
at Alexandria, 75 at Mankato, 77 at Little Falls, 79 at St. Cloud, 81
at Minneapolis-St. Paul and Eau Claire, 82 at Redwood Falls, and 83 at
Springfield.
Spring Has Sprung, But Don't Pack Away the (Heavy) JacketsI
forgot how much I missed the sound of chirping birds, a gentle rain
pattering on the roof, kids laughing down the street. Spring is in the
air, but it appears Old Man Winter won't go without a scuffle; one last
polar punch is a week away.
According to climate guru Mark Seeley
March is the 6th warmest since 1895. He writes: "Even more remarkable is
the departure in temperature for the past 12 months, going back to
April of 2015. The past 12 months have been the warmest in state
history, and by a considerable margin."
Your daffodils are happy about today's rain: .25 to .50 inches may fall. Skies clear on Easter
Sunday and 50s return early next week, even a shot at 60F and T-storms late
Tuesday into
Wednesday.
Models
bring a shot of truly Siberian air into Minnesota next weekend; a
string of days in the 20s and 30s with a formidable wind chill. The
first week of April kicks off on a blustery, November-like note.
The
sun angle is too high in the sky for it to stay Nanook for long. By the
second week of April a zonal, west-to-east wind flow tempts the mercury
into the 50s.
Map credit above: WeatherBell. Don't panic (much). It won't be -35F;
temperature anomalies
are forecast to be 35 degrees colder than average next Sunday, April 3,
meaning single digits and teens in the morning; highs probably holding
in the 20s. Above zero. We can handle that.
Past 12 Months: Warmest in State History. Dr. Mark Seeley explains in this week's installment of
Minnesota WeatherTalk: "...
Statewide
temperatures so far this month would rank March as the 6th warmest in
state history back to 1895. Even more remarkable is the departure in
temperature for the past 12 months, going back to April of 2015. The
past 12 months have been the warmest in state history, and by a
considerable margin..."
A Rainy Streak.
NOAA's 12 KM NAM model shows another surge of showery rains later today
- the atmosphere too stable for thunder and lightning. Source:
AerisWeather.
Showery Today - Midweek Soaker? The 00z NAM model prints out about .4" of rain today, but an additional 1"+ Wednesday into early Thursday of next week.
Candy-Coating of Slush.
NAM guidance still hints at a slushy coating from near Sauk Rapids to
Brainerd and Duluth Saturday night as the atmosphere cools. Just enough
to remind locals it's still March.
The Big Tumble.
One should never get too complacent in March (or early April for that
matter). GFS guidance shows single digit wake-up temperatures a week
from Sunday; highs recovering into the 40s and 50s within 12-14 days.
You're about to get more mileage out of that heavy jacket - at least for
a few days.
Couple of Rain Events - Then February Flashback.
European model guidance suggests highs near 60F Tuesday before a more
significant midweek storm (mostly rain, possibly ending as a little wet
snow in the metro). Temperatures drop by a rock one week from today,
holding in the 20s next Sunday. Source: WeatherSpark.
Deep Breaths.
The sun angle is too high now for it to stay cold for an extended
period of time. I still anticipate moderating temperatures by the second
week of April; more 50s with a shot at 60F. Big swings.
"Landicane?"
A meteorology buddy in Atlanta sent me this jaw-dropping radar
composite of the MCS (meso-convective system) that roared across the
southeast Thursday with 40-60 mph winds and flooding rains. Check out
the "eye". I can't say I've ever seen that before. What the....???
Average Year for Snow is Looking Pretty Nice Across U.S. West. Here's an excerpt from
Bloomberg Business: "...
A year ago, just about 60 percent of 11 western states suffered some degree of drought, according to the latest report of the U.S. Drought Monitor
in Lincoln, Nebraska. That has dropped to just over 34 percent. That
doesn’t mean things aren’t precarious. When the parts of the West listed
as abnormally dry are added to the total, almost 68 percent of the land is parched. In California,
where drought is moving into its fifth year, just under 99 percent of
the state reaches that threshold. El Nino rain has helped some of its
reservoirs reach historical average levels, but most are still low..."
Map credit:
U.S. Drought Monitor.
Here Comes La Nina - Or Does It? What History, Models and Experts Tell Us. Bob Henson has an interesting perspective at
WunderBlog; here's an excerpt: "...
What’s
known as the spring predictability barrier makes this the toughest time
of the year to anticipate how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
will behave. ENSO refers to the coupled atmosphere-ocean process that
swings between El Niño and La Niña. About half of the time, neutral
conditions prevail, with El Niño and La Niña roughly splitting the other
50% of the time. El Niños have been more frequent overall in recent
decades, but La Niñas are more likely to recur for two or three years in
a row..."
Image credit above: "
Projections of
various forecast models for the evolution of SSTs in the Niño3.4 region
over the next few months. These forecasts were compiled and released in
mid-March. El Niño is in place when SSTs are at least 0.5°C above
average for five overlapping three-month periods. La Niña is defined the
same way, except that SSTs are below rather than above average. The
bottom axis shows abbreviations for three-month intervals (e.g., JJA is
June-July-August)." Image credit:
International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
How a Monster El Nino Transforms the World's Weather.
WXshift has a good overview of El Nino's domino effect on the world's weather patterns; here's the intro: "
From
crippling drought in southern Africa to a record number of February
tornadoes in the U.S. Southeast, an exceptionally strong El Niño has
been making headlines around the globe as it tampers with the world’s
weather. While the event has begun its slow decline, those wide-ranging
impacts will continue to be felt for weeks and months to come — good
news for those in California, who need El Niño-fueled rains, but bad
news for the many areas, like Indonesia, which is suffering from deep
drought, food and water shortages, and wildfires. Already this year, El
Niño-related weather has cost billions of dollars in damage and left
some 100 million people facing food and water shortages..."
We've Come a Long Way Since the First Tornado Forecast.
Hard to believe the word "tornado" was banned from predictions for the
longest time - for fear of inciting public panic. Jason Meyers at
ABC15 explains: "...
The
National Weather Service gives people an average of 13 minutes warning
time for a tornado. But it hasn't always been that way. It's hard to
believe there was a time when the National Weather Service and its
predecessors went as far as banning the use of the word "tornado" in
official forecasts and warnings. The thoughts in the early days of the
Signal Service and the US Weather Bureau was that using the word
"tornado" would cause more panic and harm than an actual tornado..."
New Research Links Radar Data to Tornado Intensity.
This makes sense intuitively: the higher debris is lofted into the
atmosphere, the more extreme the tornado circulation. Meteorologist
Tyler Jankoski filed a good story at
NBC Connecticut; here's a clip: "...
Researchers
at the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi have found a
strong correlation between the height of tornado debris signatures and
the approximate strength of tornadoes. Tornadoes are classified as weak
(EF0 and EF1), strong (EF2 and EF3) or violent (EF4 and EF5). Many
studies have at least noted the potential for a relationship between
TDS height and tornado strength, including Schultz et al. in 2012 and
Bodine et al. in 2013. Most recently in 2015, Chad Entremont and Daniel
Lamb analyzed every TDS starting back in 2010, when dual polarization
upgrades on the U.S. radar network started..."
Scientists Crown the Lightning Capital of the World. And here I thought it was Africa's Congo - here's an excerpt from
CityLab: "
Astraphobes who dive under their beds at the first rumblings of a storm should stay away from Venezuela’s Lake Maracaibo,
as it’s just been verified as the most lightning-cursed place on the
planet. Researchers from Brazil’s Universidade de São Paulo, NASA, and
elsewhere poured through 16 years of space observations to give this honorific to what some call South America’s biggest lake (technically, it’s more of a bay or lagoon).
Thunderstorms occur an average of 297 nights a year, triggered by a
“deep nocturnal convection driven by locally forced convergent flow,”
according to a study in this month’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society..."
Photo credit above: "
Lightning crackles over Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela in this long-exposure shot from 2014."
(Jorge Silva/Reuters).
Wind Power Transmission in Plains Earns U.S. Approval.
This is a big step in getting clean, renewable sources of electricity
from where it's been generated to where it's needed, as reported by The New York Times: "...Energy
officials have been urging significant extensions and upgrades to the
nation’s transmission system for years but there has been little new
construction since the 1980s. And although the push to enhance the grid
has gained urgency as renewables have spread, thousands of miles of
long-haul lines have not yet gained approval. Allowing the project,
called Plains and Eastern, to go ahead could encourage the spread of
low-carbon electricity and increase system reliability at a reasonable
cost to consumers, the department said..."
Image credit above: "American Wind Energy Association; the companies." By The New York Times.
Why Power Markets Tilt Toward Renewables Even With Cheap Oil. Here's an excerpt from Bloomberg Business: "...The
chart above shows the billions of dollars flowing to renewables in both
developing and developed economies. It indicates the industry has
shifted from a plaything of rich industrial nations into a growing power
source for emerging economies -- especially places that must import
fossil fuels. Government programs to cut pollution in Beijing and New Delhi are one driver. Another is the need for electricity in rural areas far away from a reliable power grid..."
We've Barely Begun to Tap The Sun's Mighty Power. Here's a clip from
Mother Jones: "...
Utility-scale solar provides about twice as much power
as rooftop panels, so the full potential of solar is likely even higher
than what NREL describes in this report. Even 39 percent, though, would
be a revolutionary change from where we are now; despite solar's rapid
growth in the last several years, it still accounts for less than 1
percent of electricity consumption. Coal, which is still the nation's
number-one energy source, commands about 32 percent of the market. So
the future that NREL is envisioning here would basically flip our energy
makeup on its head. The most potential exists in sunny states,
obviously, but also in states that have relatively low electricity
needs. The map below shows what percentage of each state's power could
be derived from rooftop panels if they were fully utilized..."
What The NFL's Concussion Scandal Has In Common with Tobacco and ExxonMobil.
Grist connects the dots; here's an excerpt: "...
If
this sounds familiar, it’s because the NFL’s techniques are like those
employed for decades by Big Tobacco to confuse consumers over the
scientific research on smoking. In fact, the Times reports, the NFL
hired tobacco lawyers, advisors, and lobbyists to help them do exactly
that. In the 1990s, for instance, the league employed Dorothy Mitchell,
an attorney who had also represented the Tobacco Institute in lawsuits
over the health effects of cigarettes and secondhand smoke. All this
sounds remarkably like another industry that we now know borrowed
tactics from Big Tobacco: oil and gas..." (Image credit: Keith Allison/Flickr Creative Commons).
Bezos Prime. Adam Lashinsky has a revealing article about Amazon's Jeff Bezos at
Fortune. The reincarnation of Steve Jobs? Here's an excerpt: "...
He’s
got every reason to cha-cha. More has gone right for Bezos lately than
perhaps at any other time during his two-decade run in the public eye.
His company is expanding internationally and spreading its hydra-headed
product and service offerings in unexpected new directions. Bezos, too,
is evolving. Always a fierce competitor and stern taskmaster, he has
begun to show another side. With the Post, he’s taken a seat at the
civic-leadership table. And with his various projects Bezos is also
becoming known as a visionary on topics beyond dreaming up new ways to
gut the profit margins of Amazon’s many foes..." (Photograph by Wesley Mann).
Why We Ignore The Litany of Deadly Side Effects in TV Ads for Drugs.
If you watch the network news it's almost all drug ads. They all sound
tempting, but which body parts will fall off when I swallow that pill?
Here's an excerpt from Alternet and
Salon: "
Who
doesn’t laugh at drug commercials with their before-and-after scenes of
life-changing improvements accompanied by numerous terrifying side
effects? But these drug ads continue because they work. Beyond the overt
manipulations, there are more covert ones—including techniques that
diminish the impact of the required warning section. Former advertising
executive Jerry Mander observed that his ex-colleagues in advertising
don’t care if you think their commercial is ridiculous or even false,
because the image of the product goes into your head anyway, and your
insides will always carry this “neuronal billboard"..." (Image:
change.org).
“He who slings mud generally loses ground.” – Adlai E. Stevenson
SATURDAY: Showery rains likely. Winds: E 5-10. High: 46
SATURDAY NIGHT: Showers linger, turning cooler. Low: 32
EASTER SUNDAY: Partly sunny, pleasant Easter. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 48
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, April-like. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 35. High: 57
TUESDAY: Balmy for March, late T-storms? Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 42. High: near 60
WEDNESDAY: Heavier rain possible. Mixed rain/snow Wednesday night? Winds: S 15-30. Wake-up: 48. High: 56
THURSDAY: Wet snow tapers, slow clearing. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 43
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, chilly again. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 32. High: 42
Climate Stories...
Carbon Emissions Highest in 66 Million Years, Since Dinosaur Age. Here's the lead to a story at
Reuters: "
The
rate of carbon emissions is higher than at any time in fossil records
stretching back 66 million years to the age of the dinosaurs, according
to a study on Monday that sounds an alarm about risks to nature from
man-made global warming.
Scientists wrote that the pace of emissions even eclipses the onset of
the biggest-known natural surge in fossil records, 56 million years ago,
that was perhaps driven by a release of frozen stores of greenhouse
gases beneath the seabed..."
Photo credit above: "
A
chimney is seen in front of residential buildings during a polluted day
in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China, January 21, 2016." Reuters/Stringer.
Meteorologists Overwhelmingly Conclude Climate Change is Real and Human-Caused. Here's an excerpt from Jason Samenow at
Capital Weather Gang: "...
Seventeen percent
of respondents to the survey said their views about climate change had
changed over the past five years and, of those, most (87 percent) said
they are more convinced than ever that human-caused changes are
happening. They were most persuaded by new peer-reviewed
studies, the growing scientific consensus on climate change, and
evidence of climate change where they live. “[I]t does appear that more
meteorologists are now more convinced that human-caused climate change
is happening,” said Ed Maibach, lead author of the survey findings and
director of George Mason’s Center for Climate Change Communication..."
Map credit above: "
Winter 2015-2016 temperature differences from average over globe." (NOAA).
96% of American Meteorological Society Members Think Climate Change is Happening, Says New Report. Dr. Marshall Shepherd has details at
Forbes; here's a clip: "...
The new survey conducted for the AMS by Dr. Ed Maibach (George Mason University) and colleagues clarified several questions. Preliminary results are now available.
Key results from the report summary: Nearly all AMS members (96%) think
climate change -as defined by AMS-is happening with almost 89% stating
that they are either “extremely” or “very sure” it is happening. Only 1%
think climate change is not happening. A large majority of AMS members
indicated that human activity is causing at least a portion of the
changes in the climate over the past 50 years (see summary for
details)….Conversely, 5% think the climate is caused largely or entirely
by natural events, 6% say they don’t know…."
South Florida's Mayors Face Reality of Rising Seas and Climate Change.
For Miami, The Florida Keys, even Naples and Ft. Myers, it's gone from
theory to "happening right here - right now". Here's a snippet of an
Op-Ed by Fred Grim at
The Miami Herald: "...
This
sense of emergency shared by the mayors makes for a bizarre contrast to
our state leadership. Gov. Rick Scott has donned the mantel as
Florida’s denier in chief. (Happily proving it
with his veto pen.) Florida’s other leading Florida Republican, Sen.
Rubio, once talked about making Florida “the Silicon Valley” of green
energy. All that was abandoned when the ever changeable Rubio’s ambition
for higher office led him to embrace the tea party’s militant denial of
climate science. Rubio must find it a bit disconcerting as he limps
back home from his failed political campaign to a community where the
civic leadership, Republican and Democrat, has utterly rejected his “I
am not a scientist” approach to the climate crisis..."
Image credit: "
Miami
Beach has put into action an aggressive and expensive plan to combat
the effects of sea level rise. As some streets keep flooding from recent
king tide events, the city continues rolling out its plan of attack and
will spend between $400-$500 million over the next five years doing so." Emily Michot.
How the U.S. Military's Not Waiting To Find Out if Climate Change is an Existential Risk. Here's a clip from a story at The Center for Climate & Security that got my attention: "...Though
the term “existential risk” is not found in the directive, the fact
that the whole Pentagon organization, across the military readiness,
operations and strategy spectrum, will need to put in place specific
actions to adapt to climate change, suggests that the issue has reached a
level of strategic significance that cannot be ignored. In this
context, Johnson interviewed the Center for Climate and Security’s Christine Parthemore to get a better look at the substance of the DoD’s concerns about climate change risks, and what drives them. From the article:
“You
can’t be on the ground in Asia, Africa, or the Middle East and not see
what’s happening,” said Christine Parthemore, a former Pentagon official
who now serves as the executive director of the Center for Climate
& Security, a think tank.
“I think that is why we’ve
seen so many defense, intelligence, and diplomatic leaders start growing
concerned about the security implications of climate change far earlier
than our political leaders, academic researchers, or the general
public,” she said..."
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/fred-grimm/article68092452.html#storylink=cpy
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/fred-grimm/article68092452.html#storylink=cpy
Spike in Global Temperature Fuels Climate Change Fears.
According to climate scientist Michael Mann about 50% of the recent
(historic) warming is coming from greenhouse gases, 25% from El Nino and
another 25% from natural cycles and circulations. El Nino is winding
down, but we continue to track unusual warmth. Here's an excerpt at
The Sydney Morning Herald: "...
Complacency
should be avoided, therefore, when the mercury's record run inevitably
ends in coming months as the El Nino unwinds. "It's important to take
this hot spike as a reminder that this is a really urgent problem" said
Professor Rahmstorf, who until last week was also a visiting
professorial fellow at the University of NSW. "We are running out of
time to avoid a 2-degree world." The UK Met Office estimated last year we are roughly half way there, based on the estimated average of the 1850-1900 period..."
Image credit above: "
Each of the past 10 months has been a record for global surface temperatures, a US agency says." Photo: Planetary Visions Ltd.
New Hope for U.S. Coastlines Even As Seas Rise. Climate Central takes a look at which shorelines may fare best in the coming years; here's an excerpt: "
Scientists
have encouraging news for planners along the Eastern seaboard staring
down the worsening crisis of sea level rise: if managed well, most of
the region’s shorelines could adapt naturally to the drenching changes
that lie ahead. The research, published in
the journal Nature Climate Change, offers hope that vulnerable coastal
areas could remain above water during the decades ahead, even if some of
those areas may change beyond recognition..."
Photo credit above: "
A shoreline at Plum Island, a barrier island in Massachusetts." Credit: Wesley Fryer/Flickr.
How Do You Decide To Have a Baby When Climate Change is Remaking Life on Earth? The Nation has a poignant story; here's a clip: "... In a 2009 report,
statisticians at Oregon State University determined that giving birth
to one more American “adds about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to
the carbon legacy of an average female.” Factoring in grandchildren and
great-grandchildren, it multiplies her “lifetime emissions” by a factor
of nearly six. The OSU study is one of many recent attempts to quantify
the environmental impact of parenthood. But it didn’t make sense, I
thought, to filter the world’s most pressing environmental dilemma
through the private choices of an individual woman. That analysis left
out significant pieces of the puzzle. The average woman couldn’t, by
herself, wrench billions of barrels of oil and tons of coal out of North
American soil and sell them overseas, or stonewall policies that might
have steered the US economy away from fossil fuels years ago..." (
Illustration by Karl-Raphael Blanchard).
Winter Precipitation: More Rain, Less Snow.
Climate Central takes a look a larger trends - here's an excerpt: "...
Even
in a warming world, snow will fall. However, the amount of snow and
when it falls will likely change as greenhouse gases build up in the
atmosphere. We examined cold season precipitation at stations across the
country, specifically looking at how much snow is falling compared to
rain. Our analysis is consistent with earlier EPA findings.
The Northwest and the Upper Midwest are the climate regions seeing the
largest decreases in precipitation falling as snow over the past 66
years..."
Leading Climate Scientists: "We Have a Global Emergency", Must Slash CO2 ASAP. All
those predictions James Hansen made back in the 80s have come true; if
anything he was conservative, so it might be reckless to ignore his
latest findings - and predictions. Here's an excerpt from
ThinkProgress: "...
The
study is significant not just because it is peer-reviewed, but because
the collective knowledge about climate science in general and glaciology
in particular among the co-authors is quite impressive. Besides sea
level rise, rapid glacial ice melt has many potentially disastrous
consequences, including a slowdown and eventual shutdown of the key
North Atlantic Ocean circulation and, relatedly, an increase in
super-extreme weather. Indeed, that slowdown appears to have begun, and,
equally worrisome, it appears to be supercharging both precipitation,
storm surge, and superstorms along the U.S. East Coast (like Sandy and
Jonas), as explained here..." (Map credit: Climate Central).
James Hansen's Apocalyptic Sea Level Study Lands to Mixed Reviews.
Climate Home has the update.
The Arctic Is Thawing Much Faster Than Expected, Scientists Warn. Chris Mooney reports at
The Washington Post: "
Amid blowout warm temperatures in the Arctic this year, two new studies
have amplified concerns about one of the wild cards of a warming planet
— how quickly warming Arctic soils could become major contributors of
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, causing still greater warming. In a major international study published
last week in Nature Geoscience, a team of researchers from regions
ranging from Alaska to Russia report that permafrost is thawing faster
than expected — even in some of the very coldest areas..." (Map credit:
Climate Reanalyzer).
When Will The World Really Be 2 Degrees Hotter Than It Used To Be? Meteorologist Eric Holthaus has the story at
FiveThirtyEight; here's an excerpt: "
Climate
data is a fussy thing, with a bunch of different organizations
measuring data against a bunch of different baselines. But all of them
agree on one thing: Last month, the Earth endured a heat wave that has
had no equal in the hundred-plus years humans have been keeping close
track of our home planet’s climate. Take data
from NASA, which showed that February was (by far) the most unusually
warm month since it began keeping records: 1.35 degrees Celsius above
the 1951-80 global temperature average and, depending on how you do the math, as much as 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels..."
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