63 F. high temperature Monday at St. Cloud.
69 F. average high on May 16.
72 F. high at KSTC on May 16, 2015.
May 17, 1915: Old man winter's last hurrah dumps 5 inches of snow along the western shore of Lake Superior.
One of the Best Weather Weeks of 2016?"I'm
not an economist and we all know economists were created to make
weather forecasters look good" quipped Rupert Murdoch. Add stock brokers
and the pointy-headed political pundits who failed to forecast the meteoric rise of
Bernie and The Donald.
Predicting the future is not for the faint of heart. Frankly, I prefer to tell people what already happened. Much safer.
TV
meteorologists pointing to their magical green-screens may be at a rare
(and welcome) loss for words this week; arguably one of the best of
2016. An atmospheric holding pattern will park a contented bubble of
high pressure above the Midwest, forcing big storms south of Minnesota,
keeping us sunny and balmy into next weekend.
Last week was the definition of cool, wet and foul. This week will be a rush of atmospheric euphoria. Expect 70s b
y Wednesday; we could see some low 80s in our zip code b
y Sunday an
d Monday. Have an extra comp day? Take i
t on Friday. I'll write you a note.
Models hint at a stickier, stormier pattern returning next week.
But forget next week. Put the weather-blinders on. Try to enjoy the here and now!
Reverse Lake Effect.
The afternoon visible cloud loop was interesting yesterday, showing
plumes of cloud-free air downwind of Minnesota's larger lakes (including
Mille Lacs, Leech and Superior). Much cooler lake water inhibits
convective, afternoon instability cumulus formation for as many as 20-40
miles down range. I thought it was vaguely interesting, then again I'm a
weather geek. Loop: WeatherTap.
A Flawless Week.
I know, the meteorologist is not supposed to pontificate or
editorialize. Just predict the weather, Paul. We don't care if it makes
you happy. But it does. With sunshine in the forecast into Sunday and
warming temperatures even the grouchiest of Minnesotans may crack a
smile in the coming days. ECMWF guidance: WeatherBell.
Evolving Into a More Summerlike Pattern.
GFS-predicted 500 mb winds looking out about 2 weeks show the core of
the jet lifting into northern Canada as summerlike heat levels push
across the Plains. No more frost or flurries in sight until further
notice.
Climate Pendulum is Swinging Rapidly from El Nino to La Nina. Andrew Freedman reports at
Mashable; here's the intro: "
Say goodbye to El Niño, and hello to its less popular sibling, La Niña. Tropical
Pacific Ocean waters are cooling rapidly after record warmth during
much of 2015 and 2016 so far, signaling an impending shift. A new climate outlook released on Thursday puts the odds of a La Niña
event developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean at 75 percent by the
September through November period of this year. Forecasters' confidence
in a developing La Niña event is high enough that the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued a "La Niña watch..."
Map credit: "
Sea surface temperature anomalies on May 12, 2016." Image: NOAA.
An Oklahoma Tornado Rewrites the Rule Book. Here's the intro to an interesting post by Bob Henson at
Weather Underground: "
Overshadowed
by the mighty EF4 and EF3 tornadoes that tore across south-central
Oklahoma last Monday, May 9, another less damaging twister--from the
same thunderstorm--has left seasoned scientists both astonished and
fascinated. This tornado, which struck near Roff, OK, was rated an
unexceptional EF1 on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Damage Scale. However, the Roff tornado stands out in several other ways. It was an anticyclonic tornado,
meaning that it rotated clockwise rather than counterclockwise. A few
such twisters probably occur each year, but they account for only
perhaps 1% of all U.S. tornadoes—and that’s a very rough estimate,
according to tornado climatology expert Harold Brooks (NOAA National
Severe Storms Laboratory)..."
Image credit above: "
Doppler
radar image of the supercell thunderstorm that contained a large EF3
cyclonic tornado (the Sulphur tornado) and a weaker EF1 anticyclonic
tornado (the Roff tornado). The reflectivity image (top, with reds
indicating heavy precipitation) shows the classic hook echo in
connection with the EF3 tornado (labeled in the velocity image at
bottom). The anticyclonic tornado (labeled in the bottom image) is
firmly embedded in the heavy rain core along the storm’s forward flank,
as shown in the top image. Image credit: Courtesy Roger Edwards and his Weather or Not blog."
Weather Prediction Technology Improves, But Communication is "More Complicated".
Meaning the potential for mixed messages and potentially dangerous
advice from non-trusted sources has increased with a proliferation of
social media. The democratization of media has a dark underbelly, as
reported by
KGOU in Oklahoma: "...
On
one hand, it’s good that we have so many different ways to get
information to people,” Smith said. “On the other hand, there are so
many different sources of information that people have, and there are
all sorts of things that happen to information when it’s floating around
out in the weather cloud.” Messages change as they are passed from one
person to the next, either through Twitter or simple conversation. Smith
said uncertainty terms like “possible,” “maybe” and “potential” are
lost, and the message morphs into a warning about a “definite” tornado
or severe weather outbreak. With social media, it’s like a game of
telephone..."
Storm Chasing Research Helps Predict Southern Tornadoes.
Could the composition of the ground make a material difference in
tornadogenesis in the southeastern USA vs. traditional "Tornado Alley"?
Here's an excerpt of an interesting post from Dan Bickford at
wspa.com: "...
While
the basics of tornado formation are the same in the Southeast as in any
other part of the country, Dr. Kevin Knupp of the University of
Alabama-Huntsville believes the key to better predictions of which
storms may produce tornadoes lies with the land we live on. “Our surface
is much different in the Southeast. We have rougher terrain…trees,
hills. So that surface roughness plays a role we think…and we’re trying
to understand that better.” That’s because these objects can act as
obstacles for wind, or serve to push surface winds in different
directions while also changing the wind speed..."
After Fort McMurray, Where Are The World's Most Fire-Prone Cities? Here's a clip from an article at
The Guardian: "...
There’s
no definitive list of the world’s most fire-prone cities, mostly
because of the many and often compounding factors that can increase the
likelihood of fires. As well as the growing vulnerability caused by climate change
and poor urban management, other factors range from the prevalence of
dry vegetation and use of flammable building materials to widespread
open-flame cooking and, all too frequently, arson.
But there is one relatively straightforward indicator of fire risk that
can be tracked and mapped. It’s what researchers and foresters call the
wildland-urban interface: areas where naturally fire-prone wilderness
areas such as forests and shrublands are close to, or even intermingled
with, housing developments, neighbourhoods or even – as in the case of
Fort McMurray – entire cities..."
Photo credit: "
A mobile phone image of the wildfire raging through the Canadian city of Fort McMurray on 3 May." Photograph: Twitter.com/Jerome Garot/EPA.
DNR Questions $2 Billion Fargo Flood Project.
The Star Tribune reports: "
The
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources is taking a hard look at a $2
billion federal project that would protect Fargo from floods by
diverting the water onto Minnesota lands instead. The DNR has compiled a
568-page study of the proposed Fargo-Moorhead Diversion and the effect
it would have on Minnesota’s water quality, environment and people. The
state has “significant concerns” about the project, DNR Commissioner Tom
Landwehr said Monday..."
Graphic credit: Red River Diversion Project, Mark Boswell.
Lloyd's of London Urges U.S. Government To Stop Insuring Floods.
Financial Times ran an article that made me do a double-take; here's an excerpt: "
Lloyd’s of London
insurers have called on the US government to stop providing cover for
flood damage, arguing that state support has become unsustainable and
encourages irresponsible housebuilding. The national flood insurance programme
has 5.2m policyholders, takes in about $3.4bn in premiums a year and
covers $1.3tn worth of assets. But it has racked up debt of $23bn,
mainly because of the costs from disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and
Superstorm Sandy..." (File photo: NOAA).
Mission Impossible? New England's Snowstorm "Bomb" From Inside a Doppler-On-Wheels. Here's an excerpt of an interesting series from NSF, the
National Science Foundation: "
Jan. 26, 2015.
The day computer models forecast one of the most intense snowstorms in
history. Meteorologists call it a "bomb." The bomb would hit coastal New
England that afternoon. And night. And the next morning. Eventually it
blitzed the region with more than 3 feet of snow. Blizzard warnings were
issued from New Jersey to Maine. Cities in the path of the storm ground
to a halt. In the first driving snows, a Doppler-on-Wheels (DOW) mobile
radar--a truck with a swiveling radar dish mounted on its back like a
huge eye--made its way through Massachusetts..."
Photo credit: "
DOW scientists Karen Kosiba and Traeger Meyer brave winds gusting more than 50 miles per hour." Credit: Josh Wurman, Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research
Fracking's Air Pollution Puts Infants and Children at Risk of Developing Heart, Lung Problems.
Truthout has the article; here's the intro: "
A newly published peer-reviewed study concludes
that air pollution from fracking puts people's lungs, hearts, and
immune systems at risk -- and that the health risks are particularly
pointed for young children and infants. The study -- the first to
specifically focus on how shale oil and gas drilling affects children
ability to breathe -- concludes that starting in the womb, children's
developing respiratory systems are particularly at risk from five
airborne pollutants associated with fracking and drilling..."
Renewables Are Leaving Natural Gas in the Dust This Year. Here's a snippet from
ThinkProgress: "
In
the first three months of 2016, the U.S. grid added 18 megawatts of new
natural gas generating capacity. It added a whopping 1,291 megawatts
(MW) of new renewables. The renewables were primarily wind (707 MW) and
solar (522 MW). We also added some biomass (33 MW) and hydropower (29
MW). The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” reports that no new capacity of coal, oil, or nuclear power were added in the first quarter of the year..."
Debunking 4 Myths About the Clean Energy Transition. Here's the intro to a story (and series) from
Clean Technica: "
America’s electric system is at a stark inflection point: coal power plants are operating at all-time lows with growing retirements, natural gas prices are at historical lows while power generation is rising, electricity sales are flattening, extreme weather events are forcing more resilient infrastructure, and plunging renewable energy prices have made low- or zero-carbon sources cost-competitive
with conventional fuel sources. Rapidly reducing greenhouse gas
emissions from the electricity sector is now possible without radically
disrupting grid operations, costs, or reliability. But the grid will
require a more substantial transformation as we rely on higher shares of
variable renewable generation. Some critics argue technological,
financial, and institutional barriers will prevent significant
decarbonization in the electricity sector, or will drive up the costs at
the very least. But four common clean energy myths are easily debunked
by facts and experience that show a low-carbon energy future is possible
without sacrificing affordable, reliable service..."
One Building Is Saving $1 Million a Year on Energy. What Would Happen If The Whole World Was More Efficient. Details via
ThinkProgress: "...
And
if you’re willing to go further than light bulbs, there is more hidden
inefficiency to target. A retrofit at Pittsburgh’s U.S. Steel building
resulted in $1 million worth of energy savings each year for the
commercial building, according to Danfoss, another company that joined
the EP100 initiative this week. That company installed new pumps for the
64-story building’s water supply and new fans in its air circulation
system. In a case study, the building manager says that driving down
energy costs has also made the building more attractive to tenants — a
positive economic side effect. Buildings account for 40 percent of the
electricity used in the United States, so making them more efficient
will go a long way towards reducing the country’s overall demand..."
Photo credit: AP Photo/Keith Srakocic. "The U.S. Steel Building in Pittsburgh saves more than a million dollars a year after retrofitting for better efficiency."
Rich People Have Access to High-Speed Internet; Many Poor People Still Don't. Here's an excerpt from a story at the
Center for Public Integrity: "...
An
investigation by the Center for Public Integrity found that even though
Internet access has improved in recent years, families in poor areas
are almost five times more likely not to have access to high-speed
broadband than the most affluent American households. That means no
access to online jobs, and no access to health care advice, education,
government services and banking — everything needed to be a full
participant in today’s society. This harsh reality has led to a new kind
of segregation. “Internet access,” says James Lane, superintendent of
Goochland County Public Schools, “is the civil rights issue of our time...”
Postponing the Olympics is the Safe Course of Action.
Safety of athletes and spectators should obviously come first, but when
there's this much money on the line? I wouldn't hold my breath. Here's a
snippet of an Op-Ed at
The New York Times: "...
Many
emergency care facilities are operating on reduced schedules and lack
basic supplies because of the withholding of resources to save money for
the demands of the Olympics. This is happening during a severe outbreak of dengue fever in Rio de Janeiro, which remains one of the epicenters of the Zika virus with 26,000 suspected cases. The governor of Rio de Janeiro State announced a state of emergency
for the public health sector in December, indicating that Rio´s health
system is inadequate for the daily needs of the population, much less
the extra stresses on the public health system that the Olympics would
bring..."
Anthony Bourdain On The One Type of Food You Should Never Eat. Amen brother. Here's a clip from
TIME: "...
But
there are a few things the No Reservations and Parts Unknown host will
never eat again, including Icelandic fermented shark, Namibian warthog
rectum —and airplane food. In a conversation with Bon Appetit,
Bourdain claimed that he never eats the food on the many, many plane
rides he takes as he travels the world. “Never,” said Bourdain. “No one
has ever felt better after eating plane food. I think people only eat it
because they’re bored. I don’t eat on planes. I like to arrive hungry...”
TODAY: Sunny, spectacular. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 65
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear and cool. Low: 46
WEDNESDAY: Postcard-perfect. Outdoor lunch? Winds: SW 3-8. High: 70
THURSDAY: Blue sky, a bit milder. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 50. High: 73
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, no complaints. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 52. High: 74
SATURDAY: Perfect day for the lake or pool. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 55. High: 76
SUNDAY: Sunny, breezy, more humid. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 59. High: 81
MONDAY: Sticky sun, T-storms at night. Winds: S 10-20+ Wake-up: 60. High: 82
Climate Stories...
Global Warming Worsens With Record Temps, Widespread Coral Bleaching. Hey,
what's on TV tonight? Better yet let me call up my Facebook feed and
distract myself beyond recognition. Here's a clip from
USA TODAY: "...
In
the planet's Northern Hemisphere, where most of the world's population
lives and burns fossil fuels, a benchmark reading from the Mauna Loa
volcano in Hawaii reached a monthly average of 407.42 parts per million
in April. In the slightly cleaner Southern Hemisphere, readings from an
Australian measuring station surpassed 400 parts per million last week,
according to Australian scientists. The rate of 400 parts per million is
significant because the planet hasn't seen that much carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere for millions of years. "This is the new normal. This
isn't going away," said Pieter Tans, chief greenhouse gas scientist for
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration..."
Graphic credit: "
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As of May 16, 2016.
Global Warming Won't Just Change the Weather - It Could Trigger Massive Earthquakes and Volcanoes. I HOPE this is alarmist hype, but just in case - here's a clip from
Quartz: "...
By
his estimation, carbon dioxide emissions from human activity since
industrialization began have changed the trajectory of earth’s climate
for the next 100,000 years. We are already experiencing the mayhem and destruction
that these changes can wreak, and, in the long term, things are only
going to get worse. On the face of it, the hypothesis that a few
degrees’ rise in the average temperature of the atmosphere can cause the
earth’s tectonic plates to move sounds ludicrous. Yet, McGuire,
professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College
London, shows through careful analysis of historical records that the
relationship between the weather and the “solid” earth is
incontrovertible..."
Photo credit above: "The raging earth." (Reuters/Cristobal Saavedra/Kyoto).
Ice Caps Melt, Prehistoric Virus Escapes. No, It's Not a Movie. We don't know what we don't know. Here's an excerpt from
Huffington Post: "
A couple of months ago I talked about the connection between global warming and the Zika virus.
Today I would like to discuss another interesting side effect we might
observe in the next decades thanks to global warming. The ice caps will
melt. Big deal, we already knew that. But have you ever thought of the
stuff trapped in that ice that’s going to thaw? What if some of that
stuff isn’t really dead, just dormant, waiting to come back? Sounds like
fiction, but it’s not..."
Photo credit:
University of Washington.
Asthma Hospitalizations in Maryland Could Rise With Climate Change. Can we extrapolate these projections to Minnesota and Wisconsin? Here's an excerpt from
The Baltimore Sun: "...
The
researchers obtained a database of 12 years' worth of Maryland
hospitalization records and looked for links between severe weather and
hospitalizations. They found that an extremely hot day in the summer was
linked to a 23 percent higher risk of hospitalization for asthma while
an extremely rainy day was linked to an 11 percent higher risk. With
rising temperatures and extreme weather becoming more common, the impact
on public health could be significant, the researchers said. Using the
researchers' data, the state Department of Health and Mental Hygiene
projects that hospitalization rates for asthma in Baltimore will more
than double by 2040..."
Photo credit: "
Food supplements for Asthma." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAad9rc2xCk)
Before She Denied Climate Change, Sarah Palin Acknowledged and Confronted It. Alaska Dispatch has the Op-Ed; here's an excerpt: "...
Before
she went down the tea party rabbit hole in 2008, into the fantasy world
of climate change denial devoid of fact, science, or reason, Palin
actually believed the science of climate change and the necessary
governmental response. As governor in 2007, Palin issued Administrative
Order No. 238 establishing the Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet, which
she tasked with developing and implementing an Alaska climate change
strategy. This is some of what she stated in that order: “Scientific
evidence shows many areas of Alaska are experiencing a warming trend.
Many experts predict that Alaska, along with our northern latitude
neighbors, will continue to warm at a faster pace than any other state,
and the warming will continue for decades. Climate change is not just an
environmental issue. It is also a social, cultural, and economic issue
important to all Alaskans..."
Photo credit: "
Palin's
about-face on climate change reflects her plunge down the rabbit hole.
Pictured: Palin speaks during a campaign event for Republican
presidential hopeful Donald Trump at the Hansen Agriculture Student
Learning Center in Ames, Iowa, Jan. 19, 2016." ERIC THAYER.
Trump Turns to Global Warming Denier for Energy Policy Guidance. Here's an excerpt from a story at
Christian Science Monitor: "...
The
presumptive Republican presidential nominee is seeking to build out his
policy proposals as he pivots from campaigning for his party's
nomination to a likely general election matchup with Democratic rival
Hillary Clinton. Among those he has asked for help is US Representative
Kevin Cramer (R) of North Dakota, one of the country's most ardent oil
and gas drilling advocates and climate change skeptics. North Dakota has
been at the forefront of the U.S. shale oil and gas boom..."
Photo credit: "
U.S.
Representative Kevin Cramer (R-ND) talks at the public launch of the
U.S. Agriculture Coalition for Cuba while at the National Press Club in
Washington, January 8, 2015.
" REUTERS/Larry Downing/File photo.
Seven In A Row: April is the Hottest April on Record - a 7,000 Year Record? Details via
HotWhopper: "...
This is the seventh month in a row
of "hottest months", all of which had an anomaly more than one degree
Celsius above the 1951-1980 mean. This breaks the previous record of six
in a row, set last month. This hasn't happened before in the record
since at least the 1950s. Earlier times probably aren't sufficiently
accurate on a month by month basis to say. I didn't check back that far
and, in any case, pre-1950s temperatures would probably have been hotter
at some time in the last couple of millenia. What that means is that it's probably more than 7,000 years since there was a similar run of hottest months on record. That is, not since the Holocene climatic optimum (and it's probably hotter now than it was back then)..."
Graphic credit: "
Global mean surface temperature for El Nino years". Data source:
GISS NASA.
Earth Just Recorded Its Warmest April on Record, And It Wasn't Even Close. More perspective from Andrew Freedman at
Mashable: "...
The
record all but assures that 2016 will set another milestone for the
warmest calendar year in NASA's database, regardless of whether the rest
of this year sees comparatively cooler global temperatures. During each
of the past seven months, global average surface temperatures have
exceeded the 20th century average by more than 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8
degrees Fahrenheit. Until October, that 1-degree threshold had not been
crossed since NASA's global temperature records began in 1880..." (Image: NASA GISS).
NASA: April 2016 Was The Seventh Consecutive Warmest Month on Record for Earth. Here's a clip from a post by Dr. Jeff Masters at
Weather Underground: "
Every
month from October 2015-April 2016 has now had a departure of 1 degree
Celsius or greater above the 1951-1980 average used by NASA. The
departure from average in a single month had never exceeded 1 degree
Celsius prior to October dating back to 1880. April 2016 also continues a
string of 369 consecutive months at or warmer than average. The last
colder-than-average month in NASA's database was July 1985..."
A Song of Fire and No Ice: We Just Had Our Fourth Record-Breaking Hottest Month in a Row. Here's an excerpt from
ThinkProgress: "...
How
big a jump was April 2016 compared to the historical record? In an
email, Stefan Rahmstorf, Head of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, notes that “The margin by which
April beats the previous record April is three times larger (0.24 °C)
than the margin of any previous record April (biggest was 0.08 °C).”
Also, this has easily been the hottest January-April on record, which
isn’t a surprise given that last month’s record was hot on the heels of
the hottest March on record by far, which followed the hottest February
on record by far, and hottest January on record by far..."
Graphic credit: "Global mean temperature anomaly (vs 1951-1980 mean), month of April only." CREDIT: NASA.
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