Thundery Lumps in our Tropical Holiday Stew

Early Morning Severe Storms on Thursday in SE Minnesota
A fairly significant line of strong to severe storms rolled across southern Minnesota Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Heavy rain and loud thunder clipped the southern metro, but there were a few severe storm reports in south-central Minnesota.

Storm Reports
Some of the severe storm reports from PM Wednesday to AM Thursday shows that 1.25" diameter hail fell in Courtland as well as thunderstorm wind damage in Blue Earth and Ellendale.

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Tornado on Wednesday?
Going back to Wednesday. An isolated storm developed in the afternoon near Villard, MN and was actually responsible for spawning a tornado. There were reports of: BOATS FLIPPED ... SHED DAMAGED AND SHINGLES OFF ROOFS NEAR AMELIA LAKE.

Radar From Tornadic Storm Wednesday Afternoon
This is what the radar looked like as the storm passed over the Lake Amelia area. Note the radar on the left shows a fairly small "hook" near Villard and Amelia Lake, while the screen on the right shows the inbound/outbound winds and a fairly tight couplet (red and green close together). This would indicate tight rotation within the storm.

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Thundery Lumps in our Tropical Holiday Stew
By Paul Douglas

After listening to people complain about the cold for the better part of 5 months I'm in no mood to complain about a little warmth and humidity. Make my sauna medium-rare, please.

I'm trying to keep a sense of perspective. We're not tracking the tornadoes that have carved up Kansas and Oklahoma in recent days. We're not stuck on a barrier island off the Carolina coast, wondering if a clump of thunderstorms over the Bahamas will strengthen into Tropical Storm Bonnie by Sunday. Minnesota's weather won't be as awe-inspiring as last weekend, but it can always be worse.

Studying the models I still think Sunday and Monday will be the best outdoor-days of the holiday weekend, with enough hazy sun for 80 degrees. Showers and T-storms will be heaviest and most widespread today and Saturday as a weak, slow-moving trough of low pressure pushes across the Plains. No all-day washouts, but you would be well-advised to have a Plan B later Friday and Saturday.

No heatwaves brewing, in fact a a push of cool Canadian air may keep us in the 60s by late next week. Free A/C courtesy of Manitoba.

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Extended Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds with a showers and storms late. Low: 64. Winds: WSW 5.

FRIDAY: More T-storms with locally heavy rain. High: 80. Wind: S 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Showers and storms. Low: 63. Winds: SSE 5.

SATURDAY: Wettest day, numerous T-storms. High: 76. Wind: S 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Lake worth. Drier with more sun, another T-storm. Wake-up: 63. High: 81. Wind: W 10-15 mph.

MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY: Peeks of sun. Late day thunder risk. Wake-up: 64. High: 83. Wind: E 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Shocker: more t-storms. Sticky. Wake-up: 65. High: 78. Winds: SE 8-13mph.

WEDNESDAY: More T-storms, some strong? Wake-up: 63. High: 77. Winds: SE 10-20mph
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, cooler and less wind. Wake-up: 58. High: 70. Winds: W 10-15mph.
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This Day in Weather History
May 27th

1930: The Great Empire Builder Tornado occurs. A direct hit derails a famous train in Norman County.

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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 27th

Average High: 73F (Record: 95F set in 1969)
Average Low: 52F (Record: 34F set in 1907)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 27th

Sunrise: 5:33am
Sunset: 8:47pm

*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~1min & 40secs
*Daylight Gain Since Winter Solstice: ~6hours & 30mins

*Length of Day: ~15hours & 16mins
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Moon Phase for May 27th at Midnight
1.2 Days Before Last Quarter

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Extended Forecast

Good news warm weather fans! Warmish weather looks to continue throughout much of the rest of May with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. These warm temps will also be accompanied by muggier dewpoints, so by Minnesota standards, this might be a little too warm... Note the slightly larger cool down as we head into the early part of June with highs dipping into the 70s.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

While we are getting indications of a slight cool down into the early part of June, NOAA's CPC 6 to 10 day temperature outlook is still suggesting a fairly decent chance of warmer than average temps across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region from May 31 to June 4.

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Friday Weather Outlook

Warmer than average temperatures continue on Friday with highs in the 70s across the state. Temps will be running about 5 degrees above average or so with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, which means that it will feel like another summer day. Note that the first day of Meteorological Summer doesn't start until June 1st, while the first day of astronomical summer doesn't start until June 20th.

Friday Weather Outlook

Friday appears to be another unsettled day across the Upper Midwest with spotty showers and storms rolling through the state. There doesn't appear to be as much sunshine as there was on Thursday either. However, even with cloudier skies and rain chances, it'll feel lukewarm and muggy.

Friday Weather Outlook

As our next impulse of energy rolls into the region with scattered showers and storm, winds will be on the increase. Note that winds on Friday will be out of the east as the low approaches from the southwest.  Overall wind speeds don't look like a big issue, but there could be a few gusts that approaches 15mph across parts of the state at times.

Simulated Radar

The simulate radar below from AM Thursday to 7pm Saturday shows mostly quiet weather conditions from earlier Thursday to a more unsettled outlook PM Thursday into Friday and Saturday. Keep in mind that there doesn't appear to be any widespread severe storms, but there could be a few isolated strong ones with heavy rainfall chances.

Precipitation Potential

The rainfall potential shows a fairly good soaking across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin through 7pm Sunday. This will come by of numerous swarms of showers and storms from PM Thursday to Saturday

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National Weather Outlook

As another impulse of energy rolls northeast through the middle part of the country through PM Saturday, widespread showers and storms will produce strong to severe storms and areas of heavy rainfall. While the best chance of severe weather with this particular storm system was on Thursday, there will still be a decent chance of strong to severe storms on Friday and Saturday in the Central U.S... There will also be areas of potential flooding that develop with this system too.

Severe Threat Friday

...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON
   FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
   CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM CENTRAL
   NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT NEWD
   FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON FRI INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY SAT
   MORNING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB TO
   A CNTRL KS LOW AND WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN TX. AN
   EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
   CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS. 

Severe Threat Saturday

...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY.

Rainfall Potential

Widespread showers and storms will continue across the central part of the country over the next several days with chance of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. Take a look at NOAA's WPC 5 day rainfall forecast through AM Tuesday. Note the widespread 2" to 4"+ from parts of the Upper Midwest to the Coastal Bend of Texas. Areas of flooding can't be ruled out as heavy rainfall from convective storms continue into the weekend.

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Invest 91L

Take a look at the blob of clouds seen on the IR satellite loop below. While it may not look like much at first, this batch of clouds has a pretty good chance of tropical development within the next couple/few days. Interestingly, this mass is moving slowly NW toward the Lower 48 and could impact parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states over the Memorial Weekend Holiday.

 

Tropical Development?

Interestingly, this particular area of low pressure has caught the attention of the National Hurricane Center. They are deeming this particular system as having a high chance of tropical development within the next 5 days! Note that the system seems to be tracking NW toward Georgia and South Carolina. Stay tuned...

1. Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas has become somewhat better 
organized since yesterday, and the circulation of the low has become 
a little better defined.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
be generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form 
on Friday or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast.  All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Friday afternoon.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this disturbance will be issued by 8 AM EDT Friday morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Kimberlain

 

Coastal Storm This Weekend

The extended forecast shows that particular area of low pressure snuggling up to the Coast of South Carolina by 7pm Saturday. This would potentially bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds and heavy surf along the coast just in time for the upcoming Memorial Weekend Holiday.

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Space weather is a hidden risk to Arctic cruises, and it could be a significant one

Here's an interesting story from the WashingtonPost regarding Space Weather and how it could impact Arctic cruises.

“Space weather” refers to huge eruptions of radiation and plasma from the surface of the sun. The eruptions can cause geomagnetic storms here on Earth that spark brilliant auroras near the poles, but they can affect or even bring down the electrical grid, radio communications, GPS and other satellite services. The storms can last days to weeks, depending on its strength. And to make matters even more precarious, space weather forecasting is about as mature in 2016 as weather forecasting was in 1930. So as the Serenity journeys through the Arctic on a route that no other cruise ship has yet succeeded in sailing, a strong geomagnetic storm could bring down its GPS and communication with the rest of the world. High wind, heavy seas and, most menacingly, sea ice could necessitate a rescue, and communications and positioning are necessities in bringing emergency responders."

Read more HERE:

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