August 13, 1964: Minnesota receives a taste of fall, with lows of 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell.
A Bronze Saturday, but Sunday Gets a Gold Medal
I'm still waiting for a call back from NBC. My idea is simple but revolutionary. For every Olympic event pick someone at random, sitting up in the stands, to compete. Because we need perspective to appreciate how amazing these super-athletes really are.
The ratings would double. Think "Rio Olympics" meets "America's Got Talent" meets "Biggest Loser". I'll keep waiting by the phone.
We react to weather, not climate. It's in our DNA to respond to daily swings in temperature & moisture, but long-term trends can be just as interesting. Even though weekend temperatures cool back down to "normal" the summer of '16 is running warmer than the 30-year average. Based on cooling degree days since June 1 we've spent 26 percent more than average cooling our homes this summer. And that doesn't factor dew point or heat index.
The cold pool aloft responsible for Friday's showers is pushing east; a stray instability shower can't be ruled out this afternoon. Expect warm sunshine with highs near 80F Sunday, a chance for your yard to dry out after waves of tropical downpours.
More June than August.
America's Latest 500-Year Rainstorm is Underway Right Now in Louisiana. Meteorologist Eric Holthaus provides perspective at Pacific Standard; here's an excerpt: "...An instant analysis from Climate Nexus refers to today’s Louisiana rainstorm as a “classic signal of climate change.” It’s right. The NWS maintains a statistical database used to calculate the “annual exceedance probability” of a given rainfall event — basically, the expected frequency this event would occur in any given year. Today’s rainstorm in Louisiana is at least the eighth 500-year rainfall event across America in little more than a year, including similarly extreme downpours in Oklahoma last May, central Texas (twice: last May and last October), South Carolina last October, northern Louisiana this March, West Virginia in June, and Maryland last month..."
The Times Picayune in New Orleans has live-blogging on the ongoing flooding disaster across Louisiana and Mississippi at NOLA.com.
- Flash Flood Emergencies have been issued this morning across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi after 8-12”+ of rain has fallen in the past 24 hours.
- An additional 4-9” of rain are possible over the next couple days across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and southwest Texas, including New Orleans, Beaumont and Alexandria.
- Heavy rains will also be possible today in the Milwaukee and Chicago areas and through the weekend from Oklahoma into Ohio. Flooding will be possible in both of these regions.
Forecast Rain Through Sunday:
Mobile, AL: 2-4”
New Orleans, LA: 3-6”
Baton Rouge, LA: 5-8”
Lafayette, LA: 5-8”
Beaumont, TX: 3-5”
Shreveport, LA: 2-4”
Alexandria, LA: 3-6”
Summary. Water rescues have occurred over parts of Louisiana and Mississippi this morning as 6-12”+ of rain has fallen across parts of the region over the past 24 hours. More heavy rain is possible across the region into the weekend, with another 4-9”+ possible from New Orleans to Alexandria and Beaumont. Meanwhile, heavy rain will also be possible today across parts the upper Midwest, including the Chicago and Milwaukee areas, and into the weekend from Oklahoma to Ohio. Facilities across these areas that normally experience problems during flash flood scenarios should be on alert for issues over the next few days.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, AerisWeather
NOAA Maintains La Nina Forecast for Fall or Winter. The observed cooling of Pacific ocean water has been tame, the forecast of official La Nina conditions pushed back, according to Reuters: "A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday reduced its outlook that La Nina conditions would develop in next few months but said it still expected the weather phenomenon to occur this fall or winter. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said in its monthly forecast that La Nina was "slightly favored" to develop through October. That was a small change from July, when it stated the conditions were "favored" to occur. The agency maintained its forecast of a 55 percent to 60 percent chance that La Nina would develop during the fall and winter of 2016/17..."
* More details from NOAA CPC here.
Surveyed Scientists Debunk Chemtrails Conspiracy Theory. Here's the intro to a story at UCI News: "The world’s leading atmospheric scientists overwhelmingly deny the existence of a secret, elite-driven plot to release harmful chemicals into the air from high-flying aircraft, according to the first peer-reviewed journal paper to address the “chemtrails” conspiracy theory. Researchers from the University of California, Irvine, the Carnegie Institution for Science and the nonprofit Near Zero organization asked 77 atmospheric chemists and geochemists if they had come across evidence of such a large-scale spraying program, and 76 responded that they had not. The survey results were published Wednesday in Environmental Research Letters. Heat from aircraft engines produces condensation trails that can be clearly seen from the ground. A small but vocal segment of the population firmly believes that these are composed not merely of condensed water vapor but of chemicals and elements such as strontium, barium and aluminum that powerful, high-level entities have been intentionally and covertly releasing into the atmosphere for decades..."
Photo credit: "A commercial airliner produces a condensation trail in the skies over California." Mick West
Photo credit: " " Credit Sanford Myers for General Motors
The Brave New World of Robots and Lost Jobs. Here's the debate we should be having. Be less worried about bad trade deals with China - and more worried about AI and intelligent robots doing your job within 5-10 years. The Washington Post reports: "...The “automation bomb” could destroy 45 percent of the work activities currently performed in the United States, representing about $2 trillion in annual wages, according to a study last year by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. We’ve seen only the beginning of this change, they warned. Currently, only 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated, but 60 percent of occupations could soon see machines doing 30 percent or more of the work. The McKinsey analysts sharpened their argument in a paper released last month. Their estimates, based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data covering more than 800 occupations, draw a shocking picture of the future...."
TODAY: AM sunshine, PM clouds, passing shower or T-shower. Winds: NW 8-13. High: near 80
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing skies, risk of a meteor shower. Low: 62
SUNDAY: More sun, a dry, comfortable sky. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 81
MONDAY: Warm sunshine, looking good. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 84
TUESDAY: Unsettled, few T-storms may pop. Wake-up: 68. High: 83
WEDNESDAY: Sunnier, drier, warmer. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 67. High: 86
THURSDAY: Sticky sun, heating up. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 69. High: near 90
FRIDAY: Few T-storms likely as a cooler front approaches. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 72. High: 85
Growing Corn Like It's 2065 To Study Climate Change Effects. The Star Tribune reports: "At the University of Minnesota, researchers are growing corn in greenhouses like it’s the year 2065. The effort is part of a long-term plan to study how corn will grow under weather conditions considerably different from today’s, predicted in climate change models for a half-century out. “Many models show that with increasing temperatures we could be seeing a reduction in corn yields, so that’s something we would like to investigate under controlled conditions,” said Tim Griffis, University of Minnesota professor of biometeorology and one of several researchers directing projects..."
As Earth Swelters, Global Warming Target In Danger of Being Missed. Here's the intro to an update at Reuters: "The Earth is so hot this year that a limit for global warming agreed by world leaders at a climate summit in Paris just a few months ago is in danger of being breached. In December, almost 200 nations agreed a radical shift away from fossil fuels with a goal of limiting a rise in average global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times while "pursuing efforts" for 1.5C (2.7F). But 2016 is on track to be the hottest year on record, also buoyed by a natural El Nino event warming the Pacific, according to the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization. The first six months were a sweltering 1.3C above pre-industrial times..." (File photo: AP).
Photo credit: "Iraqis jump off the ruins of an old building into the Tigris River to beat the heat in Baghdad this month. The temperature in Baghdad reached 47 degrees." Photo: AP.
Photo credit: "Vize island weather station on the edge." (Pic: WWF Russia).
Photo credit: "Jellyfish-like animals known as “by-the-wind sailors” blanket an Oregon beach near an old shipwreck. Some of the same unusual wind patterns and currents that recently warmed the Pacific pushed these floating creatures by the millions onto beaches from Southern California to British Columbia." Photo by Tiffany Boothe, Seaside Aquarium.