81 F. average high on August 7.
83 F. high temperature on August 7, 2015.
August 8, 1930: A record high of 102 is set at Redwood Falls.
Increasingly Warm and Sticky, then Weekend Relief
What keeps me up at night? The statistical inevitability of an EF-4 tornado hitting the downtown core of a big city. A western fire growing out of control, igniting close-in suburbs. A large urban area running out of water. And "Hurricane Amnesia". It's been a decade since the U.S. was hit by a Category 3 storm or stronger. Hubris. Overconfidence.
"Technology will save us from a series of poor decisions". Right.
Track and intensity of a storm is obviously important. But SPEED can be an even better predictor of impacts, especially rain amounts. When systems stall, bad things result. That may be the case along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle this week, with some 10-20 inch rain amounts. No hurricane or tropical storm, just a stalled tropical low unleashing more biblical rains.
We heat up into midweek; 90F possible Wednesday before T-storms and a cool frontal wind shift drop high temperatures into the 70s next weekend with a slow clearing trend.
The worst of the heat wave stays to our south; stormy ripples on the northern edge of this sizzling air keeps us wetter than average.
Midweek Sauna. Models show a heat index well into the 90s by Wednesday and Thursday, when T-storms may break the heat. A significant cool-down is likely by the end of the week. Graphic: Aeris Enterprise.
Big Temperature Swings. After sweating it out Tuesday into Thursday temperatures cool off by the weekend as surface winds blow from the northwest again, another cool, Canadian kiss with highs in the 70s and lows dipping into the 50s. ECMWF forecast: WeatherBell.
Cool Nights by Friday. If you're heading north next weekend consider a light jacket or sweatshirt - nights will be cool and crisp with lows in the 50s, even a few 40s possible over the Minnesota Arrowhead.
* Stalled tropical disturbance expected to drop a hurricane's worth of rain on northern Florida and portions of the Gulf Coast this week.
* 10-15" rainfall totals can't be ruled out by next weekend, when rains will finally begin to wind down.
* I expect serious, even historic flooding of urban areas, rivers and streams later this week. Urban areas impacted will include Tampa, Ocala, Panama City, Pensacola, Mobile and metropolitan New Orleans. Facilities that experience flooding problems during tropical storms or hurricanes can anticipate problems this week.
We'll keep you posted - another update on Monday.
Paul Douglas, Senior Meteorologist, AerisWeather
11.65 inches at Brainerd
10.02 inches at Mora
13.44 inches at Garrison
11.14 inches at Longville
9.92 inches at Bruno
9.88 inches at Morris
9.12 inches at St James
How Soviet and American Hurricane Fliers Set Aside Cold War Politics for Science. Jack Williams has a fascinating story at Capital Weather Gang; here's a clip that made me do a double-take: "...Unknown to the United States before Gilbert, Russian airplanes had flown out of Cuba into Hurricane Emily in 1987, Hurricane Floyd and Tropical Storm Chris the month before Gilbert. After Gilbert in 1988, the Russians flew into Hurricanes Gabrielle and Hugo, Tropical Storm Iris and Hurricane Jerry in 1989. In 1990, they flew into Hurricane Klaus and Tropical Storm Marco. The Russians also flew into several Pacific Ocean typhoons out of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (commonly called North Vietnam in the United States) from 1984 until 1990. They didn’t risk conflicts with U.S. hurricane hunters; the United States had ended typhoon flights in 1987..."
Image credit: "
TODAY: Partly sunny, balmy. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 82
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and mild. Low: 70
TUESDAY: Hotter, stickier, stray T-storm possible. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 88
WEDNESDAY: Hot sun, still muggy. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 72. High: near 90
THURSDAY: Best chance of heavy T-storms all week. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 74. High: 84
FRIDAY: Blue sky, more comfortable breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 70. High: 82
SATURDAY: Morning sun, PM clouds, shower. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 76
SUNDAY: Sunnier, nicer day of the weekend. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 58. High: 78
Photo credit: "Marion Doss / Flickr
* The paper from AGU Publications is here.