55 F. average high on October 19.
73 F. high on October 19, 2015.
October 20, 2002: Heavy snow impacts central Minnesota. It fell in a 10-20 mile wide band from southeast North Dakota to around Grantsburg, Wisconsin. Little Falls picked up 9 inches.
October 20, 1916: Accumulating snow falls in south central Minnesota with 4.5 inches recorded in New Ulm, 4 inches in Farmington and Hutchinson, 3.5 inches in Montevideo, and 3 inches in Faribault.
October 20, 1835: 6 inches of snow falls at Ft. Snelling.
More Cool Fronts Than Cold Fronts Next 2 Weeks
Well, this is a terrible inconvenience. You're telling me I can't wear shorts while walking the dog today. Wait. I might even have to slip into a light jacket tomorrow morning? In late October. How unfair. I thought summer would linger indefinitely, that winter had been cancelled this year.
Yes, it's warming, but if it ever gets to the point where we don't see snow or cold fronts the planet will face much bigger challenges.
If you miss out on a (first) frost tomorrow morning chances are your yard will remain frost-free for the next 1-2 weeks. I'm tracking a few feeble puffs of Canadian air - but nothing I'd label a 'cold front'. Not yet.
Take advantage of a dry west-to-east "zonal" wind flow aloft with a dry sky into Tuesday morning of next week. Yes, we may even go 6 days in a row without measurable rain!
Southern moisture fuels a storm with heavy rain next Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact long-range models suggest mild and wet into at least the first week of November.
The Guess-Cast for Halloween? Drizzle or light rain and 50s. My crazy-clown costume may get soaked.
* Photo credit above: Paul Sundberg Photography.
Map credit: "The year-to-date heat has the world on track for its hottest year on record."
Animation credit: "NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center/Ryan Fitzgibbons, producer."
Photo credit: "This Nov. 5, 2015, photo shows a heavy earth mover building a sea wall on Majuro Atoll, Marshall. Rising seas in the Marshall Islands can be seen on many of the Atolls in the group as more coastline disappears and vegetation is washed away. The US military ignored warnings about rising seas to build a space radar costing nearly a billion dollars on a tiny atoll in the Marshall Islands. The Space Fence system is considered vital for keeping astronauts and satellites safe by tracking space junk as small as a baseball." (AP Photo/Rob Griffith)
Photo credit: Swinerton Renewable Energy. "Construction is complete on the North Star project, whichspans 1,000 acres in Chisago County. It's expected to start providing power to Xcel Energy in December."
The Shift to Renewables: How Far, How Fast? Forbes has a story that frames the challenge - and market opportunity: "Powering the United States or the world with 100% renewable energy is the stated goal of many individuals and organizations. What they are really talking about is 100% renewables to generate electricity, because it’s not feasible in the near-term to replace motor fuels with renewables. Views of how quickly this can be done are highly polarized – some predict less than two decades, while others see fossil fuels as the dominant source at least through 2050. The primary argument for renewable energy is to avoid anthropogenic, or human-caused, climate change by reducing CO2 emissions. Progress toward that goal has fallen well short of reductions believed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC) to be necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change..."
Scientists Accidentally Discover Efficient Process To Turn CO2 Into Ethanol. These are the kinds of breakthroughs that will allow us to start removing CO2 from the atmosphere in the years to come. Popular Mechanics reports: "Scientists at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee have discovered a chemical reaction to turn CO2 into ethanol, potentially creating a new technology to help avert climate change. Their findings were published in the journal ChemistrySelect. The researchers were attempting to find a series of chemical reactions that could turn CO2 into a useful fuel, when they realized the first step in their process managed to do it all by itself. The reaction turns CO2 into ethanol, which could in turn be used to power generators and vehicles..."
Photo credit upper left: "Greensburg, Kansas is the second city in the U.S. to convert to 100 percent renewable energy after it was devastated by a powerful tornado in 2007." Wikimedia Commons.
Photo credit upper right: "A hospital turbine in Greensburg, Kansas." The City of Greensburg.
Photo credit: "Kathy Reinhart's home in Lancaster, Calif., features three solar panels on the roof." Photo courtesy of Kathy Reinhart
TODAY: Partly sunny, brisk - actually feels like October. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 50
FRIDAY: Early frost outlying suburbs, then clouds increase. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 35. High: 56
SATURDAY: More clouds than sun, milder. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 44. High: 61
SUNDAY: A sunnier, nicer day, statewide. Milder than average. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 48. High: 64
MONDAY: Partly sunny, still pretty nice. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 41. High: 60
TUESDAY: Rain, few T-storms PM hours. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 49. High: 62
WEDNESDAY: Rain, potentially heavy at times. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 58
The Conservative Christian Case for Climate Change Action. My sincere thanks to Minnehaha Academy, which is hosting a book-launch event the evening of November 15.The first 500 people who RSVP will receive a complimentary copy of Caring for Creation. Details are here. Here's an excerpt of a Time Op-Ed written by "Caring for Creation" co-author, Methodist minister, former coal industry employee and EEN (Evangelical Environmental Network) President Mitch Hescox:"...Food and water scarcity are made worse across the developing world. Sea-level rise, increased asthma, and disease carrying insects across the U.S. are just a few of the other climate-related impacts. The good news is that overcoming climate change presents us with a tremendous opportunity to create a better world. In order to realize it, we must end the partisanship and dump the denial. The scientific debate about climate change is over. We might not know all the particulars about how quickly the oceans will rise, but the causation is clear. One only has to open a window to know that our environment has changed. We must honor our past, but we cannot live in it. Coal mining jobs continue to disappear. The blast furnaces of Pittsburgh and elsewhere won’t be rebuilt. We’re in the middle of an economic disruption..."
The West Is Burning, and Climate Change is Partly To Blame. Here's an excerpt of an analysis at FiveThirtyEight: "...With wildfire, such superlatives have, paradoxically, become normal. Records are routinely smashed — for acreage burned, homes destroyed, firefighter lives lost and money spent fighting back flames. A study published earlier this year found that, between 2003 and 2012, the average area burned each year in Western national forests was 1,271 percent greater than it was in the 1970s and early 1980s. Like the extreme hurricanes, heat waves and floods that have whipped, baked and soaked our landscape in recent years, such trends raise the question: Is this what climate change looks like? In the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science this month, two researchers took on the tricky task of apportioning blame..."
September An Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months - 2016 Will Be Warmest Year on Record. Here's a clip from a story at Climate Central: "...To say there’s never been a stretch like this may sound like stating the obvious, but let’s recap for the heck of it. The September mark comes a month after the world tied the record for the hottest month ever recorded in August (the month it tied was this July). As early as May, there was a 99 percent chance that 2016 was going to go down as the hottest year on record, besting 2015, which bested 2014, because the planet has been on a heat bender since last year. With September’s record, the odds crept a little higher still. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said on Twitter that 2016 “seems locked in” to set a record for hottest year with it likely to end somewhere around 2.25°F (1.25°C) above the late 19th century average..."
Graphic credit: "
The Past 2 Weeks Are a Perfect Illustration of What "Solving" Climate Change Will Look Like. A series of baby steps, which, in the aggregate, turn into something much bigger. Here's an excerpt from Dave Roberts at Vox: "Global warming can sometimes feel like this big, hopelessly intractable problem that no one’s doing much about. But the first two weeks of October have seen a genuinely impressive flurry of climate action — if you know where to look. Consider what’s gone down so far:
1) Canada got a carbon tax. On October 4, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his government would implement a nationwide carbon tax starting in 2018. The tax will start at $7.60 per ton of CO2 and rise to $38 per ton by 2022. Individual provinces can forgo the tax and adopt their own policies — so long as they slash emissions by an equivalent amount. While the US media focuses on Donald Trump, the Canadian press is delving into a wonky debate over carbon pricing..." (Photo credit: Shutterstock).