56 F. average high on October 18.
63 F. high on October 18, 2015.
October 19, 2000: The warmest October 19th in Minnesota history occurs for many towns. Many cities had highs in the 80s, with the Twin Cities hitting 84. Appleton in Swift County reported 90 degrees.
October 19, 1972: A cold snap moves through Minnesota, with lows of 1 above in Tower and 9 in St. Peter and Luverne.
October 19, 1916: Redwood Falls receives a record-setting 7 inches of snow.
"Paul, Why Does The 7-Day Outlook Change So Much?"
Talking about the weather (and the Vikings) has been a relief in recent weeks. CNN gives me heart palpitations, so let's just ponder the state of the atmosphere and call it a day.
Readers tend to get annoyed when the forecast changes, especially for weekend plans. I feel your pain, but here's the deal: most NOAA models update 4 times a day. There are 2 daily ECMWF (European) simulations.
New data "initializing" the models generates a new solution of how weather patterns should behave over time. Meteorologists look for continuity and consistency between models - and over time. We look for trends (wetter, drier, warmer, cooler) but it can be maddening, especially days 4-7 of the extended outlook.
It's like your fantasy football team. Predicting injuries and trades? Good luck. There are unknown unknowns, elements that just can't be predicted in advance with any accuracy.
Enjoy a relatively dry stretch of weather into next week as the biggest, wettest storms track south of Minnesota. 50s later this week give way to another mild blip of 60s early next week.
Soak up this extended warm season. On October 19, 1972 St. Peter woke up to a brisk 9F!
September An Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months - 2016 Will Be Warmest Year on Record. Here's a clip from a story at Climate Central: "...To say there’s never been a stretch like this may sound like stating the obvious, but let’s recap for the heck of it. The September mark comes a month after the world tied the record for the hottest month ever recorded in August (the month it tied was this July). As early as May, there was a 99 percent chance that 2016 was going to go down as the hottest year on record, besting 2015, which bested 2014, because the planet has been on a heat bender since last year. With September’s record, the odds crept a little higher still. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said on Twitter that 2016 “seems locked in” to set a record for hottest year with it likely to end somewhere around 2.25°F (1.25°C) above the late 19th century average..."
Animation credit: earth.nullschool.net
Photo credit: "This Nov. 5, 2015, photo shows a heavy earth mover building a sea wall on Majuro Atoll, Marshall. Rising seas in the Marshall Islands can be seen on many of the Atolls in the group as more coastline disappears and vegetation is washed away. The US military ignored warnings about rising seas to build a space radar costing nearly a billion dollars on a tiny atoll in the Marshall Islands. The Space Fence system is considered vital for keeping astronauts and satellites safe by tracking space junk as small as a baseball." (AP Photo/Rob Griffith)
Minnesota and Wisconsin At Greatest Risk of Solar Storm-Related Grid Failures? Well here's a big day-brightener. Due to a combination of factors, geomagnetic storms and magnetic material deep underground, Minnesota and Wisconsin may have the greatest potential for power outages related to solar activity, according to a story at Daily Mail Online: "Solar storms threaten Earth about every 100 years and experts warn we are overdue. Now, researchers have released the first ever map that shows which area of the US are at high risk of being hit by the next intense storm. The map was built using geomagnetic storm measurements and data from magnetic materials beneath the Earth - revealing Minnesota is particularly at risk of being blasted by solar material..."
Map credit: "Researchers created a map that shows what areas of the US are at high risk of intense solar storms. The red and black dots represent areas at the highest risk, green and yellow are the lowest and gray means there is not yet enough data to map a geoelectric hazard."
Gizmodo has more perspective here.
Photo credit: "Drawing water in Mauritania during a severe drought that hit East Africa in 2012."
Credit: Oxfam International/flickr
Photo credit: " Credit Tara Todras-Whitehill for The New York Times.
Wind Could Supply Fifth of World Electricity by 2030. Reuters has the story: "Wind power could supply as much as 20 percent of the world's total electricity by 2030 due to dramatic cost reductions and pledges to curb climate change, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) said in a report released in Beijing on Tuesday. If last year's Paris climate accord leads to a worldwide commitment to the decarbonization of the electricity sector, total wind power capacity could reach as much as 2,110 gigawatts (GW) by then, nearly five times its current level, the industry group said..."
Photo credit: "An electricity pylon is seen next to wind turbines at a wind power plant in Hami, Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, China, March 21, 2015." REUTERS/Stringer.
The Shift to Renewables: How Far, How Fast? Forbes has a story that frames the challenge - and market opportunity: "Powering the United States or the world with 100% renewable energy is the stated goal of many individuals and organizations. What they are really talking about is 100% renewables to generate electricity, because it’s not feasible in the near-term to replace motor fuels with renewables. Views of how quickly this can be done are highly polarized – some predict less than two decades, while others see fossil fuels as the dominant source at least through 2050. The primary argument for renewable energy is to avoid anthropogenic, or human-caused, climate change by reducing CO2 emissions. Progress toward that goal has fallen well short of reductions believed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC) to be necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change..."
Photo credit upper left: "Greensburg, Kansas is the second city in the U.S. to convert to 100 percent renewable energy after it was devastated by a powerful tornado in 2007." Wikimedia Commons.
Photo credit upper right: "A hospital turbine in Greensburg, Kansas." The City of Greensburg.
TODAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NW 5-10. High: near 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Low: 38
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Feels like October again. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 54
FRIDAY: Early frost outlying suburbs. Sun gets tangled up in cirrus clouds. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 37. High: 57
SATURDAY: Intervals of sun, not bad at all. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 40. High: near 60
SUNDAY: Good day to check out peak fall color. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 48. High: 61
MONDAY: Plenty of sun, few complaints. Wake-up: 47. High: 62
TUESDAY: Breezy, a taste of early September? Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 72
Graphic credit: "
The Past 2 Weeks Are a Perfect Illustration of What "Solving" Climate Change Will Look Like. A series of baby steps, which, in the aggregate, turn into something much bigger. Here's an excerpt from Dave Roberts at Vox: "Global warming can sometimes feel like this big, hopelessly intractable problem that no one’s doing much about. But the first two weeks of October have seen a genuinely impressive flurry of climate action — if you know where to look. Consider what’s gone down so far:
1) Canada got a carbon tax. On October 4, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his government would implement a nationwide carbon tax starting in 2018. The tax will start at $7.60 per ton of CO2 and rise to $38 per ton by 2022. Individual provinces can forgo the tax and adopt their own policies — so long as they slash emissions by an equivalent amount. While the US media focuses on Donald Trump, the Canadian press is delving into a wonky debate over carbon pricing..." (Photo credit: Shutterstock).
The Conservative Christian Case for Climate Change Action. My sincere thanks to Minnehaha Academy, which is hosting a book-launch event the evening of November 15.The first 500 people who RSVP will receive a complimentary copy of Caring for Creation. Details are here. Here's an excerpt of a Time Op-Ed written by "Caring for Creation" co-author, Methodist minister, former coal industry employee and EEN (Evangelical Environmental Network) President Mitch Hescox:"...Food and water scarcity are made worse across the developing world. Sea-level rise, increased asthma, and disease carrying insects across the U.S. are just a few of the other climate-related impacts. The good news is that overcoming climate change presents us with a tremendous opportunity to create a better world. In order to realize it, we must end the partisanship and dump the denial. The scientific debate about climate change is over. We might not know all the particulars about how quickly the oceans will rise, but the causation is clear. One only has to open a window to know that our environment has changed. We must honor our past, but we cannot live in it. Coal mining jobs continue to disappear. The blast furnaces of Pittsburgh and elsewhere won’t be rebuilt. We’re in the middle of an economic disruption..."
Conservatives Make Case for Market-Based Approach to Tackling Climate Change. AL.com has the story; here's a link and excerpt: "As a conservative-leaning independent, Peter Bryn believes the government should play a limited role in the lives of its citizens, only getting involved where absolutely necessary to safeguard the lives and rights of its citizens. As a former engineer for ExxonMobil and current conservative outreach director for the Citizens' Climate League, Bryn believes that reducing carbon pollution that leads to climate change is one of those areas. "I was with Exxon for about eight years, and I was concerned about how we manage climate change and provide energy to the world affordably at the same time," Bryn said..."
Graph credit: "This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution." (Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record, courtesy NASA.gov) (NASA).
Bill McKibbon: The Question I Get Asked The Most. Get involved - become part of a growing movement. The most important thing you can do? Vote for pro-science politicians. There's no place foro science denial. We're going to need all the technology and innovation we can find to engineer solutioons to climate volatility and weather disruption. Here's an excerpt from EcoWatch: "The questions come after talks, on twitter, in the days' incoming tide of email—sometimes even in old-fashioned letters that arrive in envelopes. The most common one by far is also the simplest: What can I do? I bet I've been asked it 10,000 times by now and—like a climate scientist predicting the temperature—I'm pretty sure I'm erring on the low side. It's the right question or almost: It implies an eagerness to act and action is what we need. But my answer to it has changed over the years, as the science of global warming has shifted. I find, in fact, that I'm now saying almost the opposite of what I said three decades ago..."