59 F. average high on October 12.
63 F. high on October 12, 2015.
.01" rain fell at KSTC yesterday.
October 13, 1917: Record low temperatures occur across central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from the low to mid teens to the upper teens and lower 20s. St. Cloud records the coldest temperature of 10 degrees, while Mora records a low of 13.
October 13, 1880: An early blizzard strikes parts of southwest and west central Minnesota. Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft in the Canby area would last until the following spring.
October 13, 1820: A snowstorm at Ft. Snelling dumps 11 inches.
RIP Mosquitoes: First Frost For Much of the Metro
The first frost of fall is coming roughly a week later than usual for much of the Twin Cities metro. The urban heat island (additional warmth radiating from homes, businesses and a sea of asphalt) may keep the immediate downtowns and close-in suburbs frost-free, but for the rest of us the growing season is pretty much over.
The glass is half-full, this is good news! Fewer mosquitoes, ragweed is toast - with fewer symptoms for allergy sufferers. Fewer ticks, less weeding, more raking. The joys of mid-October.
Like so many Minnesotans I miss the sun more than the warmth; the next couple of months get progressively cloudier; December the darkest month of the year here at home. The sun is visible much of today and Friday. Temperatures approach 70F Saturday with a fleeting shower, but no widespread rain until late Sunday and early Monday.
A damaging wind storm batters the Pacific Northwest this weekend but models whisk the biggest, wettest storms south of Minnesota into next week.
Colors are peaking now close to MSP. This may be THE weekend to check out flaming fall foliage!
Wild Wind Storm Brewing for Pacific Northwest. NOAA's 4km NAM model shows winds at 900mb close to hurricane force by this evening off the coast of Oregon and Washington; an intense, tightly-wound storm capable of significant wind damage as it pushes inland.
Category 4 Hurricane Nicole Heading Toward Bermuda Today. Significant wind and wave damage is possible across Bermuda as a very powerful Hurricane Nicole pushes north, passing almost directly over Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane Matthew Was Deceptively Powerful. Here's an excerpt from NexusMedia that got my attention: "...Even a mild-mannered Category 1 or 2 hurricane can prove catastrophic if it produces enough rain. Hurricane Matthew dumped 18 inches on parts of North Carolina — more rain than Louisiana and Mississippi saw during Hurricane Katrina. Floods in the Tar Heel State destroyed 7,000 homes. More than 2,000 people needed to be rescued. Time and again, we see that water — not wind — wreaks the greatest havoc during severe storms. Just ask New York. Hurricane Sandy registered as a Category 1 storm, but it proved the second-costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Hurricane Matthew followed a similar pattern, prompting weather experts to criticize the wind-based system of classification..." (Image credit: NOAA).
Twitter photo credit: Lorie Moore.
Horrific Rains and Ocean Surge: Hurricane Matthew By The Numbers. Here's a clip from The Washington Post Capital Weather Gang: "...In the United States, record-setting amounts of rain have inflicted the greatest amount of hardship, with the Tarheel state at ground zero. 15 inches of rain in eastern North Carolina has resulted in catastrophic inundation. Emergency officials have conducted 2,000 rescues of people stranded in high water in North Carolina alone. Nearly half of the state’s 100 counties were in a state of emergency, and 52 shelters housed more than 4,300 displaced people. Lumber River in North Carolina reached a record 24 feet above its usual level, while the Tar River at Rocky Mount crested seven feet above flood stage..."
How Did Hurricane Matthew Become So Threatening So Quickly? NOVA Next has more perspective: "...Warm water fuels hurricanes, and over the past week, water temperatures have been about 85° F in the Caribbean where Matthew first intensified. While that is a little above normal, the water off the Atlantic coast is even warmer when compared to the seasonal normal. Average ocean temperatures have risen over the last century, with parts of the Atlantic now 1-2°F warmer than a century ago. While warm water isn’t the only factor that determines how strong a hurricane can get, it is a key ingredient. There is the expectation that hurricanes and typhoons across the globe will last longer and produce more rain by the end of the century, according to the research compiled in the 2013 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report..."
Image credit: "This visible image from NOAA's GOES-East satellite shows the location of Hurricane Matthew on October 7 at 2:30 pm EDT."
New York Is Going To Get A Lot More Hurricanes Like Sandy. The incidence of major flooding in New York has tripled since 1800 - the trends are troubling. Here's a clip from a story at Pacific Standard: "...When Hurricane Sandy reached the Mid-Atlantic four years ago, it brought with it some of the most severe flooding the region has ever seen. It also took a financial toll, with damages totaling more than $71 billion—second only to Hurricane Katrina among damage in the United States. And here comes more bad news: Researchers report that New York City is likely to get hit by many more floods on par with Sandy in the future. “[T]he frequency of Hurricane Sandy-like extreme flood events has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century, due to the compound effects of sea level rise and storm climatology change,” Ning Lin, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Princeton University, and her colleagues write today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences..." (File image: Mike Groll, AP).
Photo credit: "A traffic jam in Beijing, China, during World Car-Free Day, Sept. 22, 2014."
Photo credit: "More than half of new wind capacity in 2015 was contracted through power purchase agreements, according to AWEA."
In Minnesota, Coal Still Has Its Defenders - Funded by North Dakota. Here's the intro to a story at Midwest Energy News: "While Minnesota utilities continue to turn away from coal, the industry still has its champions in the state – with one group funded largely by North Dakota taxpayers and coal companies. The Coalition For A Secure Energy Future, an offshoot of the Lignite Energy Council, has met with legislators and candidates around Minnesota to discuss why energy policies must feature coal as a future component of generation. The coalition has a three year, $3.6 million budget, which the blog Bluestem Prairie first disclosed earlier this year..." (File photo: Darla Hueske).
The Next Zika. 4 more potential reasons not to get out of bed today. Here's an excerpt from Scientific American: "Disease detectives are on the lookout for obscure viruses that can be spread among people by traveling insects, and quickly become a widespread problem. Scientific papers are filled with illnesses to watch. Four particular viruses now stand out to virologists and epidemiologists, although it is not certain any of the ailments will become the next Zika or West Nile virus. But researchers give several reasons to keep a close eye on this quartet..." (Image credit: Climate Nexus).
Temperature and Precipitation Trends. The Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service has a running tally of departure from normal for temperature and precipitation. As you can see (at a glance) rainfall has been running consistently above average since late July.
TODAY: Frosty start. Bright sunshine. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 55
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cool. Low: 40
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, milder breeze - a fine fall day. Winds: S 10-20. High: 67
SATURDAY: More clouds, passing shower. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 58. High: 69
SUNDAY: Peeks of sun, showers return at night. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 47. High: 64
MONDAY: Showers taper, still damp. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 53. High: 62
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, stray shower. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 48. High: 64
WEDNESDAY: Intervals of cool sunshine. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 44. High: 59
* Photo credit: Mike Hall.
Photo credit: "
Did Climate Change Turbocharge Hurricane Matthew? You could certainly make the case, especially for Haiti and Cuba. here's an excerpt from Climate Signals: "...Unusually warm seas also fueled Matthew's rapid intensification and sustained the hurricane which broke the record for maintaining Cat 4/5 strength in October. Matthew first spun up into a hurricane on September 29, surging from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in just 36 hours, a stunning development consistent with the observed trend toward rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones..." (October 5 file image: NOAA and AerisWeather).
Climate Studies: New York City Flood Risk Will Triple, Western Wildfires Have Doubled. Here's the intro to a summary at Christian Science Monitor: "Expect more natural disasters as climate change goes unchecked, say scientists. Already wildfires across the Western United States have doubled during the past three decades as a result of human-induced climate change, according to a study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. And that study coincides with another published in the same journal predicting more dramatic flooding with rising global temperatures..."
Photo credit: "In July and August, the Roaring Lion fire devoured more than 8,000 acres of forest, along with over 60 homes and outbuildings in eastern Montana's Bitterroot Range. Here, the fire burns through dense conifers, July 31, 2016." Courtesy of Mike Daniels/Columbia University