56 F. average high for KSTC on October 17.
56 F. high temperature on October 17, 2015.
October 18,1950: Record high temperatures are set across the area as highs reached the mid to upper 80s. Minneapolis and Farmington saw highs of 87 degrees Fahrenheit, while Albert Lea reached 86 degrees.
October 18, 1916: A blizzard impacts Minnesota. A sharp temperature drop begins as well; Hallock drops from the 60s to 2 above by the 20th.
Aug-tober 18 - Our Slow Summer Simmer Continues
NASA reports last month was the warmest September on record, worldwide. Stop me if you've heard this before. That makes 12 straight months of "warmest on record". I'm sure it's all a coincidence.
Yesterday, while I was tracking a severe thunderstorm risk in the Twin Cities, meteorologists in the southern Plains saw the mercury approach 100 degrees. On the 17th day of October. With a sun angle identical to February 25.
At some point summer will fade, frost will form on the tip of your nose and "snow", a delightful, frozen form of water, will white-wash your yard. At the rate we're going that may happen in late November.
A west breeze dries us out today with enough sun for low 60s. Highs hold in the 50s from Thursday into much of next week; the best chance of fleeting (rain) showers Wednesday night, again Friday. ECMWF (European) guidance hints at heavier, steadier rain by the middle of next week. NOAA's GFS model predicts low 50s for Halloween.
Not a blizzard in sight.
Wait, there are still boats in the water. In mid-October. In Minnesota. Disturbingly awesome.
3 pm Monday surface temperatures courtesy of Oklahoma Mesonet.
Minnesota and Wisconsin At Greatest Risk of Solar Storm-Related Grid Failures? Well here's a big day-brightener. Due to a combination of factors, geomagnetic storms and magnetic material deep underground, Minnesota and Wisconsin may have the greatest potential for power outages related to solar activity, according to a story at Daily Mail Online: "Solar storms threaten Earth about every 100 years and experts warn we are overdue. Now, researchers have released the first ever map that shows which area of the US are at high risk of being hit by the next intense storm. The map was built using geomagnetic storm measurements and data from magnetic materials beneath the Earth - revealing Minnesota is particularly at risk of being blasted by solar material..."
Map credit: "Researchers created a map that shows what areas of the US are at high risk of intense solar storms. The red and black dots represent areas at the highest risk, green and yellow are the lowest and gray means there is not yet enough data to map a geoelectric hazard."
Animation credit: "The two images in this animation show the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The first image shows a spear of abnormally warm water along the equator on Oct. 12, 2015 indicative of El Niño conditions. The second image, from exactly one year later, shows the dramatic cooling of a possible La Niña." (Source: earth.nullschool.net).
Image credit: Capital Weather Gang, which has more astonishing, heartbreaking imagery from the thousand-year flood that hit North Carolina.
Map credit: "The 20 world cities with the highest number of people at risk from flooding, accounting for future climate and socioeconomic change." Source: OECD
How The Western Water Wars May End. The Christian Science Monitor reports: "...The pressure to solve decades-old disputes is rising. Water is already one of the West’s most contentious issues, with an infinite number of colliding interests – urban residents, farmers, environmentalists, native Americans, agribusiness owners, hydroelectric operators – all dipping their hoses into receding rivers and reservoirs. The only thing they all seem to have in common is their impulse to hire a lawyer. Now, amid growing urbanization and the effects of climate change, the tensions are becoming even more fraught. Yet the Yakima accord has given some people optimism that there’s a way out of this Gordian knot. They hope the example here – the deal as well as the years of squabbling and millions of dollars spent in courtrooms – will convince other regions to broker similar accords rather than perpetuate the debilitating era of water wars..." (Image: NOAA).
WSJ: How do you see climate change affecting food production and what you’re doing at Cargill?
MR. MACLENNAN: Climate change is here, and it’s going to change how and where food is grown. Today, the U.S. corn belt is in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana. In 50 years, it may be in Hudson Bay, Canada. What does that mean for supply-chain companies and food production, and trying to get in front of it? How farmers grow the food, where they grow it, the need for analytical tools to help them respond to periods of great weather or horrible weather—that’s where Cargill can play a role..."
How Agriculture Can Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Here's another excerpt from a timely Wall Street Journal story: "...While changing eating habits is notoriously difficult, there are other steps we can take to reduce agriculture emissions. For example, by changing farming practices through different crop management approaches, improved fertilizer management, conservation tillage, and better management of grazing lands. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released a set of 10 building blocks, from soil health to nutrient management, to reduce agriculture emissions. Existing technologies and best practices could reduce agriculture emissions by around 20% to 40%, a team of researchers recently found. But more transformative technologies and practices will be needed to reduce emissions further to achieve the ambitious long-term reduction goals agreed upon in Paris..."
File photo credit: " " Photo: iStock Photo.
Photo credit: "
TODAY: Clearing and pleasant. Winds: W 8-13. High: 63
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low: 47
WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, shower at night. Winds: NW 7-12. High: near 60
THURSDAY: Damp start, mostly cloudy and cool. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 42. High: 51
FRIDAY: Unsettled, few PM showers. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 38. High: 53
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Not bad. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 39. High: 58
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 46. High: near 60
MONDAY: Peeks of sun, still pretty quiet. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 45. High: 58
The Conservative Christian Case for Climate Change Action. Here's an excerpt of a Time Op-Ed written by "Caring for Creation" co-author, Methodist minister, former coal industry employee and EEN President Mitch Hescox: "...Food and water scarcity are made worse across the developing world. Sea-level rise, increased asthma, and disease carrying insects across the U.S. are just a few of the other climate-related impacts. The good news is that overcoming climate change presents us with a tremendous opportunity to create a better world. In order to realize it, we must end the partisanship and dump the denial. The scientific debate about climate change is over. We might not know all the particulars about how quickly the oceans will rise, but the causation is clear. One only has to open a window to know that our environment has changed. We must honor our past, but we cannot live in it. Coal mining jobs continue to disappear. The blast furnaces of Pittsburgh and elsewhere won’t be rebuilt. We’re in the middle of an economic disruption..."
Conservatives Make Case for Market-Based Approach to Tackling Climate Change. AL.com has the story; here's a link and excerpt: "As a conservative-leaning independent, Peter Bryn believes the government should play a limited role in the lives of its citizens, only getting involved where absolutely necessary to safeguard the lives and rights of its citizens. As a former engineer for ExxonMobil and current conservative outreach director for the Citizens' Climate League, Bryn believes that reducing carbon pollution that leads to climate change is one of those areas. "I was with Exxon for about eight years, and I was concerned about how we manage climate change and provide energy to the world affordably at the same time," Bryn said..."
Graph credit: "This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution." (Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record, courtesy NASA.gov) (NASA).
Bill McKibbon: The Question I Get Asked The Most. Get involved - become part of a growing movement. The most important thing you can do? Vote for pro-science politicians. There's no place foro science denial. We're going to need all the technology and innovation we can find to engineer solutioons to climate volatility and weather disruption. Here's an excerpt from EcoWatch: "The questions come after talks, on twitter, in the days' incoming tide of email—sometimes even in old-fashioned letters that arrive in envelopes. The most common one by far is also the simplest: What can I do? I bet I've been asked it 10,000 times by now and—like a climate scientist predicting the temperature—I'm pretty sure I'm erring on the low side. It's the right question or almost: It implies an eagerness to act and action is what we need. But my answer to it has changed over the years, as the science of global warming has shifted. I find, in fact, that I'm now saying almost the opposite of what I said three decades ago..."
Another Month, Another Record. NASA has September details here.
Climate Change Will Change How We Grow Food. Here's a clip from National Geographic: "...All farmers will be affected by global changes, but the FAO says the impact on women will be the most dramatic. Female farmers account for 43 percent of agricultural workers in developing countries, yet they face substantial disadvantages compared to men, including disproportionally high demands on their time to run a home, paltry access to agricultural tools and methods, and limitations in the credit markets that allow others to remain nimble in the face of environmental changes. Women worldwide tended to invest less money in things that might make their farms more productive...."
Map credit: "2016 data showing countries most vulnerable to food insecurity due to climate change."
MAP BY FAO.
MAP BY FAO.
The Kigali Deal on HFCs Is Important, But Won't Save Us Another Half Degree. More perspective from Climate Interactive.
Nations, Fighting Powerful Refrigerant That Warms Planet, Reach Landmark Deal. It is a big deal, and more evidence that things can get done. Here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "Negotiators from more than 170 countries on Saturday reached a legally binding accord to counter climate change by cutting the worldwide use of a powerful planet-warming chemical used in air-conditioners and refrigerators. The talks in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, did not draw the same spotlight as the climate change accord forged in Paris last year. But the outcome could have an equal or even greater impact on efforts to slow the heating of the planet. President Obama called the deal “an ambitious and far-reaching solution to this looming crisis...”
How the Chemical Industry Joined the Fight Against Climate Change. Good for Honeywell and Dupont. The New York Times has more perspective and context.
Historic Shrinking of Antarctic Ice Sheet Linked to CO2 Spike. Climate Nexus reports: "Twenty-three million years ago, the Antarctic Ice Sheet began to shrink, going from an expanse larger than today’s to one about half its modern size. Computer models suggested a spike in carbon dioxide levels as the cause, but the evidence was elusive — until now. Ancient fossilized leaves retrieved from a lake bed in New Zealand now show for the first time that carbon dioxide levels increased dramatically over a relatively short period of time as the ice sheet began to deteriorate. The findings, appearing in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters, raise new questions about the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet today as atmospheric CO2 concentrations rise to levels never before experienced by humans..." (Image: Pexels).