42 F. average high on November 10.
60 F. high on November 10, 2015.
November 11, 1940: The Great Armistice Day Blizzard kills 49 people in Minnesota. Food dropped by Pilot Max Conrad saved stranded hunters. The barometer fell to 28.66 inches at Duluth. Some roads were so badly blocked with snow they weren't opened until Nov. 22.
Revolutionary GOES-R Satellite Launches Soon
It's true that the European (ECMWF) model often performs better than NOAA's weather simulations, but there's no question America is blessed with the best weather service in the world today.
122 forecast offices, 13 river forecast centers, 160 high-resolution Doppler radars providing nearly continuous coverage from coast to coast - and 5,000 employees keeping us safe.
On November 16 GOES-R launches, the first of 4 state-of-the-art weather satellites positioned 22,300 miles above the equator. Imagery can be captured every 30 seconds, an onboard lightning tracker will help meteorologists pinpoint life-threatening weather.
To predict weather we need an accurate global snapshot of what's happening right now. 95 percent of all data that goes into weather models comes from satellites. GOES-R (soon to be GOES-16) should be a big step forward.
Our November weather honeymoon continues with a shot at 60F over the weekend. Models hint at a soaking rain a week from today, maybe ending as the first flurries of fall.
Amazing but true: MSP still hasn't seen it's first official frost.
Photo credit above: Lockheed Martin. More details on GOES-R from The San Francisco Chronicle.
GOES-R Mission. Here's a good explainer of what the next generation of U.S. weather satellites will be able to achieve, courtesy of NOAA NESDIS: "The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) is NOAA’s next generation of geostationary weather satellites. The first satellite in the series, GOES-R, is scheduled for launch on November 16, 2016 at approximately 4:42pm Eastern. Once the satellite reaches geostationary orbit, it will be known as GOES-16. There will be four satellites in the series: GOES-R, GOES-S, GOES-T and GOES-U. GOES-R will provide continuous imagery and atmospheric measurements of Earth’s Western Hemisphere, total lightning data, and space weather monitoring to provide critical atmospheric, hydrologic, oceanic, climatic, solar and space data..."
First (official) Frost Saturday Morning? Many suburbs have already seen the first frost of fall, but not MSP International, the close-in suburbs and downtowns, where the urban heat island has prolonged the frost-free season. Models show a wide spread for temperatures Saturday morning (meaning lower confidence) but it's possible the mercury will drop to 32F early Saturday at MSP International Airport.
Honeymoon Lingers One More Week. ECMWF (European) data shows highs mostly in the 50s into late next week, followed by a potentially major shift in the pattern. Graphic: WeatherBell.
Pattern Flip In 7-8 Days? GFS guidance shows the other shoe dropping a week from Saturday, with nearly 40-45F temperature tumble behind a major storm late next week. Yes, we are long overdue for a real cold front. Temperature trends: Aeris Enterprise.
Colder, But Not Nanook. The forecast for Thanksgiving Day at 500mb continues to suggest a west-to-east zonal flow, hinting at average or slightly colder than average temperatures for the northern tier of the USA, with toasty warmth for much of the southern USA. No prolonged bitter invasions are brewing just yet.
- Drought: The total area of drought increased from 19.4 percent to 26.8 percent of the Lower 48, mainly from expansion in the South and Southeast.
- Hurricane Matthew, a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph, made landfall in South Carolina on October 8, causing widespread flooding in the region.
- New Mexico experienced record warmth in October, with an average temperature increase of 5.8 degrees.
- Alaska had its driest October on record.
- Pacific Northwest: Idaho, Montana and Washington each had their wettest October on record, while Oregon experienced its second wettest..."
Image credit: "Annual average vehicle crash statistics." Data from U.S. DOT.
Animation credit: "The amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere over the northern Pacific is seen in this animation created using data from microwave observations by polar orbiting satellites. The animation covers the period between Nov. 5th and 7th, 2016." (Source: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies.)
Photo credit: "
Solar Power Proponents Hopeful Trump Sees Benefit of Growing Industry. Here's an excerpt from the Los Angeles Times: "...As part of his larger economic agenda, Trump has proposed lifting environmental regulations, tapping coal and nuclear power, and opening federal lands to oil and natural gas production. But despite his campaign rhetoric, experts and industry players say, Trump’s energy policies as president will bump into market realities. The challenge Trump faces is that increasingly the economics in the energy sector favor renewable technologies such as solar and wind, which are reducing costs quickly. Increased fracking has produced natural gas at prices that are cheaper than coal. And a worldwide oil glut has reduced petroleum profits to the point where reducing regulation and opening federal lands to drilling is unlikely to bring a drilling boom..."
Photo credit: "A large-scale solar panel project sits atop warehouses No. 9 and 10 at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, which have been converted into retail space for shops and a microbrewery." (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)
Sunny Disposition: Falling Prices Fuel Solar Boom. With costs dropping rapidly why wouldn't you want to take advantage of the free energy falling on your yard? Here's an excerpt from Milwaukee's Journal-Sentinel:
- A new forecast by the U.S. Energy Department says the amount of solar energy produced nationwide is poised to triple between 2014 and 2019.
- Nationally, solar installations jumped 45% in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2015.
- Cutting-edge technology could give solar power an even bigger "wow" factor. Elon Musk, known for developing electric-powered Tesla cars and pushing for commercial space travel, sees the potential for solar-powered roof tiles, such as those made by his company SolarCity, that resemble conventional shingles.
Photo credit: Apple.
Image credit: LA Johnson/NPR.
TODAY: Sunny, chilly breeze. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 49
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear and cold. Low: 33
SATURDAY: Early frost? Sunny, breezy, milder PM. Winds: S 10-15. High: 58
SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, weather honeymoon continues. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 43. High: near 60
MONDAY: Blue sky, a bit cooler. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 54
TUESDAY: Clouds, showers likely. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 41. High: 55
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, still quiet for mid-November. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 39. High: 53
THURSDAY: Clouds and wind increase, still mild. Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 44. High: near 60
In this free evening conversation, you’ll learn:
- Why Christians should lead the charge for caring for God’s creation.
- How climate change goes beyond politics and affects the health, economy, and stability of future generations.
- Tips to help your family and those around you care for the earth..."
Map credit: "Results of studies on attribution of extreme events to anthropogenic climate change." (Sources: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and various other publications)
The Arctic: A Bellwether of Climate Change. Maryland's Point News has a story that made me do a double-take; here's a clip: "...The Arctic is a bellwether of climate change,” explained Dr. Walsh. He said that scientists can use observations from the Arctic to identify trends and indicate the future of climate change for the rest of the world. “What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic,” a playful phrase that Dr. Walsh coined to describe the importance of studying this region, was substantiated by data correlating temperature changes in the Arctic to rising sea levels, feedback to greenhouse warming, and extreme weather around the midlatitude regions on the globe. However, Dr. Walsh explained, the cause for concern is not based solely on the global impact, but on the impact local to the Arctic as well. According to Walsh, 50% of all ice in the Arctic has melted in the past thirty years due to rising temperatures..."
File photo: Huffington Post.