Sunday, August 13, 2017

Rain Lingers Into Monday - Highs In The 70s & 80s This Week

A Look Ahead Toward The Last Full Week Of August

Looking for some above average weather? Well, according to the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, some warmer than average weather might be coming to at least the northern parts of the state as we head towards the beginning of the state fair, with temperatures likely to be around average across other parts of Minnesota. (Yellow/orange: Warmer than average expected, blue: colder than average expected)

The Climate Prediction Center is also expecting wetter than average weather across a good portion of the state as we head through the last full week of the month (August 20-26). Also, there is a note of good news in this forecast as the potential of wetter than average weather would not only would affect areas of Minnesota that currently are under drought conditions, but areas of the Dakotas and even into Montana that are under exceptional drought. (Yellow/orange: Drier than average expected, green: wetter than average expected)
Sunday Highs (Through 5 PM)

Sunday Rainfall (Through 5 PM)

The Fine Art of Naming Hurricanes
By Paul Douglas

Contrary to urban legend, Tropical Storm Don, an unremarkable tropical system that quickly fizzed in the Caribbean last month, was not named after our president.Every decade or so meteorologists at the WMO, the World Meteorological Agency, meet in Geneva to pick names for upcoming years. The names they use are Anglo, Hispanic and French, reflecting all cultures & languages in hurricane alley.

Especially deadly and devastating hurricanes have their names "retired". There will never be another Hurricane Camille, Hugo, Katrina or Sandy. Why name them at all? Easier to remember and track, especially when multiple storms flare up, simultaneously.
Showers taper off today with a ration of sunlight Tuesday - before the next round of T-storms drops another 1-2 inches by midweek. Models bring warmer, stickier air back into Minnesota by late week - the weekend should bring muggy 80s, with a few spotty T-storms, but no all-day washouts expected.
Tropical Storm Gert stays out to sea, but "Harvey" may threaten the Bahamas and Florida within a week. I expect a busy hurricane season.
Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Showers taper, damp. High 72. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind N 3-8 mph.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, T-storms arrive late. High 80. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Heavy showers and T-storms. High 77. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
THURSDAY: More clouds than sun, drying out. High 74. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Plenty of warm sunshine on tap. High 80. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 3-8 mph.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny, sticky. Lake-worthy. High 83. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Muggy with some sun. Storms north. High 86. Low 69. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
This Day in Weather History
August 14th

1978: The Boundary Waters area is hit by a strong tornado. Some of the damage could still be seen 10 years later.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
August 14th
Average High: 81F (Record: 96F set in 1978)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 43F set in 1964)
Average Precipitation: 0.15" (Record: 1.00" set in 1981)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 14th
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 6 minutes and 24 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 45 seconds

*Next Sunrise At/After 6 PM: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 8 PM: August 26th (8:00 PM)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
Rain will be possible once again over southern Minnesota Monday, but it will slowly be tapering off west to east throughout the day. Highs where rain is expected will be in the low to mid 70s. The warmest weather across the state will be across northern Minnesota, where mainly sunny skies are expected and highs will reach into the upper 70s in spots.
Even with temperatures only in the low to mid 70s in central Minnesota, they will still be a good 5 or so degrees warmer than they were Sunday.
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will warm to around 80 for the rest of the week once we get past Monday, which would be within a few degrees of average. Models split toward the middle of next week - will we see some 90s, or stay closer to 80? I'm not sure I buy the warmer side just yet, but only time will tell.
Precipitation-wise, we could potentially see two inches or more of rain through the end of the week, with the heaviest falling Tuesday Night into Wednesday. We are about an inch and a third (through Saturday) below average for the summer here in the Twin Cities, so any rain will help.
National Weather Outlook
Monday's Weather
A stalled front from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic will bring the potential of showers and storms across the region once again Monday. Meanwhile, a slow moving low pressure center will continue to bring rain to parts of the upper Midwest.
Due to rounds of storms expected near that stalled frontal boundary across the southern U.S., rainfall totals could top 2" in spots through Friday morning. A few rounds of storms this week in the upper Midwest will also bring them the potential of over 2" of rain.
More rain will be possible across the North Central U.S. through early in the week, with the potential of 1"+ for areas like the Twin Cities and Sioux Falls. The heaviest rain, however, looks to fall east of where the greatest drought is across the region.
Rainfall totals will be lighter through the beginning of the week in the Southern Plains, however with that stalled frontal boundary in place we could see totals that top 1-2" in isolated spots.
Due to that stalling frontal boundary, parts of the Carolinas could pick up 1-2" of rain through the beginning of the week. Any tropical system threat looks to stay offshore at the moment (more on that below).
Tropical Depression Eight formed Saturday Night in the Atlantic, becoming Tropical Storm Gert during the afternoon hours Sunday. This was a satellite view of the system Sunday afternoon, swirling northeast of the Bahamas.
The good news is that this tropical system will avoid the United States, going north then curving off to the northeast before weakening. The system should avoid Bermuda as well.
Cool Weather In The Central U.S. So Far This Month
It's been a cool month so far across the central U.S. and into the Mid-Atlantic. In some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, average temperatures have been a good 7 to 10 degrees below average. Meanwhile, parts of the Northwest has scorched with temperatures that approached all-time record territory earlier this month. That has helped average temperatures reach 10-16 degrees above average so far this month.
Drought Is Harming The Potato Crop In Maine
Drought has recently been expanding in the state of Maine, and that is harming the potato crop. More from the Bangor Daily News: "August is a critical month for the growth of potatoes. With harvest occurring in September, at this time the potato fields already have blossomed and the tubers start to grow from petite new potatoes into full sized ones — if there’s enough rain, that is.  With abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions affecting the state over the last month, especially in northern Maine, the Maine Potato Board said the size of this year’s yield will likely be down from previous years." (Image: Julia Bayly | BDN - Dirt is kicked up on a road that runs through potato fields near the Fort Kent-Frenchville town line.)
Wildfires And Hobby Drones Don't Mix
This should be a no-brainer, but please don't fly your drones into wildfires. It's not a good thing for those fighting the fire. More from Popular Science: "Even as the Forest Service uses drones both to help prevent fires, by starting prescribed burns and on occasion to help battle flames, drones are emerging as a new fire threat. People fly them into fires to get pictures that they wouldn’t otherwise be able to capture. The problem is, however, that capturing those images puts firefighters at even greater risk. And, if a drone hinders the firefighting process, that can cost valuable time."
Watching The Eclipse From Space
Even if you aren't traveling to watch the total eclipse next Monday, NASA will have a livestream that includes images from weather balloons. More from Science Friday: "Millions of people are making plans, from Oregon to South Carolina, to view the solar eclipse in path of totality, where you’ll be able see the moon completely cover the sun. But for those who can’t make it out, the NASA Eclipse Ballooning Project has got you covered. The team of scientists and students are using weather balloons to livestream and capture images of the event from the edge of space. Physicist Angela Des Jardins, leader of the NASA Eclipse Ballooning Project, and computer science student Levi Willmeth, who is part of the Oregon State University and Linn-Benton Community College Eclipse Ballooning Team, discuss the engineering behind the balloons and what data they hope to collect from the project." (Image: Montana State University Eclipse Ballooning Project team members Garrett Hilton, left, Katherine Lee, Berk Knighton and Micaela Moreni prepare to launch a high-altitude balloon during a test flight Wednesday, June 22, 2017 near Rexburg, Idaho. Credit: Kelly Gorham/Montana State University)
Flooding Occurring More Often In Miami - But It Isn't Just Climate Change
Flooding is becoming more common in Miami, but it doesn't appear it is completely linked to climate change. It's appears that the El Nino/La Nina cycle and the North Atlantic Oscillation factor in as well. More from Gizmodo: "In Miami, it’s no secret that sunny day flooding is occurring more often, nor that rising sea levels and climate change are to blame. But, as is often the case when you drill down into the inner workings of our planet, the full story is a bit more complicated."
U.S. Won't Help Pay For The IPCC
The U.S. has helped paid for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the past - considered some of the best climate science on the earth. Under the Trump administration, that won't happen. More from WIRED: "The most formal manifestation of the scientific consensus on climate change is an organization called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Headquartered in Geneva, under the aegis of the United Nations, it coordinates the volunteer efforts of several thousand scientists, industry experts, nonprofit researchers, and government representatives into reports issued every five to seven years. These reports underpin virtually every climate-based decision on Earth, from the US military’s threat assessments to the Paris climate agreement itself.  So it’s maybe surprising that the IPCC is a shoestring operation, running on just over $4.3 million a year. It gets that money from about 25 different countries, plus a few UN groups. Historically, the biggest chunk of that money comes from the US. Or rather, it used to."
Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
 - D.J. Kayser

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