What Does Probability of Precipitation Mean?
By Paul Douglas
Communicating the weather forecast can be just as challenging as predicting tomorrow's weather. Meteorologists look at current data and weather models before developing a vision of what tomorrow's sky may look like. Of course weather changes (rapidly) so the forecast needs to reflect those expected changes. We are using words and symbols to reflect how the atmosphere should evolve over time.
During the summer I refer to expected showers as "isolated", "scattered", "numerous" - or if everyone will get wet, "rain". A 30 percent probability doesn't mean 30 percent of us will get wet, or it'll rain 30 percent of the time. It means that on 3 out of 10 days a single point will pick up .01 inches of rain or more. That's why I avoid probabilities.
Showers and T-storms will be numerous today, keeping us cooler than yesterday. A shower may spill into Monday; more numerous T-storms return late Tuesday into Wednesday; again on Friday.
Next weekend looks sunnier and warmer, and I'm stubbornly persistent in my prediction of sticky 80s and a few 90s for the State Fair. Wait for it.
Twin Cities Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Few showers, storms. High 72. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Patchy clouds, stray shower. High 75. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, T-storms arrive late. High 80. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Lingering showers, T-showers. High 79. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: Sunnier. Drier. Better outdoor day. High 82. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Another round of T-storms. High 80. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
SATURDAY: Warm sunshine as winds diminish. High 83. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
This Day in Weather History
1964: Minnesota receives a taste of fall, with lows of 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
Average High: 81F (Record: 98F set in 1880)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 48F set in 1997)
Average Precipitation: 0.14" (Record: 2.05" set in 2007)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 8:22 PM
*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 9 minutes and 9 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 43 seconds
*Next Sunrise At/After 6 PM: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 8 PM: August 26th (8:00 PM)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
National Weather Outlook
Cloudy For The Eclipse?
Poisoned Cattle From Drought
Wildfire Danger On Lumber Lands
Due to the ongoing drought in Montana, at least one lumber company is having to take action to prevent fires on their public access lands. More from the Western News: "Citing increasing risk of wildfire, F.H. Stoltze Land and Lumber Company on Aug. 7 imposed restrictions on public access to lands it owns in Flathead, Lake and Lincoln Counties that are in addition to Stage II Fire Restrictions (fwp.mt.gov/news/drought/definitions.html#stageII) already in place. The additional restrictions include no use of motorized vehicles on or off road (unless on an open public road); no use of any internal combustion engines on any lands; no camping; no fires of any kind; no smoking; and no fireworks."
Increase In Indian Farmer Suicides Due To Climate Change
Sea Turtle Deaths Attributed To Climate Change
Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
- D.J. Kayser