Japanese Typhoon Makes Minnesota Rain

Japanese Typhoon Makes Minnesota Rain

Have you ever heard the phrase: "If a butterfly flaps its wings in Mexico, it will create a tornado in Minnesota"? The idea behind this is that even the small features may have dramatic impacts on the weather down the road - it's called chaos theory. The reason for that small rant is because at some point in the early part of October, a weak disturbance formed in the Pacific Ocean which eventually grew into typhoon (hurricane) that caused some major problems in Japan. Take a look at this image taken by a NASA satellite last week (October 7th) of typhoon Melor as it was approaching the southern islands of Japan:

At 3pm (Tokyo time) Melor had sustained winds of near 100mph with gusts of up to 120mph. Interestingly, this is the same storm that is now battering the west coast of the United States:

Can you believe that this storm made it across the entire Pacific Ocean:

California appears to be getting hit the worst, here are some of the storm impacts:

Impulses from the main storm are being flung east-northeastward over the Rockies and through the woods - and to grandmothers house it goes... These weaker storms tend to get ripped apart as they make their way over the higher elevations, so we (here in Minnesota) will get the left-overs. Unlike earlier this week, accumulating snow will be harder to find through central and southern Minnesota because temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere will be slightly warmer. Latest computer runs show a little over 0.50" of liquid rain through Friday morning.

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Wednesday: Light rain/snow mix possible. High: 40

Wednesday Night: Rain/snow mix lingers. Low: 34

Thursday: Spotty light rain/snow showers continue. High: 41

Friday: Mostly cloudy with spotty rain showers, still cold. High: 43

Saturday: Brighter and warmer: High near 50

Sunday: Sunny, even warmer. High mid 50's

Unusual October Snow

Unusual October Snow

Our unusual October snow has been subject of disgust and discontent as of late with record and near record snowfall amounts being set. Saturday's snowfall of 0.9" at the St. Cloud Airport set a daily snowfall record, but Monday's snowfall of 1.6" was 2.0" shy of a record for the 12th of October. Regardless of the amount, it's a little unusual to see snow this early in the season. We've only seen three other dates with measurable snow earlier than yesterday:

1.) 0.2" on September 21, 1995
2.) 0.4" on October 9, 1970
3.) 0.9" on October 10, 2009
4.) 3.6" on October 12, 1969 & 1.6" on October 12, 2009

Here are some totals from Monday's snow event:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

...EARLY OCTOBER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS - UPDATED...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
4.20   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           1100 AM
               U OF MN ST PAUL CAMPUS
4.00   4 SSE SILVER CREEK       MN  WRIGHT           0955 AM
3.60   2 N CHASKA               MN  CARVER           1100 AM
3.60   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0334 PM
3.50   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0213 PM
3.50   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           1115 AM
3.50   MAPLEWOOD                MN  RAMSEY           1100 AM
3.50   STILLWATER               MN  WASHINGTON       1100 AM
3.50   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           1035 AM
3.00   RIDGELAND                WI  DUNN             0250 PM
3.00   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0115 PM
3.00   PLYMOUTH                 MN  HENNEPIN         1150 AM
2.80   PRIOR LAKE               MN  SCOTT            1100 AM
2.60   1 SSW JORDAN             MN  SCOTT            0800 AM
2.60   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0715 AM
2.50   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0115 PM
2.50   GENEVA                   MN  FREEBORN         1248 PM
2.50   WILLMAR                  MN  KANDIYOHI        0800 AM
2.50   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0700 AM
2.50   BOYD                     MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0700 AM
2.50   HAMBURG                  MN  CARVER           0700 AM
2.40   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         1248 PM
2.30   FRIDLEY                  MN  ANOKA            0930 AM
2.30   DASSEL                   MN  MEEKER           0700 AM
2.20   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             1027 AM
2.20   3 SE LAKE ELMO           MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
2.10   ROBERTS                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM
2.00   SAUK RAPIDS              MN  BENTON           1058 AM
2.00   PLYMOUTH                 MN  HENNEPIN         0715 AM
2.00   CHASKA                   MN  CARVER           0700 AM
2.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0700 AM
1.80   MORRIS                   MN  STEVENS          0700 AM
1.60   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          0115 PM
1.50   WATERVILLE               MN  LE SUEUR         1000 AM
1.50   1 SE HENDERSON           MN  LE SUEUR         0800 AM
1.50   GAYLORD                  MN  SIBLEY           0700 AM
1.50   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM
1.40   HAMMOND                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM
1.30   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
               STATE UNIVERSITY
1.20   CAMERON                  WI  BARRON           1130 AM
1.20   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          1015 AM
1.20   2 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0832 AM
1.20   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          0700 AM
1.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       1248 PM
1.00   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
1.00   OWATONNA                 MN  STEELE           0800 AM
1.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0715 AM
1.00   MELROSE                  MN  STEARNS          0700 AM
1.00   SPRINGFIELD              MN  BROWN            0700 AM
1.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM
0.80   RICE                     MN  BENTON           0700 AM
0.70   MILACA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0700 AM

The rest of the week looks to stay unsettled with more scattered snow and light rain showers. Here's the weather map for Thursday afternoon - note how most of the moisture stay west of the the area.

October Numbers:
Temperatures so far through the first 12 days of the month are running nearly 9.0 degrees cooler than average and almost 2.8" above normal precipitation.

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun and cold. High: 40

Tuesday Night: Increasing clouds, slight chance of light snow developing. Low: 31

Wednesday: Light rain/snow mix possible. High: 40

Thursday: Slight chance of spotty light rain showers. (possibly mixed with wet snow north of Brainerd). High: 41

Friday: Mostly cloudy with spotty rain showers, still cold. High: 45

Saturday: Brighter and warmer: High near 50

Sunday: Sunny, even warmer. High mid 50's

Good News... Storm Diverts South!

Good News... Storm Diverts South!

New model runs show the snow storm diverting south across southern Minnesota. For those who where planning on shoveling for the 1st (perhaps 2nd) time this season, we've missed out. The Winter Storm Watch that was in effect last night has been canceled. Snow accumulations across central Minnesota are expected to be much less than previously thought. It is important to keep in mind that storm systems can be very finicky and any deviation in the track can mean a big change in snowfall amounts. Our potential 2" to 5" has gone down to less than 1" by Monday afternoon. Here's the text from the NWS:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS
CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

ITS APPEARS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAD BEEN POSTED EARLIER...AND IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
SNOW TOTAL WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR TWO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO THREE INCHES.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND END BY MID
AFTERNOON. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY AND EXPECT
SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...HOWEVER...TRAVEL SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH
IMPACTED BY THE SNOWFALL.

Here's the Evidence:

Yesterday's Run:

Today's Run (Note the change in storm track... today's run is much farther south):


Thus the change in Weather Weather Advisories:

Yesterday's Watches:

Today's Advisories:
(Everything shaded in purple is under a Winter Weather Advisory through Monday)



At this point, the forecast snow totals stand as is:
Duluth: Trace/Flurries
St. Cloud: Less than 1"
Twin Cities: 1" to 3" (Less northern metro and more southern metro)
Mankato: 2" to 4"


Here's the Winter Weather Advisory Text from the NWS:

.SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
LIKELY IN THE FAIRMONT AND ALBERT LEA AREAS. SNOW TOTALS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
BY MONDAY EVENING.

THUS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MAJOR CITIES INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY ARE MINNEAPOLIS...SAINT
PAUL...REDWOOD FALLS...MANKATO...FARIBAULT...HUTCHINSON...ALBERT
LEA AND NEW RICHMOND.

THIS WILL BE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE SNOW
COULD ADVERSELY IMPACT MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE MONDAY...AND ALSO DURING THE BULK OF THE DAY ON MONDAY
OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MOTORISTS
ARE ADVISED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY...SLOW DOWN...REDUCE YOUR SPEED
WHEN ENCOUNTERING CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. YOU SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN A
SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU.

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Monday: Cloudy with flurries and light snow showers. No accumulation expected. High: 36.

Monday Night: Flurries ending. Not completely overcast and cold, hard freeze likely. Low: 24

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and cold. High: 41

Wednesday: Clouds increase, light rain/snow mix possible. High: 46

Thursday: Rain tapers (possibly mixed with wet snow north of Brainerd). High: 44

Friday: Mostly cloudy with spotty rain showers, still cold. High: 45

Saturday: Brighter and warmer: High near 50

Sunday: Sunny, even warmer. High mid 50's

Hassle Factor Nearing 5 for Monday Commute?

Hassle Factor Nearing 5 for Monday Commute?

Really!? Are you kidding me?

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRANITE FALLS...LITCHFIELD...
MONTICELLO...TO PRINCETON.

Need I say anymore? Here's the latest on the Winter Storm Watch from the National Weather Service:


The Winter Storm Watch extends southwestward into northern Nebraska.


Doesn't this seem a little too early? Take a look at this extensive October Snow History Data from the State Climatology Office:

October Snow History

How rare is measurable snow this early in the season? In recent years it has been uncommon to see measurable snow in October in the Twin Cities. The last time there was measurable snow in October in the Twin Cities was .2 (two tenths) of an inch on October 20 and .4 (four tenths) of an inch on October 21, 2002. The most snow for the month of October is (of course) the 1991 Halloween Blizzard with 8.2 inches, which all fell on October 31.

What is more unusual is having measurable snow fall in the first half of the month. This has happened only eight times in the last 60 years, with the most snow being 2.5 inches on October 10, 1977.

Dates of measurable snow in the Twin Cities from October 1-15 since 1948

 Year Month Day Precip Tmax Tmin Tavg Snowfall Snowdepth
1959  10     8   0.32   56   32   44      0.3        0
1959  10    12   0.20   37   31   34      2.0        0
1966  10    15   1.24   42   33   38      0.2        0
1969  10    12   0.69   42   33   38      2.0        0
1969  10    13   0.08   41   34   38      0.4        1
1977  10    10   0.48   49   32   41      2.5        0
1977  10    11   0.06   43   33   38      0.5        0
1992  10    15   0.21   44   31   38      0.3        0

The earliest measurable snow on record for the Twin Cities is .4 inches on September 24, 1985 which fell during the afternoon and surprised many people.

Statewide, there's been Octobers in recent years with significant snow, mostly confined to the northern half of the state. As recently as October 26, 2008 there was windswept snow with 3.3 inches near Dalton in Otter Tail County. On October 12-13, 2006 there was measurable snow over northeast Minnesota. A larger storm also hit northeast Minnesota on October 27-28, 2003. The largest October snowstorm in recent years that hit farther south was on October 20-21, 2002. This storm dropped eight to nine inches in a narrow band over central Minnesota with the heaviest total being 9 inches at Little Falls.

This is what the weather map looks like for Monday at 1pm (6hr accumulated precipitation from 7am to 1pm):


BUFKIT Weather Model:

Take a look at the image above. There are two red circles, the one on the right in the middle of the screen shows light snow at this time and the red circle on the left shows the amount of precipitation accumulated through the time in red box in the lower right-hand part of the picture. (Nearly 0.80") Keep in mind that the ground is still fairly mild, so the first batch of snow that fall will likely melt on contact, but we are likely to see some accumulation with this system. It will also have a major impact on Monday travel - the dreaded Hassle Factor is likely to rise into the highest category "5" BE WARNED NOW. Take it easy on the roads Monday. Saturday morning was a mess with numerous accidents reported and we didn't even have that much snow. It just takes some time getting used to driving in the snow and ice once again... hang in there.

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Sunday: Sunny start, clouds increase during PM hours. High: 42

Sunday night: Another chance of snow, A light coating already by the Monday morning commute. Low: 28

Monday: Snow showers likely. Winter Storm Watch in effect. Accumulations likely early. High: 35

Tuesday: Cool sunshine much of the day. High: 40

Wednesday: Clouds increase, a cold rain late in the day. High: 46

Thursday: Rain tapers (possibly mixed with wet snow north of Brainerd). High: 44

Saturday flurries... Sunday night snow?

Saturday flurries... Sunday night snow?

Man O Man - what have we gotten our selves into? If the current weather pattern continues, this could be a LONG winter. We went from an extended summer in September to a chilling hint of winter in October. All or nothing seems to be the appropriate phrase when talking about our crazy, Minnesota weather in recent weeks. Though, when have you ever found our weather to fit the norm? First of the season flurries will likely be found statewide through early afternoon today, but another system sweeping up from the southwest will bring a fresh batch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and combine with cold air already entrenched across the area to create a coating of white across central and northern Minnesota... at least that's what the latest weather models look like. Our focus lately has been on this morning with the first flurries/coating of the season, but this next system seems to have flown under proverbial radar. Take a look at the National Weather Services Weather Story image below:


Again, today's flurries early will come as a shock - you may double-take and rub your eyes a while if/when you see those first initial flakes, but Sunday night into Monday system is the one we'll have to watch. Here's a quick look at the weather maps for Sunday night/Monday (I'll explain):


The first image on the left show the precipitation type: Blue indicates snow. The image on the right show the 12 hour accumulated precipitation from 7am to 7pm Monday: Yellow and orange coloring indicates 0.40" to 0.50" with a bulls-eye near Duluth at 0.90". A general rule of thumb for snow forecasting is a 10 to 1 ratio meaning for every 1" of liquid there is 10" of snow. If it holds true in this case, there could be spots through northern Minnesota that see nearly 4" of snow by Monday evening. Things to consider: We would likely not see an all snow event; there would likely be periods of rain and snow during the daylight hours. Also, the ground is still quite mild, so most of the snow that falls would melt. I should also mention that, before we go jumping the gun on accumulating snow, we still have some time to pour over the ever changing weather models that are particularly finicky during spring and fall storms. Any deviation in a storm track can change the freezing line (rain/snow line) north or south by several miles. It's not all that cut and dry, but it sure makes for an interesting forecast and certainly makes my job more interesting. For now, let's just keep an eye on things, but be warned that certain areas of Minnesota by dinner-time Monday could be a little on the wintry side, which is well ahead of schedule.

** Forecast for St. Cloud State University Homecoming, 1 pm Saturday (vs. Crookston)

Clouds and a few stray flurries giving way to peeks of sun during the second half. Take a heavy jacket or light coat, gametime temperatures from 35-38. Winds gusting to 15-20 will make it feel more like 20. Yes, nothing like an invigorating mid October wind chill to get the heart pumping a little faster.

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Saturday: Light snow in the morning, a coating to 1/2" possible. Windy with some partial afternoon clearing possible. Winds: West 10-20 (windchill: dipping into the 20s). High: 37

Tonight: Partly to mostly clear and cold. Hard freeze likely. Low: 23

Sunday: Sunny start, clouds increase during PM hours. High: 42

Sunday night: Another chance of snow, a little slush possible by Monday morning. Low: 30

Monday: Snow showers with light accumulations possible. High: 40

Tuesday: Cool sunshine much of the day. High: 47

Wednesday: Clouds increase, a cold rain late in the day. High: 46

Thursday: Rain tapers (possibly mixed with wet snow north of Brainerd). High: 42

Saturday coating of snow?

Is it too late to become an airline pilot? That would have been my second career choice (up in the clouds, up IN the weather, I can't think of a nicer place to spend much of my day). I tried to get my private pilot's license, spent about 8 hours in the air (flying with a trainer), and then one day I landed in a strong cross-wind, "crabbing" into a 25 knot breeze at Flying Cloud airport. I got out and kissed the ground. At that point I had a pretty good hunch I didn't have the right stuff to be a pilot.

The reason I bring this up: I really don't want to be the guy to tell you that accumulating snow SEEMS to be on the way, a cool, frosty inch of snow possible over southern Minnesota roughly 5 weeks earlier than "average". Whatever happened to average, by the way? I'd like to go just one year with average weather here in Minnesota, where the weather is routinely anything but! Which begs the question: "if you have one foot in ice water, the other foot in boiling water, do you feel average? I didn't think so.

Yes, it's chilly out there right now, temperatures running 10-15 degrees below average (whatever that is). But a reinforcing cold front is on the way, and there should be enough moisture present for a period of light, slushy snow late tonight and early Saturday. The latest NAM model (probably the most accurate and reliable) is hinting at about half an inch for St. Cloud, maybe an inch for the suburbs of the Twin Cities, with as much as 1-3" possible....POSSIBLE for far southeastern Minnesota, and more than 4" for southwestern Minnesota.

May I be excused?

Hey, I like snow, especially between Thanksgiving and April Fool's Day. But we can't order up weather, ala carte, and probably never will. So all we can do is track it, predict it, try to be ready for Mother Nature's various tantrums and eccentricities, and do our best to muddle through. And then brag about it, of course. If we have to endure crazy weather the least we can do is boast about our ability to survive a long, character-building Minnesota winter. A super-sized winter.

Latest Snowfall Prediction, based on the 1 pm output of the GFS computer model. To see the very latest computer output click here.

No worries today, just a steady, gradual increase in cloud cover, temperatures stuck mainly in the 40s. Any wet snow would arrive late tonight and continue through the morning hours on Saturday. Ground temperatures are still relatively warm, so much of the snow will probably melt on contact. But with temperatures at, or just below, the freezing mark, a little slush may accumulate Saturday morning (most of whatever falls will probably be gone by afternoon from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities). But over southwestern and southeastern Minnesota, where amounts may be more impressive, even enough to scrape and shovel, wet snow may linger on the ground much of the day.

Still with me? You haven't flung your PC out the nearest open window? Just think how excited the KIDS will be? Especially 25-55 year old kids with snowmobiles, just aching to fire up their favorite sleds! Skies will start to clear out Saturday afternoon behind this (rude) reinforcing cold front, and the sun should be out much of Sunday, when we may even sample 40 degrees (only 20 degrees below "average"). Does this mean a nasty winter is definite? No. The National Weather Service is sticking with their "significantly warmer than average" prediction through December. But looking at the maps I'm starting to have my doubts.

Time to head down to the airport to practice my "touch 'n goes"....

WRF/NMM Model Output valid 1 pm Saturday. This map shows accumulated precipitation (in this case the atmosphere aloft should be cold enough for wet snow, temperatures throughout the lowest mile of the sky overhead below freezing). Some of the snow will probably melt on contact, with the heaviest amounts predicted for the southern quarter of Minnesota.

** Forecast for St. Cloud State University Homecoming, 1 pm Saturday (vs. Crookston)

Clouds and a few stray flurries giving way to peeks of sun during the second half. Take a heavy jacket or light coat, gametime temperatures from 35-38. Winds gusting to 15-20 will make it feel more like 20. Yes, nothing like an invigorating mid October wind chill to get the heart pumping a little faster.

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Partly sunny, cooler than average. Winds: SW -10. High: 47

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, a period of wet snow possible late. Low: 29

Saturday: Light snow in the morning, a coating to 1/2" possible. Windy with some partial afternoon clearing possible. Winds: West 10-20 (windchill: dipping into the 20s). High: 37

Saturday night: Clearing, hard freeze. Low: 26

Sunday: Sunny start, clouds increase during PM hours. High: 42

Sunday night: Another chance of light snow, a little slush possible by Monday morning. Low: 31

Monday: Flurries taper, getting sunnier - stiff breeze. High: 44

Tuesday: Cool sunshine much of the day. High: 47

Wednesday: Clouds increase, a cold rain late in the day. High: 46

Thursday: Rain tapers (possibly mixed with wet snow north of Brainerd). High: 42

First Freeze On The Way

End of the Growing Season? Predicted low temperatures for Saturday night/Sunday morning. A hard freeze is defined as at least 3 hours colder than 28 degrees, cold enough to kill of most plant life (including ragweed!) Allergy sufferers may be breathing a bit easier by earlier next week, but if you have some plants you want to keep around a bit longer, consider bringing them indoors or covering them up by tomorrow evening.



Yesterday was a sunny relief, a tonic for the soul, a blue-sky reminder of how nice autumn can be here in the great state of Minnesota. Having that sun out seems to make all the difference. I've found that's the case pretty much yearround - yes, the temperature matters, but what matters MORE is the presence or absence of sunlight. It can be -15 F, but if the sun is shining brightly people will be in a better mood than when it's 45 and gray for a week in a row. That would imply that people are generally happier the farther south and west they live, that people in California, Texas and Florida are routinely happier than residents of Washington, Minnesota, Michigan and Maine. Not sure I'm ready to float that theory - many factors go into true happiness, but call me crazy: I'm thinking of buying one of those full-spectrum lights this winter, you know, the lights that imitate the sun? Instead of just one frequency these (more expensive) light bulbs shine with multiple frequencies, just like the sun, and they can pull SAD sufferers out of their dark, lonely funk. SAD is real, btw - a lack of sun affects the production of melatonin, a hormone in your body, and that can leave many people feeling groggy, depressed and irritable, with a strange urge for donuts (or any other carbs) and an even stronger desire to curl up into the fetal position and hibernate for a few months. That's probably unrealistic for most of us, so you should do something about it, if you suspect you fit the profile. Women are more likely to suffer from SAD than men. Up to 10% of the population may be affected (some people seem to have a much tougher time than others). The good news: There are solutions: including full spectrum light bulbs and medication. The most important bit of advice: see your doctor before you do anything. You don't have to sit there (in the dark, under a depressingly gray sky)...and suffer.



More on seasonal affective disorder (SAD), which is far more common in Minnesota and Wisconsin than it is in Florida or Arizona.....click here.

A colder front arrives today on gusty northwest winds - the latest models bring this wind-shift through dry for most of Minnesota, steadier rains to our south over Iowa, possibly brushing far southern counties, near Albert Lea and Austin. We'll be lucky to see 50 this afternoon, with afternoon temperatures stuck in the 40s from Friday into Monday of next week. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Friday night, and there may be just enough moisture for a few flurries across parts of Minnesota - a few of us could even wake up to flurries Saturday morning, especially if you're up early. A very light, slushy coating can't be ruled out altogether (although ground temperatures are still warm - even if we do see a little snow Friday night most of it will probably melt on contact). The next chance of flurries, even a period of very light snow comes Sunday night, as an area of low pressure tracks off to our south and east. Again, any amounts in the "nuisance" range, but the fact that we're talking about flurries during the first week of October may be distressing to some - yes, it's coming about 1-2 weeks earlier than usual, but these premature flakes do NOT necessarily mean a harsher winter is in store. Chalk this up to random weather. There's a good chance we'll see at least 1 or 2 more spells of Indian Summer, with more 60s - I wouldn't be shocked to see another day with a 70-degree high, maybe third week of October.


Early Winter Outlook, October through December. From CPC, the Climate Prediction Center (a division of NOAA in Washington D.C.). I know the Weather Service is basing their prediction of significantly milder weather over the next 90 days on the mild El Nino brewing in the equatorial Pacific ocean waters. Approximately 2 out of 3 El Nino winters wind up being milder and drier for the northern tier of the USA, including Minnesota. Odds favor milder through Christmas, but it's by no means a sure thing. It never is.

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: A mix of scrappy clouds and sun, cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-20+ High: near 50

Tonight: Clearing, frosty by morning outside of town. Low: 32

Friday: Intervals of sunshine, feels more like early November. High: 47

Friday night: More clouds, a few random flurries possible. Low: 30

Saturday: Partly cloudy, still chilly (stray flake can't be ruled out, especially far northern MN). High: 42 (wind chill in the 20s).

Sunday: Hard freeze early. Sunny start gives way to increasing clouds. High: 44

Monday: Patchy clouds, few flurries possible. High: 45

Tuesday: Partly sunny, not quite as nippy. High: near 50

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, feels seasonable again. High: 55

The weather just doesn't matter

Twins photo courtesy of ESPN. The past 48 hours have been a dream-come-true for die-hard Minnesota sports fans. For a brief moment in time the weather is NOT conversation topic #1.

Is it me or did you barely notice yesterday's soaking, drenching downpour? For the first time in a long time the Minnesotans I bumped into weren't ranting about the weather (good or bad). No, it was all about Favre and the Vikes on a winning streak, and a serious buzz about our Minnesota Twins, who did not let us down last night. For a Minnesota sports fan the last couple of days have been surreal - as good as it gets. Well, it COULD be better, and at the rate we're going, with momentum on our side....I can't finish the sentence. Sorry. Could this be the year? I was in the Dome the last time it was really rocking back in '91. I've promised my sons that when (not if) but when the Vikings go to the Superbowl I will sell a kidney to track down a few tickets. Could this be the year? I hesitate getting my hopes too high. After all, when you walk around with low expectations you're never disappointed. And yet....how can you NOT dream?

Rumor has it we picked up a healthy rainfall yesterday. I saw 1.42" of rain in my rain gauge in Tonka Bay yesterday, on top of the 2.3" of rain that fell last week. A whopping 1.16" of rain swamped St. Cloud, 1.47" of rain fell in the Twin Cities in the last 24 hours, the most I could find anywhere in Minnesota. So much for moderation - we just zig-zag from one crazy extreme to the next....from one of the 10 wettest Augusts to one of the 10 driest Septembers. Now the weather pendulum is swinging in the other (wetter) direction again. Amazing - so much for moderation (and predictable, "reasonable" weather). Why am I surprised? It takes a lot to shock me these days...

So the obvious question right now would be: "Paul, how did we go from the driest September in recent memory to 3-5" of rain in the first week of October? Great question. For much of September weather patterns over North America were in a bizarre holding pattern, a stalled storm over the southeast drenching Georgia with a hurricane's worth of rain, some 10-20" amounts, while high pressure stagnated over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, resulting in light winds, lukewarm sun and a touch of smog, for nearly 3 straight weeks! Now the weather map looks more typical for October, weather systems "progressive" (translation: they're moving at 20-40 mph, like they should!) The storm track has been just to our south since late September, slow-moving storms able to soak up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and hurl it northward. The slow forward motion prolonged the rain, warmth and moisture running up and over chilly air lingering over Minnesota, this "overrunning" pattern resulting in widespread, drenching rains - just the kind of rain we needed, in light of the lingering drought. It's just what farmers and gardeners needed, a multi-million dollar rain capable of recharging soil moisture AND filling up area lakes, which are still down anywhere from 1-3 feet. We really needed this rain, and it came - in the nick of time, before the ground has a chance to freeze up rock-solid. That's still about a month away.

Surface Weather Map valid Tuesday evening at 10 pm. Check out the intense bulls-eye low pressure system over far eastern Lake Superior. The isobars are packed tightly together, whipping up 30-40 mph winds over the Great Lakes. Yes, the gales of November are blowing a bit early this year.

The S-word has been thrown around in recent days, and I want to bring us all back down to earth. No cause for panic (or wild celebration). No, it's still early to wax up your favorite skis (or snowmobile). Yes, the air overhead will (in theory) be cold enough for snow by Friday afternoon. But the rush of chilled, Canadian air will quickly shove any lingering moisture to our east, limiting any snow flurries to far northern counties of Minnesota over the weekend. You'll need to dig out the heavy jackets though - daytime highs stuck in the 40s much of Saturday and Sunday with a definite whiff of wind chill whipping up out there.

That disclaimer aside: check out the map below. If (and it's a very big if) it verifies - residents of southern Minnesota could theoretically wake up a light coating of white Saturday morning, around the breakfast hour. The models are hinting at a weak wave of low pressure racing eastward behind the cold front, a brief burst of upward motion capable of snow flurries or snow showers - best chance near the Iowa border. Could there be a light coating of slush in the Twin Cities metro area? Yes. The odds are probably less than 1 in 3, but there's a chance. I know - it's way too early. BTW, this next cold front will probably come through dry on Thursday, winds shifting around to the northwest. By Friday there will be NO doubt in your mind that the wicked winds of winter are blowing a little early this year.

GFS Model valid 7 am Saturday morning. This graphic shows expected precipitation between 7 pm and 7 am (Friday overnight hours). The dreaded 540 line (approximate rain/snow line) is well south of Minnesota, hovering over the Missouri/Iowa line, meaning - in theory - it could snow, lightly, over southern Minnesota Friday night. Don't bet the farm on that outcome, but it's a distinct possibility. Stay tuned....this could get mighty interesting!

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Partly sunny, a bit milder. Winds: southwest 10-20. High: 59

Tonight: Patchy clouds. Low: 40

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, windy, turning cooler. High: near 50

Friday: Intervals of sun, feels more like late October. High: 47

Friday night: More clouds, chance of flurries, maybe a little slush over far southern Minnesota. Low: 30

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chilly for this time of year. Drag out the heavy jackets. High: 42

Sunday: Chilled sunshine, a dry sky. High: 45

Monday: Plenty of sun, a few degrees milder. High: 48

Tuesday: Sun gives way to increasing clouds. High: near 50

A taste of winter by the weekend

Deer Minnesota, get ready to see some s-s-s-now! Thanks for Lynn Seime who snapped this picture in the Black Hills of South Dakota Monday morning. By Sunday the first accumulating snow of the winter season will have piled up across portions of Minnesota (probably NOT the greater St. Cloud area).

2.38" of rain so far the first 4 days of October. By tonight many towns will have picked up another 1-2" of rain.

Cold enough for snow by Friday, but moisture will be limited - best chance of seeing the first flurries of the season: next Monday.

Potential for a freakishly early accumulation of wet snow next Monday-Tuesday across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois - best chance from Quad Cities to Rockford and Chicago area!


O.K. Let me get this straight - a week ago it was 73 degrees. In less than 72 hours it will chilly enough aloft for wet snow? True. But moisture will be limited, a surge of dry, chilled, Canadian air overwhelming any moisture, flurries probably confined to far northern counties over the weekend. By late Sunday and Monday the models are hinting at a wave of low pressure, even a weak storm forming to our south, capable of spreading a shield of wet, sloppy snow across eastern Iowa into far southeastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. Take deep breaths - try not to panic (yet). Right now I do NOT think accumulating snow will pile up here in St. Cloud or the Twin Cities. The best chance (and it's still just a chance at this point) would be far south/east, closer to Rochester, Winona and Lake City. But it's still early, and the forecast will almost certainly change/morph/mutate in the coming days. Man, it's way too early to be talking about snow. Even if it does snow ground temperatures are still relatively mild, most of the snow would probably - PROBABLY melt on contact, but I can't rule out some slush to our south and east. Frankly, this looks like a potential snow-STORM for eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, maybe even a few inches for Rockford and Chicago! I know, boggles the mind huh? More evidence that we truly do live in the Super Bowl of Weather.

By the way, we normally see our first flurries by the first or second week of October. The first accumulating snow, an inch or more, is quite rare before November 10 or so. Rare, but hardly unprecedented. Frankly, the weather maps from the end of this week through the middle of next week look more like early November than early October. Yes, we're making up for a September that was 5-7 degrees warmer than average for most of Minnesota - the weather pendulum now swinging in the other direction. No rest for the weather-weary. Hey, this is Mother Nature's way of keeping it interesting!

Visions of November. GFS Model valid 7 am Monday morning. This graphic shows accumulated rain (and snow) between 7 pm Sunday night and 7 am Monday morning. The solid yellow 540 line marks the approximate rain-snow line, running from near Chicago southwest to St. Louis and Tulsa. Although there may be enough cold air aloft, a layer of warmer air below 4,000 feet could ultimately mean a rain-snow mix for portions of Iowa and Wisconsin. Right now it appears that MOST of the moisture will slide off just south/east of Minnesota. That said - it's still very, very early...

No need to water the lawn anytime soon. Here is the 84 hour "NAM" model prediction for Minnesota and western Wisconsin, showing the heaviest bands of rain setting up over central Minnesota. The dark purple regions from the Twin Cities westward to Willmar and Morris are expecting 1.5"+ rainfall amounts. By Wednesday many towns in central and east central Minnesota will have picked up 3-5" of rain in just the last week! Rain will fall heavily at times today, the heaviest amounts during the morning and midday hours. The sky should be drying out a bit in time for the drive home later today, but I don't expect any peeks of sun until Wednesday.

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: A cold, steady rain, heavy at times. Leave extra time to get around - commute times will be slower due to standing water on many highways. Winds: N 10-15. High: 46

Tonight: Rain tapers to sprinkles. Low: 38

Wednesday: Partly sunny, temperatures closer to average. High: 57

Thursday: Cloudy, chance of rain by afternoon. High: 53

Friday: Mix of clouds and sun, windy and cool. High: 48

Saturday: Intervals of sun, chilling breeze (flurries far northern MN). High: 47

Sunday: Sunny start, clouds increase. High: 45

Monday: Lot's of clouds - November-like, chance of a few flurries. High: 41

Tuesday: Better, more sun, not as cold. High: 48

163

163

Congratulations Minnesota Twins for crawling back to first place in the AL Central division. An inconceivable number of games behind first place was taken to the last day of the regular baseball season (162 games). Now, the Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins will battle it out in one more improbable game (163) on Tuesday evening at the Dome or what is now known as the Mall of America Field, the winner, becoming the AL Central division champs. How can you beat this time of year? Baseball playoffs, football is in full swing, hockey is starting and storm systems are becoming more intense. As the cold reservoir builds in the northern hemisphere, the temperature difference between north and south increases, making the need for balance in the atmosphere more of a need. However, because the Earth rotates and the sun shines, the Earth will never be in perfect balance, thus the need for weather... to distribute incoming heat near the equator to the poles and the cold air from the poles to the equator. It's a vicious cycle, but I love it and probably wouldn't have a job without it!


Next Mid-Latitude Cyclone barrels through


Monday's weathermap at 7pm Tuesday

Accumulated rain potential through 7pm Wednesday - notice the maximum just east of the Twin Cities of 1.56"

Fall-like Weather Continues

I've been asked by many people now if the cool weather will continue or if there is an Indian Summer on the horizon... Looking ahead, temperatures continue to remain well below average through the next 7 days. Unfortunately, I don't see any major warm-ups or last blasts of summer any time soon. It may be awhile before you can dawn the short shorts and the boat cruising clothes.

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Monday: More clouds, showers arrive by midday. High: 52

Tonight: Scattered rain showers likely, heavy rain possible. Low: 39

Tuesday: Showers taper by afternoon, cloudy and cool. High: 49

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, risk of a shower or sprinkle early. High: 46

Thursday: Milder with more sun, closer to "average". High: 57

Friday: Mix of clouds and sun with a cooler breeze. High: 51

Saturday: Partly sunny and cool. High: 49

Sunday: Partly cloudy and chilly... a touch of late fall in the air. High: 50

Big(Foot) Found!

Big(Foot) Found!

After many years of wandering and searching the planet, believers and non-believers now have conclusive evidence that a Big(Foot) exists. NASA's MESSENGER satellite on September 29th, caught the stunning image of this Big(Foot). Not only is it a BIG specimen, but it is also extraterrestrial. The image was caught accidentally, which makes this event even more rare! OK, OK, enough anticipation already, just show me the image...

Sorry to disappoint... but what a unique photograph. This image was captured by MESSENGER during a Mercury flyby. MESSENGER is exploring the closest planet to the sun right now and recently made other measurements of Mercury's Magnetic Tornadoes


and Mercury's Comet-like Tail


I am fascinated with space exploration, but such a big space to explore! Where do you begin and how do you get there is always the biggest question. There is so much to learn and so little time in one's lifetime to figure it out. An Earth based observatory dedicated to space exploration is located on the Big Island of Hawaii on the summit of Mauna Kea at 13,800ft. Mauna Kea Observatory:


One More Thing About Space:

Even though it's mostly cloudy out there, you may be able to sneak a few peeks of the Full Harvest Moon this weekend. This is the full moon nearest to the Autumnal Equinox and appropriately named the harvest moon because this was the time of year that farmers would use the light of the moon to work deep into the evening to harvest their crops. This years harvest moon occurs at 1:10 AM Sunday. Watch for farmers fields to be harvested over the coming days/weeks.


2009 Twin Cities Marathon Outlook: partly sunny, dry with light winds (west/northwest at 5-10 much of the day). Expect a chilly 8 am temperature of 43, but readings should recover to 53 by noon and 57 by 4 pm.


Looking Ahead
Unsettled weather continues this week with our next best chance scooting in late Monday. Here's the Weathermap:


Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Better. Partly sunny, drier - milder. High: 56

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and cool with a light northerly breeze. Low: 37

Monday: More clouds, showers arrive by midday. High: 53

Tuesday: Showers taper, cloudy and cool. High: 52

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, risk of a shower or sprinkle early. High: 51

Thursday: Milder with more sun, closer to "average". High: 57

Back to the 50's

Back to the 50's

Oh, how the tables have turned. Such a dramatic change from where we were through the month of September. October has been soggy and unseasonably cool, so far, which looks to continue through the foreseeable future. Interestingly, I haven't made the switch back to regular shoes yet. I love wearing sandals/flip flops and I'll be holding out until it gets cold enough to where I can't feel my toes. Summer goes way too fast here, so why not! Call me crazy, but I guess I'm trying to squeeze every last drop out of this semi-mild weather while we have it.

Low pressure systems (areas of moist rising air, rotating counter-clockwise) will find their way into the Midwest over the next 5 days bringing the threat for more scattered rain showers. Each system that drifts in will bring more clouds, leeching temperatures back into the 50's (average high in St. Cloud now is 63 degrees)

Water Vapor Imagery

The water vapor image above from UCAR shows the amount of moisture in the atmosphere late Friday evening. dry areas on the map are indicated by the black or orange colors, which would correspond with clear skies. Whites and other colors indicate where the atmosphere is moist (clouds, showers and or thunderstorms). First of all, the big blob of green in the bottom left is Tropical Storm Olaf in the Eastern Pacific.

Back to the water vapor image above, the second area of interest is the white coloring over Midwest. This is lingering moisture, which is still present from the low pressure system that brought us our much needed rain over the first couple of days of October. Although we're not expecting widespread or heavy rainfall like what most of us saw on Thursday, we cannot rule out a passing shower or two today. Our next best chance of rain drifts in by early next week. Here's a look at the weather map on Monday night:


I must say, this storm is starting to look a lot like the storm that blew in late last week. We'll have to keep an eye on how things develop over the weekend, but a few spots could see 2" or more again if things continue to look the way they do now.

2009 Twin Cities Marathon Outlook: partly sunny, dry with light winds (west/northwest at 5-10 much of the day). Expect a chilly 8 am temperature of 43, but readings should recover to 53 by noon and 57 by 4 pm.




Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Saturday: Still chilly and damp. Lingering clouds, a few sprinkles, but drier overall. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 49

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and cool with a light northwest breeze. Low: 36.

Sunday: Better. Partly sunny, drier - milder. High: 56

Monday: More clouds, showers arrive. High: 54

Tuesday: Showers taper off, peeks of sun. High: 53

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, risk of a shower or sprinkle. High: 51

Thursday: Milder with more sun, closer to "average". High: 57

Multi-Million Dollar Downpour

Homecoming Weather Update for 1 pm, Collegeville. University of St. John's vs. Bethel. Mostly cloudy, cool and damp. Skies may brighten up, a sprinkle can't be ruled out, but the game should be basically dry - light jacket weather with temperatures in the low 50s.


Anatomy of a Soaker. Doppler radar estimates (as of 9 pm Thursday night) showed the heaviest rainfall amounts over central Minnesota; 2-4" amounts from Mankato northward to Willmar, Wadena, Hutchinson, Litchfield and Glenwood. The heaviest 2"+ amounts soaked the western suburbs of St. Cloud, slightly lesser amounts east of the city. But it's no exaggeration to say that a MONTH'S worth of rain fell Thursday and Thursday night. In a little less than 4 hours Thursday afternoon we saw more rain than fell during the ENTIRE month of September!

Yep, soggy around the edges and LOVING IT! I can't remember the last time I've been so happy to see a good old fashioned window-rattling, gutter-gushing soaking. In the last 24 hours many Minnesota towns have picked up a MONTH'S worth of rain, 1-3" amounts are common across the region, enough to put a significant dent in the Drought of '09 (which is still "extreme" north/east of the Twin Cities). No complaints about the pond-size puddles - or even the slow-motion commute - or the waterproof jackets you'll need for Friday evening Prep High School football games.

The heaviest, steadiest (2"+) rains are behind us now - precipitation should be lighter, spottier and more showery today - not the steady downpour we saw Thursday. Moisture wrapping all the way around a sprawling storm pushing into the Great Lakes will keep a few bands of very light rain over the region today and tonight, in fact a few sprinkles or light showers may spill over into early Saturday, especially eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin - but the trend tomorrow should be slowly drying skies, intervals of sun possible by afternoon with temperatures stuck in the 50s (some 40s far north). Sunday still appears to be the brighter, drier day of the weekend, a few degrees milder, light winds from the west/northwest at 5-15 mph. Good news for the thousands of Twin Cities Marathon participants (and the friends and family members cheering them on). My wife runs marathons and she told me that 50s, light winds, patchy clouds would be considered pretty close to perfect weather to run 26+ miles. I'll take her word for it.

A sight for sore (dry) eyes. This is precisely what Minnesota needed - a prolonged soaking rain fro a deep area of low pressure, one strong enough to pull moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward. Spiral bands of lingering showers will linger much of today, but additional rain will probably stay under .10 or .20" as the heaviest rain bands shift towards Milwaukee and Chicago. To see the very latest weather map click here.




2009 Twin Cities Marathon Outlook: partly sunny, dry with light winds (west/northwest at 5-10 much of the day). Expect a chilly 8 am temperature of 43, but readings should recover to 53 by noon and 57 by 4 pm.



Sunday Weather Details. Top map: precipitation outlook, showing showers over the U.P. of Michigan, but dry weather over Minnesota. Bottom map: 1 pm temperature prediction, showing a Twin Cities temperature between 50-55 degrees, a few degrees cooler than average for October 4. Sunday still appears to be the better outdoor day of the weekend.

Time Lapse of a Typhoon. Check out this one-of-a-kind YouTube timelapse of Typhoon Nangka as it swept through Hong Kong. Watch as 4 separate waves of windswept rain surge across the city by clicking here.

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Mostly cloudy, windy and RAW with very light showers and sprinkles. Winds: northeast 10-20. High: near 50

Tonight: Lingering showers/drizzle, fairly uncomfortable. Low: 40

Saturday: Still chilly and damp. Lingering clouds, a few sprinkles, but drier overall. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 49

Sunday: Better. Partly sunny, drier - milder. High: 56

Monday: More clouds, showers arrive. High: 54

Tuesday: Showers taper off, peeks of sun. High: 53

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, risk of a shower or sprinkle. High: 51

Thursday: Milder with more sun, closer to "average". High: 57

(computer models are hinting at showery rains next weekend, the weekend of October 10/11. It may be cold enough aloft for a little wet snow to mix in over some parts of the Upper Midwest, although it's too early to say precisely when and where - just a potential for now).