71 F. high in St. Cloud yesterday.
77 F. average high on June 14.
85 F. high on June 14, 2015.
.99" of rain fell at St. Cloud on Tuesday.
June 15, 1989: Scattered frost develops across Minnesota, with the coldest reading of 29 at Isabella.
Drying Out - A Little Severe Storm PerspectiveYesterday
was a subtle (yet blunt) reminder that, historically, June is
Minnesota's wettest, most severe month of the year. Arguably the worst
time for outdoor weddings and grad parties, too.
The approach of
juicy, super-heated air from the south, coupled with twisting winds
aloft, can create an environment where thunderstorms begin to spin.
These rotating "supercells" can travel for hours, a protected updraft
sparking large hail, even tornadoes.
Perspective is important: out
of 100 thunderstorms only 10 will reach severe limits (58 mph plus
winds and/or 1-inch diameter hail), and only 1 will ever produce a
tornado.
Yesterday's weather drama is fading as a drying northwest
breeze chases storms into Wisconsin today. The sun comes out later, and
stays out into most of
Sunday with a gradual warming trend.
ECMWF guidance hints at mid-90s
Sunday with a heat index that may leave you fleeing in search of a cool body of water.
But it can always be worse.
Sunday's predicted high in Phoenix is 118F, just shy of the all-time record of 122F, set on June 26, 1990. Truly gasp-worthy.
Meso-Circulation.
The rotating mesocyclone that spun up a series of tornadoes near
Mankato, Kilkenny and Waterville was amazing to track on Doppler. You
can almost make out an "eye" to the system in the reflectivity display
(top), coupled with a strong couplet on the velocity field (below).
Small tornadoes spun up around this larger circulation, one I tracked
for the better part of 4 hours yesterday.
Early Count: 7 Minnesota Tornadoes.
This will change as NOAA conducts site surveys, but there may have been
(at least) 7 separate tornado spin-ups yesterday across southern and
west central Minnesota. I suspect most of these were smaller tornadoes,
EF-0 and EF-1 but I wouldn't be surprised to see swaths of greater
damage. Check out the details at
NOAA SPC.
Severe Coverage Twitter Stream.
With access to Level 2 and Level 3 Doppler radar information you can
follow along as we update severe weather reports; the big picture and
drilling down to county level for more detail. Follow me on Twitter:
@pdouglasweather.
More Storm Reports.
I saw an official report of 2.2" of rain at Lakeville; 2.3" in Eagan.
You can see the swath of wind-related damage over southern Minnesota
with numerous reports of severe winds and tornadoes from near Mankato to
Kilkenny. Map source:
Twin Cities National Weather Service.
Heating Up Next Weekend.
A couple of relatively comfortable days are shaping up - you'll notice a
drop in dew point tomorrow with a northeast breeze. But as winds swing
around to the southeast, then south by Saturday temperatures surge into
the 80s; ECMWF guidance still suggesting low to mid 90s Sunday. Graphic:
WeatherBell.
You Will Never Guess What Kind of Weather is the Deadliest.
Cities, with additional heat provided by the urban heat island, are
most vulnerable to heat-related ailments. Here's an excerpt from
weather.com: "
There
are a number of significant weather events that residents of this great
nation have to endure every year. Given three guesses as to which one
produces the greatest number of fatalities, what would your answer be?
Violent winds from a hurricane or tornado, lightning from thunderstorms,
and rising floodwaters come to mind. But the weather event that
actually produces the greatest number of fatalities is heat..."
Graphic credit: "
Weather Fatalities Per Year." (30 Year Average) (NWS).
Hottest Days on Record in Phoenix.
Feel free to forward this to a friend in Scottsdale. 120F looks
increasingly likely (air temperature) Sunday afternoon. Like Venus, with
drive-thru restaurants. Graphic credit: AerisWeather.
Does It Get Hot Enough in a Car to Bake a Turkey? The unfortunate answer appears to be yes, according to Dr. Marshall Shepherd, reporting at
Forbes: "...
On
Saturday June 11th, my kids and I placed piece of sandwich turkey in my
car for 1 hour. The pan had a light coating of cooking spray. After an
hour the turkey was baked to a crisp relative to a “control” piece. The
initial temperature was 95 degrees F according to Weather Underground
App, but we did not have a thermometer. The car was placed in open
sunlight. Given the chart developed by Grundstein and colleagues, it is
theoretically possible that the temperature exceeded 140 degrees F,
however due to intermittent cloud cover (reduction in sun exposure) we
hypothesized that 20 to 25 degree increase was more likely..."
Photo credit: "
Car baked turkey (left) and a “control” piece. Pan stayed in a car for 1 hour." Photo courtesy of Dr. Marshall Shepherd.
Hottest May On Record With Year To Date Temperature. The coincidences just keep on coming, in spite of no El Nino warm phase in the Pacific. Here's an excerpt from
Hot Whopper: "
Yes, another "hottest" on record - this time for May 2016. According to GISS NASA,
the average for May was 0.93 °C, which is 0.07 °C above the previous
hottest May, in 2014. Last month is the first time in seven months that
the GISTemp monthly anomaly is one degree Celsius below the average from
1951-1980. This month the anomaly is the ninth highest for any month,
lower than all anomalies from October last year, and lower than that for
January 2007. The average for the five months to the end of May is 1.15
°C, which is 0.29 °C higher than any previous January to May period.
The previous highest was last year, which with the latest data had an
anomaly of 0.86 °C..."
Image credit: "
Global mean surface temperature for El Nino years." Data source:
GISS NASA
Future Temperature in Southwest Asia Projected to Exceed a Threshold for Human Adaptability. Too hot to live in the Persian Gulf and northern Africa? Here's an excerpt of a recent abstract at
Nature Climate Change: "...
This
threshold defines a limit of survivability for a fit human under
well-ventilated outdoor conditions and is lower for most people. We
project using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model
simulations that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in the region around
the Arabian Gulf are likely to approach and exceed this critical
threshold under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas
concentrations. Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where
climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to
severely impact human habitability in the future."
Britain's Royal Navy Warships Are Breaking Down Because Sea Is Too Hot.
CNN reports: "
Britain's £1bn ($1.4bn) warships are losing power in the Persian Gulf because they cannot cope with the warm waters, MPs have been told. Six Type 45 destroyers
have repeatedly experienced power outages because of the temperatures,
leaving servicemen in complete darkness. During the Defence Committee
hearing on Tuesday, MPs questioned company executives about the warship
failures. "The equipment is having to operate in far more arduous
conditions that were initially required," Rolls-Royce director Tomas
Leahy said..." (File photo:
UK Royal Navy).
When It Comes to U.S. Weather Forecasting: Public, Private, or Both? Here's a snippet of an Op-Ed at
Forbes: "...
Recently,
there has been a shift in the “value-added” proposition of private
companies. There are companies saying they can launch weather satellites
or run their own weather models that can compete with NOAA’s GFS or the
European model. For example, Panasonic who has long been involved with systems to provide weather data from aircraft, recently claimed to have the best weather model in the world. This immediately sparked discussion. On a forthcoming episode of Weather Channel WxGeeks we speak to them about this claim. There are companies that claim they can offer a more nimble and cost-efficient option for the nation’s weather satellite program..."
New Forecast Model Aims to Predict Height of Ocean Waves During Storms. Northwest Herald has an interesting post; here's an excerpt: "...
The USGS is running its coastal change forecast model
to predict how far a storm’s waves will push water up the beach –
whether it will go just to the dunes, over the dunes, or even farther
onto roads and property. Oceanographers are in the pilot stages of a new
implementation of the model that would predict beach changes in all
weather conditions. As part of the pilot program, hour-by-hour forecasts
of potential beachfront changes caused by wave conditions are underway
in some areas of North Carolina, Massachusetts and Florida, said USGS
research oceanographer Hilary Stockdon. The pilot program runs all the
time for all sorts of weather, not just big storms such as hurricanes
and nor’easters. Eventually, the forecasts – which give details for the
coming days – will be available for all Gulf and Atlantic states up to
102 hours before storms..."
The Weather-Predicting Tech Behind $62 Billion Monsanto Bid.
Yahoo Finance has the story - here's an excerpt: "...
Signs
of the transformation abound: drones providing bird’s-eye views of
fields; mapping software locating underground water sources; sensor-
laden tractors monitoring harvests in real time. It’s happening outside
the fields, too. Cows’ meal portions are adjusted automatically based on
their milk output. Infrared cameras identify chickens with fevers,
protecting flocks. Adoption of digital tools comes amid concerns that
food production isn’t keeping up with the world’s appetite. Crop yields
have remained relatively flat in recent years, even as demand is
increasing because of population growth and the rising middle class in
developing nations such as China..."
Photo credit: "
A John Deere & Co. Greenstar 2630 terminal."
Save the Climate and Protect America: Build an "Underground Energy Interstate" Now. I found an Op-Ed at
Capital Weather Gang fairly convincing; here's the intro: "
The
two greatest threats the United States (and other nations) face could
be solved by a single infrastructure project that could be done now with
existing technology. The threat the Democrats see is climate change.
The threat the Republicans see is terrorism on a massive scale. There
are weapons, called Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) nuclear bombs, currently
in the hands of nations such as North Korea that could be in the hands
of terrorists in 15 years. An EMP bomb placed high above Kansas City,
Kan., could wipe out the U.S. electric system and much of our digital
electronics..."
File photo credit: "
The Empire State Building towers over the skyline of a blackout-darkened New York just before dawn on Aug. 15, 2003." (George Widman/AP).
Even in "Pristine" National Parks, The Air's Not Clear. Smithsonian.com has the story - here's an excerpt: "...In
an analysis last year, the NPCA found that even parks with the most
protection under the Clear Air Act—icons like Mesa Verde, Everglades,
Yosemite, Acadia and Sequoia—continue to experience pollution that can
affect wildlife and human health, as well as the climate. According to
the National Park Service’s own data, ozone levels on the peaks of the
Great Smoky Mountains, for example, are nearly twice those in nearby
cities like Atlanta. Up to 90 percent of black cherry trees in the park
(depending on location) have sickly yellow leaves and other signs of
ozone damage, and visitors with asthma can have trouble breathing. In
California, Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks regularly have ozone
pollution that exceeds the 70 parts per billion standard set by the
Environmental Protection Agency..."
Photo credit: "The view looking into the Shenandoah Valley can be hugely obscured by haze." (NPS photo).
Coal and Gas to Begin "Terminal Decline" In Less Than a Decade, Bloomberg Says. You could make a strong argument that the decline has already begun. Here's an excerpt at ThinkProgress: "...It’s been clear for a while that coal demand is plateauing, if it hasn’t already peaked.
But BNEF explains that of the “eight massive shifts coming soon to
power markets,” #1 is “There Will Be No Golden Age of Gas.” Here is the
core finding of BNEF’s “annual long-term view of how the world’s power
markets will evolve in the future,” their New Energy Outlook (NEO):
Cheaper
coal and cheaper gas will not derail the transformation and
decarbonisation of the world’s power systems. By 2040, zero-emission
energy sources will make up 60% of installed capacity. Wind and solar
will account for 64% of the 8.6TW [1 Terawatt = 1,000 Gigawatts] of new
power generating capacity added worldwide over the next 25 years, and
for almost 60% of the $11.4 trillion invested.
File photo credit: Shutterstock.
Power Plants Are No Longer America's Biggest Climate Problem. Transportation Is. Vox has an explanation; here's the intro: "The
story here is that the United States has made remarkable progress in
greening its electricity sector since 2005. Whenever you see exciting headlines
about renewable energy growth or the plunge in US emissions, those
articles are usually talking about electricity. But power plants are only one-third
of America’s CO2 emissions. Transportation, another third (and now the
biggest source), remains tougher to address. In fact, since 2013,
transport emissions have been creeping upward again..."
Graphic credit:
Sam Ori. You can see the full data
here.
Apple is Making So Much Clean Energy it Formed a New Company to Sell It.
The Verge has details; here's the intro: "
Apple has created a subsidiary
to sell the excess electricity generated by its hundreds of megawatts
of solar projects. The company, called Apple Energy LLC, filed a request
with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to sell power on
wholesale markets across the US. The company has announced plans for 521 megawatts of solar projects
globally. It's using that clean energy to power all of its data
centers, as well as most of its Apple Stores and corporate offices. In
addition, it has other investments in hydroelectric, biogas, and
geothermal power, and looks to purchase green energy off the grid when
it can't generate its own power. In all, Apple says it generates enough
electricity to cover 93 percent of its energy usage worldwide..." (File photo: Apple Inc.)
Cable Industry Mobilizes Lobbying Arm to Block FCC Rules. Here's an excerpt from
The New York Times: "...
So far this year, the agency has proposed reforming rules on set-top boxes
so that people can pick any television device to receive cable and
online video, which could cut into the industry’s $19.5 billion in
annual set-top-box rental fees. The F.C.C. also unveiled broadband privacy rules
that would make it harder to collect and share data on users for
targeted advertising. And the agency also announced a plan to force
cable and telecom companies to lease bandwidth to competitors in certain
areas, with potential limits on how much they can charge, curbing
revenue for such deals..."
Net Neutrality Rules Upheld by Federal Court. Internet is, in fact, a utility, at least according to the courts. Here's an excerpt at
The New York Times: "
High-speed
internet service can be defined as a utility, a federal court has
ruled, a decision clearing the way for more rigorous policing of
broadband providers and greater protections for web users. The decision
from a three-judge panel at the United States Court of Appeals for the
District of Columbia Circuit on Tuesday comes in a case about rules
applying to a doctrine known as net neutrality, which prohibit broadband
companies from blocking or slowing the delivery of internet content to
consumers..."
How Glitch Fare Hunters Turn Airlines' Tricks Against Them. Looking for ridiculously cheap tickets? Check out at article at Atlas Obscura; here's a clip: "...For years, computer-savvy travelers have sniffed out these lucrative mistakes, sifting through airfare matrices for
hours until they strike gold, and communicating with each other in code
to keep airlines from following their trail. More recently, though,
aggregators like Secret Flying have made it easier than ever to nab
error fares. In the process, they've turned flight deal-seeking into a
sport—and a dedicated community..."
TODAY: Partly sunny - a drier, milder day. Winds: W 10-15. High: near 80
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and more comfortable. Low: 61
THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine, less humid. Winds: NE 7-12. High: 80
FRIDAY: Warm sunshine. Take a comp day. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 65. High: 85
SATURDAY: Sticky sunshine, plenty hot. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 67. High: 88
SUNDAY: Stinking hot, T-storms late? Heat index near 100? Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 72. High: 94
MONDAY: Storms taper, a bit of relief. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 75. High: 84
TUESDAY: Plenty of sun, cooler and less humid. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High: 75
Climate Stories...
Wall Street Journal Accepts Environmentalist Ad But Charges Extra. The Washington Post has more details: "
The Wall Street Journal’s editorial
pages may be the beating heart of climate-change skepticism, but the
newspaper apparently was willing to entertain an alternative view — for a
price. The leading business newspaper is letting an obscure
environmental group challenge the Journal editorial page’s orthodoxy on
the issue, although it will cost the group thousands of extra dollars to
run its kickoff ad on the page...."
Melting Arctic Could Supercharge Climate Feedback Loop. Here's the intro to a story at
Climate Central: "
As
global warming heats the Arctic, carbon dioxide emissions from melting
permafrost could play a bigger role in worsening climate change than
previously thought, according to a new study.
Scientists have long considered methane emissions to be the biggest
climate threat posed by thawing permafrost. Methane is more potent than
carbon dioxide in the short term because as the gas is released into the
atmosphere, it speeds global warming, leading to more thawing, more
emissions and even more warming. The resulting cycle is known as a
climate “feedback” loop..."
Photo credit: "
Wetlands formed by thawing permafrost in northern Sweden." Credit: distantranges/flickr
Climate Change is Shifting the Border Between Italy and Austria.
VICE reports; here's a snippet: "...
Climate
change is happening so fast and on such a huge scale that it's forcing
us to change the borders of a country," said head of the mapping
expedition, Marco Ferrari. While the border we were on had been
monitored since the 1919 Treaty of St. Germain, Ferrari's project,
Italian Limes ("boundaries" in Latin), is the first time that it has
been tracked consistently and accurately. The borders of a country are
"something we always consider as stable, as a political device, the
foundation of the modern state, the most sacred thing, but this huge
natural transformation makes clear how disruptive and alarming these
changes are," he said..."
Photo credit: "
Grafferner
Glacier defines part of the border between Italy and Austria. The GPS
tracking devices monitor the glacier's melt and, in turn, that border's
movement." Photos by Delfino Sisto Legnani.
At Ground Zero of Warming, Greenland Seeks to Unlock Frozen Assets.
Reuters reports: "
On
top of the world, by a fjord in western Greenland, a remote hydro power
plant is buzzing with extra water from the melt of ancient glaciers.
This island at ground zero of global warming is seeking to be one of the
few places on Earth to benefit.
Outside the Buksefjord plant, the biggest of five hydro-electricity
stations built in Greenland since 1993 in a push to move away from
imported oil, cod that usually only thrive further south can be seen
swimming in the clear water. And a
worker at the facility is preparing to grow potatoes and turnips on
land close to the Arctic Circle that is usually too cold for anything
other than lichen and reindeer..."
Photo credit: "
Children play amid icebergs on the beach in Nuuk, Greenland, June 5, 2016." Reuters/Alister Doyle.
Flooding and Climate Change: French Acceptance, Texas Denial. EcoWatch has the story - here's an excerpt: "
Texas
and France have a number of things in common. They’re roughly the same
size. They were both republics. They have delectable, widely loved
cuisines. And, just last week, both were battered by torrential rains
and flooding
turbocharged by human-made global warming. What’s different between
them? Plenty, to be sure, but given that the recent deluge is the topic
du jour, what’s most interesting are the diametrically opposite views
French and Lone Star state officials hold about the climate change connection. For the French, it’s “Mais oui, bien sûr!” But as far as the Texans are concerned, “It just ain’t happenin’...”
Photo credit: "
People
watch the flood water levels of Seine river from Pont de l’Alma bridge
with the partially submerged statue ‘Le Zouave’ in Paris, France, June 3." Photo credit: EPA / Jeremy Lempin.
India Coal Pathway Central to Climate Challenge - Bloomberg. Here's an excerpt at
Climate Home: "
China’s
economic rebalancing will see its greenhouse gas emissions peak as
early as 2025, forecasts Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Yet rising coal
use in India and other emerging Asian markets points to a 5% increase in
global emissions from 2015 levels by 2040. More bullish about renewable
energy’s prospects than oil majors are, BNEF’s outlook nonetheless warns the transition is not going fast enough to meet international climate goals..." (Photo credit: Flickr/ECSP).
The War on Science. Science communicator Greg Laden has a
review of Shawn Otto's terrific (and important) new book; here's an excerpt: "...
People
come to believe what they believe in a way that rarely involves
scientific thinking. The human mind is not inherently rational in the
sense we usually use the term today. The process of learning things, of
inference, and developing habits that guide our reactions to the world
around us, evolved to function well enough given our usual cultural,
social, and ecological context. But the modern world presents challenges
that are better addressed, and problems that are only solvable, with a
scientific approach. Science is something we willfully impose on our own
process of thought and, at the level of society, formation of policy
and law..."
* Check out the podcast interview with author Shawn Otto at
Ikonocast.
The Mistrust of Science. Continuing the the theme, here's an excerpt of a recent
New Yorker article: "...
To
defend those beliefs, few dismiss the authority of science. They
dismiss the authority of the scientific community. People don’t argue
back by claiming divine authority anymore. They argue back by claiming
to have the truer scientific authority. It can make matters incredibly
confusing. You have to be able to recognize the difference between
claims of science and those of pseudoscience. Science’s defenders have
identified five hallmark moves of pseudoscientists. They argue that the
scientific consensus emerges from a conspiracy to suppress dissenting
views. They produce fake experts, who have views contrary to established
knowledge but do not actually have a credible scientific track record.
They cherry-pick the data and papers that challenge the dominant view as
a means of discrediting an entire field. They deploy false analogies
and other logical fallacies. And they set impossible expectations of
research: when scientists produce one level of certainty, the
pseudoscientists insist they achieve another..."
Biggest U.S. Coal Company Funded Dozens of Groups Questioning Climate Change. Why? Because it was bad for the bottom line. Here's an excerpt of a story at
The Guardian: "
Peabody Energy,
America’s biggest coalmining company, has funded at least two dozen
groups that cast doubt on manmade climate change and oppose environment
regulations, analysis by the Guardian reveals. The funding spanned trade
associations, corporate lobby groups, and industry front groups as well
as conservative thinktanks and was exposed in court filings last month.
The coal company also gave to political organisations, funding twice as
many Republican groups as Democratic ones..."
Photo credit: "
Peabody Energy has funded dozens of groups that question climate science, analysis shows." Photograph: Jeff Roberson/AP
Poll: 65% of Miami Real Estate Professionals "Concerned" About Climate Change. I expect that number to rise over time; here's an excerpt from
Curbed Miami: "...
Meanwhile, the majority think Climate Change is starting to affect the market, though buyers aren't overly concerned just yet.
Its
presence loomed larger this year, as 65 percent of survey respondents
reported being concerned about the potential impact of climate change
and rising sea levels on the real-estate market. According to the
survey, buyers did not share the sentiment; only 22 percent mentioned it
as an issue.
Image credit: Miami Herald.
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