Sunday, September 25, 2016

Chilly winds today. Dry and warm for Ryder Cup

Colder Temps in the Northeast
Take a look at the tweet that the NWS out of Washington DC/Baltimore sent out on Sunday morning. Due to colder temperatures moving into the region, the tempeature dipped below 60F for the first time in 107 days. That makes it the 2nd longest stretch with temperatures at 60F or warmer in recorded history.

Frost/Freeze Concerns in the Northeast

Colder temperatures in the region have prompted frost and freeze concerns across much of the area in the Northeast and temperatures are expected to dip into the mid/upper 20s and lower 30s.

Ruby Mountains Snow

Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Elko, NV for the pictures below, where the Ruby Moutains recently saw snow from the same storm system that is moving through the middle part of the country now!

Sunday Showers
Scattered showers popped up in the wake of our cold front on Sunday. Note the speckled nature of the clouds, which shows the instability present in Sunday's atmosphere. Temperatures aloft were quite chilly, so any amount of sunshine and daytime heating helped to produce the random showers.
Signs of Fall Closer to Home
Slowly, but surely signs of fall are beginning to pop up. A few more trees and bushes are beginning to turn color and over the few weeks, we will be inundated with brilliant colors everywhere!

Fall Color Update
The latest update from the MN DNR shows that we are well on our way in the fall color department with some 50% to 75% color being reported across parts of Central and Northwestern Minnesota. Note that only 10% to 25% color can be found across the Twin Cities; the average peak there is generally late September to mid October.

More on the Record Setting September Rain
September continues the very wet trend we've been seeing across the Upper Midwest over the last several months. Much of the significant tallies were aided by pockets of extreme rainfall earlier this week. Mark Seeley from MN State Climate Office recently wrote about the recent rains in Friday's WeatherTalk, his work can be found below:
"Thunderstorms, some severe, brought heavy rainfall again to portions of central and southern Minnesota over September 21-22 (Wed-Thu) this week. Many observers reported from 1 to 2 inches, and several places reported new record daily amounts up to 5 to 8 inches. Dew points spiked in the low 70s F at a number of locations just ahead of the storm indicating that there was a very high water vapor content. Preliminary data suggest that a new statewide record daily rainfall occurred on September 22nd (old record 4.84 inches at Cambridge in 1968), but the final say on the new record will come from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. Many communities reported flash flooding, including washed out roads and culverts, and some flooded basements."

Some of the new record daily amounts of rainfall included:

7.64" at Waseca
5.15" at Wells
4.11" at Rochester
4.06" at Bricelyn
3.81" at Preston
3.74" at Spring Grove
3.70" at Zumbrota, Grand Meadow, and Spring Valley
3.09" at Winnebago
3.08" at Theilman
2.75" at La Crescent
2.15" at Stillwater
2.10" at Winona Dam
2.06" at Kimball

Many other communities with shorter climate records reported even greater amounts of rainfall, including 5.34" at Lanesboro, 5.11" at Eau Claire, WI; 4.65" at Champlin; 4.15" at Owatonna; 8.11" at Maple Grove; and 5.12" at Byron.

The added rainfall this week pushed the total for the month of September to near record or new record values for a number of climate stations in southern Minnesota, including:
13.69" at Mabel (Fillmore County)
13.89" at Spring Grove (Houston County)
10.37" at Spring Valley (Fillmore County) 10.56” at Rushford (Fillmore County)
11.40" at Hokah (Houston County)
13.03" at Caledonia (Houston County)
14.56" at Waseca (Waseca County)
"This wet September continues a trend toward above normal precipitation. Some climate stations in Minnesota have already received over 40 inches of precipitation for the year. Further at least ten climate stations are on a pace to set a new record wet year, including St James with 40.59 inches (2nd wettest year in history), and Waseca with 48.68 inches (2nd wettest year in history), and over three months to go in 2016! It is also likely that the all-time state record wettest single year, 53.52 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 1991 will be broken before the end of this year."
(Image below shows estimated rainfall since September 1st)
River Flooding Continues
Keep in mind that not all the rivers that are experiencing flooding are shown below, but those with river gauges that are currently registering flood stage are. Note that quite a few are in Major Flood stage across parts of northeast Iowa and across western Wisconsin.

Soggy Baseball Weather This Year
It was another soggy day at Target Field on Friday, September 23rd. Interestingly, there have been nearly a dozen rain delays/postponements this season, which speaks to the number of soggy days we've had this summer. Al Kuehner, the official Target Field co-op weather observer, has measured a staggering 29.62" of rain so far at Target Field since the Twins' season started back in April! Here's how the months tallied up:
April: 3.96"
May: 1.92"
June: 4.75"
July: 5.18"
August: 8.63"
September (So far): 5.38"
Wettest Start to the Year on Record for Minneapolis
According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service, through September 21st, Minneapolis has seen 30.81" of precipitation, which is the wettest such period on record! Through September 23rd, Minneapolis has seen nearly 31.50" of rain.

Wettest Meteorological Summer Record so Far (For Some)

According to NOAA, some locations across the central part of the country saw its wettest June through August (Meteorological Summer) on record. Note that some of these locations include parts of Minnesota, western Wisconsin and northeast Iowa.


Chilly winds today. Dry and warm for Ryder Cup
Break out the long sleeves and slow cook something in the Crock-Pot. I always hate to see summer go, but I am reminded how much I like Fall once the temperatures dip and trees start turning color. We're also getting closer to the end of road construction season and that's a major plus!
The mercury struggles to get to 60 degrees across much of northern Minnesota today as low, gray clouds and scattered light showers rotate around a slow moving storm system. The storm loiters in the Great Lakes region through the early week time frame, which means we'll have to deal with a nagging, Octoberish breeze; one that will have you reaching for an extra layer before leaving the house in the morning.
As the stubborn storm drifts east, a ridge of high pressure builds in allowing sunshine and dry weather to persist for several days. Golfers and golf fans will be appreciative of the downpour free forecast as the Ryder Cup comes to town this week.
At this point, the weekend looks dry with temperatures hovering around 70 degrees. FORE!
Extended Weather Outlook
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers. Winds: WNW 10-15. Low: 50.
MONDAY: Breezy. Feels like October. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 63
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and a little breezy. Winds: 10-15. Low: 47
TUESDAY: More sun, chilly breeze continues. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 63
WEDNESDAY: Bright sunshine and warmer. Not as windy. Winds: NNE 5-10. Wake-up: 46. High: 66
THURSDAY: Dry start for the Ryder Cup. Sunny and warmer. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 50. High: 70.
FRIDAY: Filtered PM sun. Still dry. Winds: SE 5-15. Wake-up: 52. High: 70.
SATURDAY: Dry. Not bad for the first day of October. Winds: SE 5-15. Wake-up: 53. High: 71.
SUNDAY: Nice! Nothing rough for the Ryder Cup. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up: 49. High: 72.
This Day in Weather History
September 26th
1980: Cold morning lows are recorded, with 20 degrees at Tower and 16 at Embarrass.
1942: 1.8 inches of snow falls in St. Cloud.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 26th
Average High: 67F (Record: 87F set in 1923)
Average Low: 48F (Record: 27F set in 1965)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 26th
Sunrise: 7:05am
Sunset: 7:02pm
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3mins & 6sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~3hours and 41mins
Moon Phase for September 26th
3.7 Days Before New Moon
Weather Outlook Monday
Monday looks like a chilly day across the region with highs struggling to get to 60 degrees across parts of the state. Dewpoints will be quite low, so it'll feel like a fall day!
Weather Outlook Monday
Winds on Monday will begin picking up out of a westerly direction, which will help to keep the colder temperatures in place. Note that winds will be fairly stout across western Minnesota and across the Dakotas.
Weather Outlook Monday
The cold front that brought steadier rain showers PM Saturday/AM Sunday will be found across the Great Lakes Region and Middle-Mississippi Valley on Monday. In the wake of the front, wrap around could and a few spotty showers will still be possible.

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from Sunday to Tuesday shows wrap around showers across northern Minnesota slowly fading on Monday and Tuesday. The rest of the week looks to slowly clear, turn dry and warm up!

Rainfall Potential
Any additional rainfall potential that we see looks to be fairly light across the Twin Cities metro through the early part of the week. The steadiest will be found across northeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin.
Extended Weather Outlook
The extended temperature outlook over the next 10 days suggests temperatures dropping back down to below average levels through the middle part of next week in the wake of the cold front that moved through PM Saturday/AM Sunday. Slowly, temperatures climb to near average levels by the end of the week and into the first part of October!
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warmer than average temperatures look to sneak back into the Upper Midwest as we get closer to the end of the month/early part of October. However, next week looks a littler cooler and could require some longer sleeves, especially Monday and Tuesday!
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
Here's the national temperature outlook from September 30th to October 4th, which shows warmer than average conditions across the eastern two-thirds of the nation with cooler than average temperatures returning to places along the West Coast.
National Weather Outlook
After a notably wet week across the Central U.S. and especially across the Upper Midwest. The last round of steadier showers and storms will move east of the Mississippi River Valley by Sunday. This will allow for several days of drier weather to settle in, which is much needed since some locations saw nearly 2 to 3 months worth of rain this week alone. Scattered showers and storms will move east through early next week and also continue acros the Deep South, where Texas could continue to see heavy rainfall.

High Temperatures from Average Monday

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will drop to 5F to near 20F below average in the Central U.S., especially across the Southern Plains. Temperatures on Monday will feel very reminiscent of October!

Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast shows heavy rainfall tapering across the Upper Midwest with heavier rain taking over across the Southern Plains and into southwestern Texas where some 4" to 6"+ can't be ruled out through the end of next week. Some of this rain cloud lead to flooding.
This was the view of the remnants of Karl from PM Sunday as it was quickly tracking northeast through the north-central Altantic. Karl regained tropical storm status after being downgraded to a depression earlier this week. The good news is that after making a close encounter with Bermuda PM Friday/AM Saturday, Karl will no longer be an issue.
Atlantic 5 Day Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, the 5 day outlook suggests a HIGH chance of tropical formation with a wave of energy just west of the African coast. Note that the trajectory takes it into the Caribbean, so this may be a storm to watch... Stay tuned.

"WMO rules on longest distance and longest duration lightning flashes"
"Experts have established two new world records for the longest reported distance and the longest reported duration for a single lightning flash in, respectively, Oklahoma (United States of America) and southern France. The lightning flash over Oklahoma in 2007 covered a horizontal distance of 321 kilometers (199.5 miles). The lightning event over southern France in 2012 lasted continuously for 7.74 seconds."
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